PitBull's Rule Tested as Late-Day Sell Program Rattles Markets

on April 15, 2025

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Our View

After gapping sharply higher and rallying up to 5496.50, the ES and NQ did what they do best — they dumped. At 10:50 AM, the ES traded down to 5391.00 at 12:12 AM.

Before I move forward, I want to say: if you’re disturbed about what’s going on in our world, you have every right to be. Watching the bond market dump, gold jump to 3,263.00, and the dollar falter — it’s a lot. If you haven’t noticed, the dollar has fallen about 5.9% so far this year and is on track for its biggest annual loss since 2017.

I think it’s something we can’t do anything about, but it will get better over time. I’ve learned to prioritize what really matters in my life instead of sitting around thinking about ‘how gloomy it is.’ I think life is what you make of it. Sometimes you can fix it or do something about it, but the winds of change are moving faster than we’ve ever seen.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s OP ‘lean,’ there’s a study that says based on this year’s volatility, the S&P 500 is predicted to move an average of 2% a day for the rest of the year. Sounds crazy? Yes — but you should be used to this by now!

Late in the day, the ES traded up to 5479 and then fell 70 points down to 5405. I was trying to go with the PitBull’s rule — that the ES tends to close in the direction it started out — and it looked that way, but out of nowhere, the ES and NQ got hit by a late-day sell program.

My lean was to sell a big gap-up and buy weakness, and I did both. But I didn’t really understand the late drops — that’s just how it is sometimes.

Our Lean

As the ES and NQ were tumbling lower late in the session, President Trump said he was looking at pausing some tariffs to help car companies. Ford jumped 4% and GM rose 3.5%.

Right now, the markets are confused. They look and act like they want to go higher — and then they dump. It’s a common theme, and I’m not sure it’s going away anytime soon. PitBull said ES 5650 and I said ES 5750, but today PitBull said he would start “sending in the troops,” short at 5600.00.

To be honest, I think the odds favor a rally by a small margin, but that will be subject to the tariff headlines. And we can’t forget Sunday’s comments by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, warning that many tech products will still face separate levies in a month or two. Then there was Trump’s social media post saying, “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’” on tariffs, and that levies on tech products are simply moving to a different bucket.

It never stops!!!

Our lean: the markets have lost confidence as money pours into the European stock markets. Clearly, foreign investors are bringing their cash back home — and that’s not going to stop either.

Today, we have the Import Price Index, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 7:10 p.m.

My guess is the weak close leads to some type of push back up, but I think there’s a brick wall at 5400–5520. It’s early in the week and that was an ugly close.

My lean is to buy the early weakness or pullbacks and sell the big rips — meaning 50 to 70 points. If the ES can hold above 5468, I think we could see a retest of yesterday’s highs.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES futures market began Monday’s session with moderate overnight activity, initially marking a low of 5450.50 at 08:00 ET, a dip of 33.00 points (-0.60%) from the previous swing. Buyers stepped in shortly after, driving the price up strongly to 5497.75 by 09:27 ET, a gain of 47.25 points (+0.87%). This upward momentum was short-lived, and prices fell sharply to a session low of 5444.25 at 09:45 ET, shedding 53.00 points (-0.97%) from the morning high.

Another bounce ensued, lifting ES back to 5487.75 by 10:03 ET, a quick rebound of 43.50 points (+0.80%). The market turned bearish again, declining to 5449.25 at 10:18 ET (-0.70%). Bulls regained control briefly, propelling prices to a new intraday high at 5492.25 by 10:51 ET, marking a 43.00-point climb (+0.79%). However, this bullish effort faded into a significant midday downturn, culminating in the day’s deepest low at 5391.00 at 12:12 ET, representing a considerable loss of 101.25 points (-1.84%) from the previous high.

The afternoon session was characterized by recovery efforts. ES climbed steadily from the midday low, touching 5443.50 at 13:00 ET (+0.97%) and 5404 printing a 38-point 3-minute candle as Fed Waller’s speech was released. The rally resumed vigorously, reaching the day’s ultimate peak of 5479.00 by 15:12 ET, gaining a notable 73.50 points (+1.36%) from the early afternoon low.

Late-day selling pressure resurfaced, pulling ES down sharply to 5405.75 by 16:24 ET, marking a drop of 73.25 points (-1.34%) from the session’s peak. The regular session closed at 5442.50, down 50.75 points (-0.92%) from the day’s open of 5493.25, yet still marking an increase of 52.50 points or 0.97% from the previous cash close.

Market sentiment leaned bearish overall, despite intraday bullish attempts. Volume was healthy with the regular session seeing 942,349 contracts traded, contributing to a full session total of 1,242,499 contracts.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) data revealed a notable sell-side imbalance, totaling -$1,245M with a symbol imbalance of -54.0%, though it remained below the critical ±66% threshold. This significant imbalance likely contributed to the late-session selling and pressure into the close.

Looking forward, traders will likely remain cautious, observing whether selling momentum persists or if buyers attempt another recovery.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

MrTopStep Levels:

Fair Values for April 15, 2025:

SP: 33.54
NQ: 134.39
Dow: 203.12

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Monday, April 14, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 78.5% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 78.6% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 78.6% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 78.6% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 70.8% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 73.8% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 29 / 38
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 49 / 1,109
- NYSE TRIN: 1.03
- Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68

Weekly Market 📈

Week ending Friday, April 11, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 49.8% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54.0% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 52.4% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 27 / 1,475
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 94 / 2,013
- NYSE TRIN: 1.00
- Nasdaq TRIN: 1.00

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, April 14, 2025

Yesterday’s session was a textbook Cycle Day 2 (CD2), which typically presents a neutral, balancing tone — and that’s exactly what unfolded.

Key Highlights & Positive Trades

Open Range Shorts Paid Early: Both Crude (@CL) and Nasdaq (@NQ) shorts hit TGT 1 early, with NQ fulfilling all short targets by 9:45 AM. ES also tested back down to 5475 with nice follow-through.
Crude Oil @CL All Targets Hit: Clean and complete fulfillment of short targets in Crude. This was one of the day’s standout sequences.
Strong Response from 5395 “Line in the Sand”: After a midday dip, bulls responded decisively off this level, trapping shorts and reclaiming key levels, including VWAP and Prior High (5418), marking it a key long setup for the afternoon.
DTS Bull Target Zone Achieved: Price action above 5395 supported the projected move into the 5475–5490 area.
Last Chance Retracement (LCR) Reversal Played Out: PTGDavid called it — the 78.6% retracement held, and price reversed up, validating the patience of disciplined traders.

Market Dynamics & Lessons Learned

Consolidation Dominated Early: The session opened with a range-bound market, stuck between 5440 and 5480. David emphasized that MATD consolidation was expected for CD2, and it paid to remain patient.
Bull Trap Above Value Area High (VAH): A warning was sounded about the failed breakout above VAH, which led to a rotation lower — a great lesson in not chasing moves without structure.
Cumulative Tick Led the Narrative: NYSE cumulative tick remained positive for most of the day, indicating bull control even amid chop — David highlighted this as the “storyline of the day.”
Afternoon Grind & Discipline Reminder: Despite a bullish bias, price action lacked clean pullbacks, and David reminded traders not to force trades. Staying flat was the right play for some.

Key Takeaways

Patience and Structure Matter: The early and late-day moves paid well if traders stuck to key levels — especially the 5395 LIS and LCR setups.
Avoid Forcing Trades in Chop: David’s call to “not short just because you can’t get in long” was a strong reminder about respecting the trend and signals.
Know Your Day Type: Recognizing CD2’s characteristics (neutral balance, range-bound price action) helped set realistic expectations and avoid overtrading.

Despite the lack of a big trend day, PTG traders who stayed aligned with structure and respected the levels had multiple opportunities, especially with early shorts and the afternoon long off the LIS.

