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Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2008 in Today’s Market Volatility
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Our View
April 15th, Tax Day, started out with a 5463.75 high and a low of 5413.00, opened at 5449.25 and then rallied up to 5485.00. Then this headline came out: EU EXPECTS US TARIFFS TO REMAIN AS TALKS MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS, and the ES dropped 40+ points.
I am writing this at 10:00 PM and all I can think of is that the current volatility is far from over. Even if Trump totally pulled back from the tariffs, the stock market would rally—but I don’t think it would hold. Everything seems so fragile, out of whack. I just don’t think there is a one-fix-fits-all.
No one knows for sure that the tariffs will work, but the billionaires club continues to say they will, though they also say there will be pain along the way. If there’s one thing I’m sure about, the pain people feel won’t be felt by the club.
After several rally attempts the ES got weak again late and sold off down to 5418.50. It was a very choppy day that consisted of a narrow trading range and low volumes. The price of gold, a traditional haven, rose near Friday’s record, and oil prices fell.
I think instinctively we all know this is not your average sell-off or bear market. To me it feels just like when Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and AIG went down. Like today, during the 2008 Credit Crisis, there were constant headlines and it went on and on. I think it took time for the public to actually realize the gravity of the situation.
I remember my oldest brother Bill asking me what I thought, I think it was the most stressed out I have ever seen him. We were at the Palm Restaurant having a drink at the bar and he asked me what he should do. It was his retirement fund—he had Bear and Lehman in it. I think it’s human nature to try and take the brighter side when things are bad, but it’s not a good investment strategy.
Have you looked at the Euro currency lately? It’s trading 1.13.
And last but not least, Jamie Dimon sold $31.5 million in stock. Here is the Reuters link to the story: Jamie Dimon sells about $31.5 million worth of JPMorgan shares.
Our Lean
I knew in 2008 that the Credit Crisis was going to impact everything, even the trading business. When everything started blowing up and desk volume jumped, I knew that as things began to unfold, the jump in desk volume was not good volume—meaning most of the increase was liquidation.
When those three companies went out of business, it shook the upper and lower trading floors of the MERC. Fifteen- and thirty-year relationships that brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars just disappeared. The counter-party risk on OTC and off-the-book positions was in the billions.
Our lean: You can’t make this stuff up! After the markets closed, a headline hit saying that NVDA faces a $5.5 billion charge as the US restricts chip sales to China, and the ES opened 50 lower on Globex.
I don’t know—call me crazy—but I can clearly say I’ve never seen anything like this. The ES broke down through 5400.00, down to 5375.00, and started to short cover. The above headline was clearly front-run late in the day.
Today we have six economic reports, three Fed speakers, 20-year and 17-week auctions, a GDPNow release and earnings season is well underway.
The ES moves so much on Globex before the 9:30 open, I don’t know if it’s going to open 100 higher or 100 lower—or do both. I think the late selling in the ES and NQ and the big drop on Globex was the NVDA news. My guess is we see some type of bounce, which I’ll be looking to sell. I don’t think it was a good sign breaking 5400.00, but let’s see how it goes today.
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 futures (ES) started Tuesday’s session with upside momentum in the overnight Globex trade, reaching a high of 5463.75 before pulling back slightly into the regular session open. The day began at 5449.25 and quickly gained steam, rallying to 5485.00 by 10:12 AM, marking the high of the day and a 72.00-point climb from the 8:27 AM low at 5413.00. This early strength represented a 1.33% rally from the morning low.
However, momentum shifted sharply as sellers stepped in. A swift decline took the ES down to 5433.00 at 10:18 AM, erasing 52.00 points (-0.95%) from the peak. A bounce carried the market back up to a lower high of 5472.50 at 11:21 AM, but another round of selling drove prices down to 5446.50 by 11:51 AM.
The lunchtime trade was choppy, with a brief rise to 5468.75 by 12:00 PM, only to be followed by steady weakness through the early afternoon. By 2:15 PM, the ES had fallen to a new intraday low of 5419.50, a 49.25-point pullback (-0.90%) from the 12:00 PM swing high.
