Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ECB Rate Decision;  8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims;
10:00ET Leading Index; 11:30ET 5-year TIPS Auction; 11:45ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 1:05 Trump/Meloni speak

ECB CUTS DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE BY 25BPS TO 2.25%; EST. 2.25%

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Says ‘Big Progress’ Made in Japan Talks on Tariff Deal
• Trump: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough”
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Beijing on Thursday
• China’s Premier Li: We need to roll out policy measures at critical time windows, act early and quickly
• Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites next month before Trump decided to negotiate with Tehran
• Trump post – Had a very productive call with the President of Mexico yesterday. Every Nation, including China, wants to meet! Today, Italy!

World stocks are mixed as investors took some heart from trade talks between the US and Japan. Trump said negotiators made “big progress” in trade talks with Japanese
representatives seeking exemptions from US tariffs. Japan’s finance minister expressed concerns over the global economic fallout from tariffs, warning that market volatility could disrupt Japan’s economic recovery. Preparations are underway for a second round
of talks to take place later this month. With a long weekend ahead, investors seem reluctant to bet too heavily on the broad-based decline in risk assets. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is heading to the White House for a meeting today with Trump, seeking
to ease tensions over US tariffs on European goods. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bps today but may not offer much clarity about the effects on growth and inflation from Trump’s tariffs.

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures are mixed to higher on positive signals from initial US-Japan trade talks. Markets reacted to various earnings reports, with UnitedHealth Group plunging and Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. rallying after beating sales forecasts. UnitedHealth Group plunged over 20% after the company cut its earnings outlook for the year and reported first-quarter earnings below estimates, citing heightened care needs in Medicare
that were “far above” what it had planned for. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Beijing to hold talks with Vice-Premier He Lifeng and met with the DeepSeek founder. Netflix earnings are expected after the close. Trump criticized Jerome Powell, saying on
social media that the Fed chair should lower rates, adding “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI -1.5%.

In pre-market trading, TSMC’s US-listed shares rallied 3% after the main chipmaker for Nvidia and Apple forecast sales for the second quarter that beat estimates. Eli
Lilly (LLY) shares soared 11% after its oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron met key efficacy goals in a phase 3 trial. Hertz (HTZ) surged 15% after CNBC reported Pershing Square acquired a 19.8% stake in the company. Alcoa Corp. (AA) slips 1.5% after the largest
US aluminum producer said President Trump’s 25% tariff on metal imports has cost the company $20 million since the duties went into effect. DR Horton (DHI) declines 3% as the builder scaled back its expectations for home sales in its full fiscal year. Health
insurers are tumbling after the news from bellwether UnitedHealth: Humana (HUM) -16%, Centene (CNC) -8%, CVS Health Corp. (CVS), which owns insurer Aetna, -6%.

European gauges are lower after reversing early gains. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell before the European Central Bank’s interest rates decision on a busy day of corporate
earnings. Aero & Defense and Construction lead losses while energy shares outperform after solid results from Siemens Energy. Shares in Hermès dropped after sales at the start of the year were hurt by a slowdown in Chinese luxury demand. Siemens Energy AG
surged as much as 14% before paring most of its gains made after the company boosted its revenue and net income outlook. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.9%, FTSE 100 -0.6%.  Aero & Defense -1.9%, Construction -1.3%, Technology -0.9%. Energy +0.8%, Retail
+0.1%.