Summary: A solid balancing day with a few well-identified opportunities. The bulls controlled the broader rhythm, but discipline was the name of the game. LCR reversal sealed the day nicely.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Tariffs & Inflation:
- 13 days since “Liberation Day” (April 2); tariffs remain the top market focus.
- Univ. of Michigan survey shows 1-year inflation expectations at 6.7% — highest since 1981.
- Boston Fed confirms tariffs are expected to raise prices.
- Survey of 400+ small/mid-sized businesses: most plan to pass along tariff costs over ~2 years.
💬 Fed Commentary:
- Fed Presidents Collins & Williams forecast inflation >3% in 2025 due to tariffs.
Auto Sector:
- US automakers gained >3% after Trump suggested temporary tariff relief.
- Analysts project $3K–$12K price hikes for non-premium vehicles.
- Telemetry: ~1.8M fewer new car sales expected (11% of 2024 forecast).
✈️ Boeing & Pharma Pressures:
- Boeing (BA) -2% after China halts new jet deliveries in response to tariffs.
- Commerce Dept. launches national security/trade probes on semiconductors & pharma imports.
- Pharma industry may absorb costs due to price controls — hitting R&D spending.
- Ireland, major exporter via Pfizer & Lilly, could be heavily impacted.
Semiconductor Developments:
- AMD’s EPYC chips to be produced at TSMC’s Arizona plant; Apple & Nvidia also using facility.
- Plant tied to Biden-era chip reshoring efforts.
Meta Antitrust Case:
- Zuckerberg in day 2 of FTC trial over Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram & WhatsApp.
- FTC may push to break up Meta; Zuckerberg argues broader competition includes TikTok, YouTube, etc.
Earnings & Economic Data:
- Premarket Earnings: ACI, PNC, C
- After-hours: IBKR, JBHT, OMC, UAL
- 8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index & Import Prices
Market Metrics:
- Volatility remains high but continues to contract (ES 5-day avg range: 342.75 pts).
- No clear large trader (whale) bias overnight.
- Key ES Levels:
  - Support: 5382/72s, 4927/17s
  - Resistance: 5672/82s

ES -Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5437.00. This level remains critical for determining market sentiment today. Currently, ES is trading around 5451.75, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating a cautious bullish bias in the pre-market session. For sustained bullish momentum, prices must remain above this level throughout the session.

To the upside, initial resistance is seen at 5497.75. A decisive move above this level could lead to further upside, targeting 5644.00 and the upper range target at 5666.25. Stronger resistance is observed higher at 5882.25, which would be an ambitious upside target should bullish momentum significantly strengthen.

On the downside, immediate support is found around 5437.00 (bull/bear line) followed by 5427.25. A break below these levels would indicate increased selling pressure, opening the path to lower support at 5391.00. Continued weakness below this support could bring the lower range target of 5207.75 into focus. Further bearish continuation might lead prices down toward the stronger support area at 4994.00.

Overall, traders should watch carefully how the ES interacts around the bull/bear line at 5437.00 to gauge today’s market direction.

NQ – Week to Week

The bull/bear line for NQ today is at 18,940.25. This level is critical for determining today’s market sentiment. Currently, NQ is trading at around 18,994.25, just above the bull/bear line, indicating a cautiously bullish bias to begin the session.

If NQ maintains its position above the bull/bear line, watch for further bullish momentum targeting initial resistance at 19,225.00 and then 19,256.00. A strong move above these resistance points would target the upper range target at 19,865.25.

On the downside, if NQ falls below the bull/bear line of 18,940.25, immediate support is located at 18,902.50 and further below at the moving average of 18,781.75. A sustained break below these levels would open potential downside pressure toward today’s lower range target at 18,015.25.

Today’s key takeaway is that bullish sentiment remains intact as long as NQ holds above 18,940.25. Traders should remain vigilant at these critical levels and adjust their strategies accordingly based on price action.