A modest rebound to 5445.75 at 1:18 PM gave way to a lower high at 5438.75 by 3:14 PM. Price tried to hold support but failed, making a lower low at 5427.75 at 3:55 PM before a final bounce to 5433.50 at 4:15 PM and settling near 5425.50 into the 5:00 PM close.
From a session-to-session standpoint, the ES finished the regular trading hours down 14.75 points (-0.27%) from Monday’s cash close. The full session closed at 5425.50, down 6.25 points (-0.12%) from the prior settlement. The largest directional movement occurred during the regular session, where the ES dropped 21.50 points from open to close (-0.39%), giving back the modest 18.00-point gain seen in Globex.
Volume was solid with 1,109,820 contracts traded across all sessions. The bulk of activity took place during the cash session, which registered 881,461 contracts.
Market tone skewed neutral-to-bearish by day’s end. While the early rally showed strong buying interest, the consistent formation of lower highs and lower lows into the afternoon revealed broad-based distribution. Buyers failed to reclaim the morning highs, and each bounce was met with supply.
The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance came in modestly mixed. With a $61M total imbalance (551 buy vs. 490 sell), neither side held significant sway. The symbol imbalance at the 4:00 PM close read 50.6% buy, short of the 66% threshold for directional impact. Dollar imbalance was similarly muted at 52.9%, confirming a lack of decisive commitment into the bell.
In summary, despite early morning strength, the ES reversed course and finished lower on the day, with clear evidence of sellers stepping in after the mid-morning high. With weak MOC flows and a choppy afternoon tape, the market appears indecisive ahead of midweek catalysts, and bulls may need to reclaim 5485.00 before resuming upside control.
Technical Edge
MrTopStep Levels:
Fair Values for April 16, 2025:
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SP: 33.5
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NQ: 134.32
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Dow: 201.02
Daily Market Recap 📊
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Tuesday, April 15, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 46.9% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 55.0% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 54.1% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 53.4% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 53.2% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 53.3% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 26 / 30
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 45 / 102
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NYSE TRIN: 1.29
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.98
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Weekly Market 📈
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Week Ending Friday, April 11, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 50.1% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54.8% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 52.4% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 27 / 1,475
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 94 / 2,013
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NYSE TRIN: 1.00
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Nasdaq TRIN: 1.01
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Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: This cycle hit “SUPER CYCLE” status with 279 pts (212.46%) rally performance.
Bulls and Bears had a “slugfest’ as it was another range-bound session with declining volatility and narrowing range (relatively speaking).
Range for this session was 72 handles on 1.109M contracts exchanged.
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 4.15.25
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Cycle dynamics remain intact, although the normal targets are currently out of sync and will take some time to adjust to the current level of volatility.
Normal for CD1 is to establish a cycle low reference from which to measure the extent of the next cycle rally. Average Decline measures 5337.
PTG remains “On Duty” So if you have been faithful in following the daily trade plan briefing and staying in alignment, then you should be safe.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5415+-, initially targets 5430 – 5440 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5415+-, initially targets 5380 – 5375 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5458 PVA Low Edge = 5423 Prior POC = 5428
ESM
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Yesterday’s session in the PTG room, led by PTGDavid, was marked by choppy, indecisive price action with early bullish control fading into a “wild-card” day of consolidation and whipsaw moves. The key word for the day: uncertainty.
Market Overview & Strategy
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Early Session: Bulls had early control, with David noting a bullish scenario in both ES and NQ:
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ES holding above 5445 with targets to 5475–5500.
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NQ sustaining above 18900 targeting 19050–19150.
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While those levels were tested, the day lacked strong follow-through or clean structure, leading to what David described as “not a very clean rhythmic day.”
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The DTS briefing zones were being filled, and price targets from previous cycle days had been fulfilled. David called today a “Cycle Day 3 Wild-Card”, signaling the market’s attempt at stabilization within a broad range.
Positive Highlights & Lessons Learned
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Volume Profile Insights: A valuable educational moment came from discussion around the 4 Common Volume Profile Shapes, which sparked learning breakthroughs for several members. Jimbo commented that the ATR7 and CCI alignment helped him “see it” — a breakthrough.