Shares in Asia rose amid optimism surrounding the progress of trade negotiations between the US and its trading partners. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9%,
with Tencent, Alibaba and Sony among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks in India and Hong Kong led gains, with notable advances also in Japan and Singapore. Investor focus is shifting to potential US deals with a flood of nations looking to avoid hefty duties.
To counter US efforts to restrict trade with Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping advocated for an “Asian family” concept and called for regional unity. US investors may be forced to offload about $800 billion of Chinese equities “in an extreme scenario”
of financial decoupling, Goldman said. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate steady while citing a significant increase in downside risks to growth. Many Asian markets will be closed for holidays on Friday, including Hong Kong, Australia
and India. Sensex +2%, Hang Seng Index +1.6%, Singapore +1.6%, Topix +1.3%, Kospi +1%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Indonesia +0.6%, Vietnam +0.6%. CSI 300 -0.02%, Taiwan -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are under slight pressure as US session gets under way, with yields higher by 2bp-3bp across maturities, curve spreads are little changed. 10-year yield
around 4.30% is about 2bp off session high. Foreign holdings of Treasuries surged by $290 billion to a record $8.82 trillion in February. Canada and Japan were among the biggest net buyers, while China’s holdings also climbed.

METALS: 

Gold eased after hitting a new record as Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a note of caution about the growth outlook. Traders take some profits amid optimism over US-Japan
trade talks, after its biggest one-day gain in two years on Wednesday, Demand for physical gold was subdued in India this week as a sharply higher prices curbed purchases, while premiums held firm in top consumer China. Gold is having its best start to a year
since the 1970s, outperforming as Trump’s trade wars weigh on other assets. History shows strong early gains often signal more upside for the year ahead. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -1.4%, Copper -2.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose to the highest in two weeks after the United States vowed to reduce Iran’s energy exports to zero and amid optimism over US-Japan trade talks. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would apply maximum pressure to disrupt the OPEC member’s oil supply chain. The sanctions issued on Wednesday, including against a China-based “teapot” oil refinery, ramp up pressure on Tehran as discussions continue regarding
its advancing nuclear program. Adding to supply concerns, OPEC+ said yesterday it had received updated plans for Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make further output cuts to compensate for pumping above quotas. WTI +1.4%, Brent +1.3%, US Nat Gas -1.4%,
RBOB +1.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen weakened after touching a seven-month high versus the dollar earlier in the session. Japan’s chief trade negotiator said currencies weren’t
discussed during trade talks, easing concerns the US would push for a stronger exchange rate. The euro fell versus the dollar ahead of the ECB decision where policymakers are widely expected to lower the deposit rate 25 bps to 2.25%. The dollar index edges
higher from near a three-year low ahead of the long Easter break. Trading is likely to be lighter into Easter, with many markets closing on Good Friday and some remaining shut on Easter Monday. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY +0.6%, AUDUSD
-0.05%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.6%, USDCAD +0.25%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.3%, USDMXN -0.2%.

Bitcoin +0.5%, Ethereum +1.5% 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $45
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $8
• Generac (GNRC) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $138
• HB Fuller (FUL) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $60
• Intuit (INTU) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $700
• MongoDB (MDB) Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT $170
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $91
• Trex (TREX) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $72
• Warby Parker (WRBY) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $27
• YETI Holdings (YETI) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Downgrades
• Amkor Technology (AMKR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Anglogold (AU) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $35
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Fubon; PT $680
• Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT C$2.15
• Beacon Roofing (BECN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $124.35
• BILL Holdings Inc (BILL) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Coty (COTY) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $47
• Fiserv (FI) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $150
• Gold Fields (GFI SJ) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $21
• iCAD Inc (ICAD) Cut to Hold at Laidlaw
• Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Information Services (ISC CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$30
• Microsoft (MSFT) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $64
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Sell at Seaport Global Securities; PT $49
• Progressive (PGR) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $288
• Sensata (ST) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $27
• Sunrun (RUN) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $7
• Teradyne (TER) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
• Initiations
• Anika (ANIK) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $21
• Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $8
• Cadiz (CDZI) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $10
• Evolus (EOLS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $21
• Gladstone Capital (GLAD) Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets
• Gladstone Investment (GAIN) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Redcloud (RCT) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $5
• Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $4
• Sunrise Realty Trust (SUNS) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $12
• Twin Disc (TWIN) Rated New Buy at Longbow; PT $12
• XOMA Royalty (XOMA) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $35

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke