Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Leading Index, Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; Boston Marathon today

Holidays Today: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, China (China B Shenzen open), Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom

Highlights and News:  

• Beijing threatens countermeasures against countries that ‘appease’ Washington in trade war
• Europe and the UK are closed for Easter Monday
• Beijing held a half marathon in which robots competed against humans, with bots tripping and emitting smoke
• Pope Francis died this morning after blessing thousands of people in St. Peter’s Square for Easter Sunday
• Mark Zuckerberg and Jamie Dimon were among top insider stock sellers in Q1

World stocks slipped as anxiety grew over tariffs, and the sell-America trade gathered momentum on concern President Trump will act on his threat of firing Fed Chairman
Jerome Powell. Most of Europe remained on holiday for Easter Monday, leading to thin liquidity. This week, talks with Washington will intensify as delegates from multiple Asian nations seek to avoid President Trump’s trade conflict, while Beijing threatened
countermeasures against countries that ‘appease’ the US. China warned it will take “resolute and reciprocal” countermeasures against other countries negotiating with the US if they make a deal at China’s expense. Vietnam is getting ready to crack down on Chinese
shipments flowing across its borders on the way to the US, Reuters reported. Japan’s PM Ishiba said his country won’t concede to all US demands in levy talks. Meanwhile, Russia launched a major aerial attack on Ukraine, definitively ending an Easter truce.
Many markets, including those in Hong Kong, Australia and much of Europe, remained closed on Monday for Easter holidays.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fell as traders, back from the Easter break, reacted to fresh reports that President Trump intends to dismiss the chair of the Federal Reserve. Trump would put the credibility
of the dollar on the line and destabilize the US economy if he fired Powell, French Finance Minister Lombard warned. Investor focus this week will be on earnings results from Alphabet, Intel and Tesla. Tesla’s stock slumped premarket as Wedbush’s Dan Ives
warned the company faces a “code red” and said Elon Musk should step back from his work at DOGE. Tesla has delayed the launch of more affordable cars, including the stripped-down version of the Model Y, Reuters reported.      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1.25%, Nasdaq -1.5%, Russell 2000 -1%, DJI -1%.

In pre-market trading, Magnificent Seven are lower, with Tesla the top decliner: Nvidia (NVDA) -3.1%, Tesla (TSLA) -4%, Meta (META) -1.3%, Apple (AAPL) -2%, Amazon
(AMZN) -1.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.3% and Microsoft (MSFT) -0.9%. Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) rises 2.7% after receiving approval from US regulators to buy Discover Financial Services. Netflix (NFLX) climbs 2.4% after the streaming giant reported record
profit to start the year. Salesforce (CRM) declines 1.5% after D.A. Davidson downgraded the software company, saying it’s neglecting its core business to pursue a “premature” AI opportunity. Spotify (SPOT) climbs 1% after Wolfe Research upgraded its rating.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADRs (TSM) drop 1.9% after the company listed challenges of ensuring export control compliance.

European stock markets were largely still shut for a public holiday. 

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher amid holiday-thinned trading, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.3%. Indian stocks rose for the fifth straight session,
driven by strong earnings from private lenders and a growing appetite for Indian assets among fund managers seeking a haven from the trade war. South Korea’s exports for the first 20 days of April fell 5.2% from a year earlier, dragged down by shipments to
the US, customs data showed today, amid Trump’s sweeping tariff policies. South Korea’s top trade official will visit Washington this week to kick-start negotiations. Japanese stocks dropped as the yen’s surge to a seven-month high against the dollar weighed
on the outlook for exporters. Benchmarks rose in Singapore and mainland China, while markets remained closed in Hong Kong and Australia. Sensex +1.1%, Singapore +1%, CSI 300 +0.3%, Kospi +0.2%, Indonesia +0.1%, Philippines +0.05%.  Vietnam -1%, Topix -1.2%,
Thailand -1.4%, Taiwan -1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed and the curve steeper with the front-end outperforming where 2-year yields are down about 1bp on the day while 30-year yields are higher by 9bp
vs. last week’s close. 10-year yields climbed 8bps as investors weighed the risk of Powell’s dismissal. The two-year yield slipped as traders considered the likelihood of rate cuts amid pressure from Trump. In a sign that investors are rotating investments
away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients have reduced some of their Treasury holdings in favor of European debt. The steepening move is widening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~9bp and 6bp on the day, adding to Thursday’s steepening momentum.

METALS: 

Gold prices rose more than 2% to touch another new record high, with spot gold trading over $3,400 an ounce due to US dollar weakness, criticism of the Federal Reserve
by President Trump, and persistent trade war concerns. Chinese copper smelters achieved record output of 1.25 million tons in March as rising prices for by-products eased pressure on margins. Spot gold +2.3%, Silver +1.3%, Copper +1.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fell due to concerns about the impact of the US-led trade war on energy demand and signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran. Iran’s foreign minister
said his country had a “better understanding” with the US on a range of principles after talks Saturday on Tehran’s nuclear program. In the talks, the US and Iran agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal. The discussions will resume
Wednesday in Oman. Brent fell over 2% to below $67 a barrel. China’s imports of US LNG plummeted to zero in March, turning to Indonesia and Qatar for supply. WTI -2.3%, Brent -2.1%, US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB -1.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar dropped to its lowest level since March 2022 due to concerns that President Trump will fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The selling intensified after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that Trump was studying the matter. The relentless pressure on the dollar led the euro to a three-year high, while the yen hit a seven-month peak. The Swiss franc strengthened
against the dollar to its highest in over 10 years.  US$ Index -1.25%, GBPUSD +0.75%, EURUSD +1.3%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.7%, NZDUSD +1.2%, USDCHF -1.4%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -1.3%, USDNOK -0.9%, USDMXN +0.02%.

Bitcoin +2%, Ethereum +2.2%.  Bitcoin touched its highest level since April 2.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Banner (BANR) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $71
• BBB Foods (TBBB) Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $36
• Centerspace (CSR) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $66
• Disney (DIS) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $112
• Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $290
• Expand Energy (EXE) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $130
• Fidelity National (FIS) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $92
• FNB Corp (FNB) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $16.50
• Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT C$105
• Innospec (IOSP) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $115
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $21
• Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Neutral at Phillip Secs; PT $950
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $25
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Simmons First (SFNC) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $21
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $660
• Wolverine World Wide (WWW) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $15
• Downgrades
• Amazon (AMZN) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James
• Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $50
• CIBC (CM CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$89
• D.R. Horton (DHI) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $109
• Dollar General (DG) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $75
• Global Payments (GPN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $78
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $75
• Infosys (INFO IN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $17.90
• Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$126
• Prologis (PLD) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Cut to Underperform at DA Davidson; PT $200
• Warner Music (WMG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $32
• Initiations
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $71
• Context Therapeutics (CNTX) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Dycom Industries (DY) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $200
• Element Fleet (EFN CN) Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT C$33
• Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $12
• Grail (GRAL) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $32
• Kanzhun (BZ) ADRs Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $19.50
• Modiv Industrial (MDV) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Staar Surgical (STAA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
• Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $420.20
• Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $60
• Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $6
• Verona Pharma (VRP LN) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Xencor (XNCR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Zillow (ZG) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke