Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 15, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index; 7:10ET Fed’s Cook speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Japan seeks full removal of additional tariffs
  • TRUMP: ALL NECESSARY PERMITS WILL BE EXPEDITED TO NVIDIA
  • China Orders Airlines to Stop Boeing Deliveries
  • Investor Sentiment Gloomiest in 30 Years: BofA
  • Singapore dissolved its parliament ahead of national elections scheduled for May 3
  • US steps up probes into pharmaceutical, chip imports

 

World stocks rose after President Trump touted possible tariff changes on autos. Analysts remained cautious as uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies and
his ongoing tariff fluctuations continued to cast a cloud over markets and the global economic outlook.  Japan will seek full removal of additional tariffs, its top negotiator said today, ahead of his scheduled three-day visit to Washington. Japan hopes to
convince the US that the two countries can achieve a “win-win” situation without resorting to tariffs, such as by expanding Japanese investment in the US. A record number of global investors plan to reduce US equity holdings, per Bank of America’s global fund
manager survey, which also notes the largest two-month decline in stock allocations to the US ever recorded. 82% of respondents expect the global economy to weaken, marking a 30-year high. The survey’s broadest measure of investor sentiment fell to its fifth
lowest on record.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slip after the S&P500 posted its second straight daily rise for the first time since Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan on April 2. US short covering dominated
weekly flows, according to Citigroup strategists, with little evidence of new long risk flows. On Monday trump suggested potential exemptions for the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign imports of autos and auto parts, saying he was “looking at something to help
some of the car companies.”  The mood remained cautious after Federal Register filings showed the Trump administration was proceeding with probes into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors as part of a bid to impose tariffs on both sectors. Corporate
earnings will be closely watched for insights into how companies are navigating trade policy changes. Bank of America’s stock traders posted a record quarter with revenue from equity trading rising 17%.     

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI -0.4%

In pre-market trading, Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) drops 10% after ON Semiconductor withdrew its $6.9 billion bid to acquire the company. Applied Digital (APLD) slumps
11% after the data center operator posted quarterly results that missed expectations. Bank of America (BAC) climbs 2% after its stock traders posted a record quarter due to volatile markets. Boeing (BA) fell 3% after a report said China has ordered airlines
not to take any further deliveries of the company’s jets. Coty (COTY) declines 4.4% after BofA downgraded the cosmetics company. Hexcel and Howmet shares decline as Wells Fargo downgrades both, turning more cautious on the aerospace sector. Precision Biosciences
(DTIL) gains 6% after the FDA granted fast track designation for PBGENE-HBV, the company’s lead wholly owned in vivo gene editing program aimed at chronic hepatitis. Paramount Group (PGRE) drops 5% as Morgan Stanley downgrades the office property manager.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbs 4% after winning defense contracts in the US and UK.

European gauges are higher, supported by carmaker shares which benefited from the possibility of a pause in US auto tariffs. Euro area industrial production rose 1.1%
m/m in February, beating estimates of +0.3%. Germany April ZEW investor expectations came in at -14.0 versus estimates of +10.0. UK companies cut jobs at the quickest rate since the start of the pandemic, just before facing a rise in payroll taxes and new
US tariffs. The Stoxx 600 climbs as much as 1.2%, driven by automaker gains following President Trump’s comments on potential temporary exemptions for tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. France’s CAC 40 underperforms as luxury stocks weigh, with LVMH shares
falling over 7% due to weaker-than-expected first-quarter sales. LVMH is considering moving some of its manufacturing to the US amid Trump’s tariff threats. Ericsson AB jumped as much as 11% after the Swedish telecom company’s earnings beat analysts’ expectations
as mobile operators ramped up spending on the firm’s 5G equipment. BE Semiconductor shares rally as much as 9.7% after Applied Materials said it has acquired a 9% stake in the Dutch chip-equipment maker.  Stoxx 600 +0.9%, DAX +0.7%, CAC ~flat, FTSE 100 +0.7%.
Real Estate +2%, Banks +2%, Autos +1.9%, Media +1.8%. Luxury -1.5%, Personal Goods -1.4%.