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Tweezer Bottom Pattern spotted in the afternoon served as a technical teaching moment. David explained the pattern and its implications for potential reversal, reinforcing the importance of candlestick analysis.
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The importance of discipline in tough environments was front and center today. David emphasized sticking to Triple A setups, hard stop-losses, and always staying aligned with the dominant force.
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Humor and camaraderie lightened the tone, with hotdog jokes and a reference to Tax Day cash drain helping the group maintain patience through tough tape.
Challenges
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Open Range: Described as a scratch—no strong directional movement developed.
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Algos and Shake-n-Bake price action made for difficult entries and management.
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Sideways Action: Traders were mostly sidelined, with David noting the frustration of just watching from the sidelines while waiting for clean setups.
Closing Notes
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The session ended with a $3.5B MOC Buy Imbalance, but the overall feeling was relief as the group wrapped up a low-opportunity, high-noise day.
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David reminded traders to stay calm, trade their plan, and lean into education when the market doesn’t offer clean trades.
Key Takeaway: Not every day is meant for active trading. Recognizing chop and exercising patience is a victory in itself. Stay disciplined, stay aligned, and take advantage of the learning opportunities, even on slow days.
Looking forward to today’s action — the strategy is already posted for April 16. Let’s get back in rhythm.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, April 16, 2025
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Markets were subdued Tuesday, trading within Monday’s range amid a quiet front on the U.S.-China trade war. All major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower.
Trade & Geopolitics: President Trump signaled China must make the first move in trade talks, emphasizing the U.S. consumer’s leverage. China expressed openness to negotiations but demanded more consistency and a designated U.S. point person. Treasury Secretary Bessent said deals with 14 non-China trading partners are progressing but full agreements could take over 90 days.
Tech Focus: Nvidia (NVDA) tumbled over 6% after announcing a $5.5B charge due to new U.S. export restrictions on its H20 AI chip, widely sought by Chinese firms for lower-cost AI deployments.
Earnings: Premarket reports include CFG, LVS, PLD, TRV, USB, WIT. Post-market includes CSX and KMI.
Economic Calendar: Key data today includes Retail Sales (8:30am ET), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (9:15am), Housing Index & Business Inventories (10:00am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30am). Fed Chair Powell speaks at 1:30pm ET.
Technical Levels & Volatility: ES remains in a short-term uptrend with support at 5365/55 and 4923/13, resistance near 5691/01. Volatility is easing into the holiday-shortened week. Bearish whale positioning ahead of Retail Sales.
ES -Week to Week
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5435.00. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. As long as ES remains below this line, the bias remains bearish.
Currently, ES is trading around 5393.25, which is well below the bull/bear line. This confirms continued downside pressure. If sellers maintain control below 5435.00, we look for price to test support near 5303.50, with the lower range target at 5179.75. A breakdown through that could expose deeper support at 5011.25.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 5415.00 followed by the bull/bear line at 5435.00. If bulls can reclaim 5435.00 and build acceptance above it, then a push towards 5485.00 becomes possible. The upper intraday target stands at 5566.50, and further strength could extend towards 5600.00 and 5690.00.
Overall, the trend remains bearish below 5435.00. Bulls need to reclaim that level and convert it into support to shift the intraday sentiment back to neutral or bullish.
NQ – Week to Week
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 18,953.50. This is the key pivot level that will determine directional bias during today’s session. Bulls must reclaim and sustain trade above this level to shift the tone higher.
Currently, NQ is trading around 18,718.25, well below the bull/bear line. This places the market in bearish territory heading into the open. If downside pressure continues, look for price to test support at 18,422.25, the lower range target. A breach below this level could open the door to further weakness down toward 18,014.80 and potentially 17,922.25, which aligns with a deeper support zone.
On the upside, if the bulls manage to regain 18,953.50, the first resistance comes in at 19,144.75, followed by 19,382.50. Beyond that, the next level to watch is our upper-range target of 19,484.75. Sustained trade above this level could lead to a test of key resistance higher up toward 20,066.50 if momentum builds.
Overall, the trend bias remains bearish while below 18,953.50. Caution is advised on long setups until that level is reclaimed on strong volume and structure.
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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