Shares in Asia rose led by India and Singapore after Trump said he is exploring possible temporary exemptions to his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts to give
auto companies more time to set up US manufacturing. India’s wholesale inflation reading eased to 2.05% year-on-year in March, down from 2.38% the month prior, beating forecasts. China ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets
as part of the tit-for-tat trade war. China is slated to release its first-quarter GDP figures tomorrow. Japanese stocks rose with auto companies like Toyota and auto parts maker Denso among the top gainers. Singapore +2.1%, Sensex +2.1%, Taiwan +1.8%, Indonesia
+1.1%, Topix +1%, Kospi +0.9%, Philippines +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.2%, CSI 300 +0.05%. Hang Seng Tech -0.7%, Vietnam -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses across maturities, following bigger declines for German bonds after the oversubscription rate for a 5-year debt sale was the lowest since
March 2023.  Treasury yields are 1bp-2bp higher with curve spreads slightly steeper, though 5s30s spread briefly exceeded Monday’s high; 10-year near 4.38% is higher by ~1bp.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher as the Trump administration pressed ahead with probes that could broaden the sweeping trade war. The US Commerce Department said Monday it had initiated
probes into the national security impact of semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, a precursor to imposing tariffs. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, meanwhile, said that the inflationary impact of the trade war would be temporary, with interest-rate
cuts “very much” on the table in the second half. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized patience before adjusting rates.  Spot gold +0.3%, Silver -0.1%, Copper -1.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices inched down on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency followed OPEC in slashing its oil demand forecast, though weakness was limited by President
Trump’s suggestion of some new tariff exemptions. The International Energy Agency slashed forecasts for global oil demand this year amid the brewing trade war. The IEA chopped projections for 2025 demand growth by 300,000 barrels a day — or almost a third
— to 730,000 barrels a day and said consumption growth will be even slower in 2026. WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas -2.5%, RBOB -0.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied, with intraday ranges staying relatively tight compared to recent days as volatility softens across the board.  Sterling
is higher for a fifth straight day and is set for its longest winning streak since July. The Loonie inches higher with focus on Canada CPI due this morning and the BOC decision on Wednesday. The Aussie$ is near the top of the leaderboard as Australia’s central
bank expressed caution over future interest-rate cuts, saying May would be an “opportune time” to revisit policy settings. The yen is moderately firmer. Japan Finance Minister Kato says he believes Japan and the US share the view that FX rates should be determined
by the market, and that disorderly currency movements could harm economy. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD +0.65%, NZDUSD +0.9%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD -0.02%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum +0.1% 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Raised to Neutral at BofA
    • Autoliv (ALV) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
    • Church & Dwight (CHD) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • DraftKings (DKNG) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $52
    • DuPont de Nemours (DD) Raised to Neutral at BofA
    • Element Solutions (ESI) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $122
    • Hormel (HRL) Raised to Neutral at BofA
    • KKR & Co. (KKR) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $119
    • Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $138
    • Triumph Group (TGI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $26
    • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) Raised to Overweight at Cantor
    • Victory Capital (VCTR) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $70
    • Westlake Corp (WLK) Raised to Buy at BofA
  • Downgrades
    • Air Products (APD) Cut to Underperform at BofA
    • Ameresco (AMRC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $13
    • Aptiv (APTV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $7.50
    • Chevron (CVX) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $140
    • Coty (COTY) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $4.50
    • Daqo New Energy (DQ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Dentsply (XRAY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Dow (DOW) Cut to Underperform at BofA
    • Elevance (ELV) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $529
    • Exelon (EXC) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Freehold Royalties (FRU CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$14.25
    • General Motors (GM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Gentex (GNTX) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $25
    • Green Plains (GPRE) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $336
    • Hexcel (HXL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $55
    • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $118
    • Huntsman (HUN) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Ironwood (IRWD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 70 cents
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $1
    • Littelfuse (LFUS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $182
    • Mobileye (MBLY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Molina (MOH) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $375
    • Paramount Group (PGRE) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $3.25
    • PepsiCo (PEP) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $155
    • PPG Industries (PPG) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Rallybio (RLYB) Cut to Hold at Jones
    • Tenet (THC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $137
    • Universal Health (UHS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $224
    • Visteon (VC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
  • Initiations
    • Adidas (ADS GR) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $131
    • Almonty Industries (AII CN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT C$5
    • Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $30
    • Apple (AAPL) Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $254
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Rated New Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $130
    • Aurora Innovation (AUR) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $10
    • Heico (HEI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $244
    • Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Outperform at GuoSen; PT $16.50
    • MercadoLibre (MELI) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $2,500
    • Nike (NKE) Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $58
    • Puma (PUM GR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $4.50
    • Redcloud (RCT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $7
      • Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $5
    • RxSight (RXST) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $18
    • SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $17
    • Tornado Infrastructure E (TGH CN) Rated New Buy at Paradigm Capital

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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