Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 22, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity; 9:00ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks; 9:30ET
Fed’s Harker speaks; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, ECB’s Lagarde speaks; 1:00ET 2-Year Auction; 1:40ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 6:00ET Fed’s Kugler speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • HHS TO UNVEIL PLAN TODAY TO CUT ARTIFICIAL DYES FROM US FOOD
  • Thai-U.S. trade negotiations have been postponed
  • Gold Gains as Jefferies Says it is the Only Sole Haven Left
  • Harvard sued the Trump administration over its $2.2 billion federal funding freeze
  • Chinese trade held up in April despite Trump’s tariffs, data showed

 

World stocks are higher, although the mood remained fragile as investors awaited Trump’s next steps on tariff policy and the outcome of negotiations with individual
countries. The US said it’s made “significant progress” toward a bilateral trade deal with India, laying the groundwork for further discussions that New Delhi hopes may shield it from additional tariff hikes. Thailand’s prime minister said trade negotiations
with Washington, scheduled to begin on Wednesday, would be postponed. The US wants Thailand to take more steps to prevent certificate of origin misuse by other countries. Euro-zone inflation will be slightly stronger than previously thought in 2025 and 2026,
according to the ECB’s quarterly survey. BofA economists now expect an extra BOE rate cut this year, while revising UK growth and inflation forecasts downward due to new US tariffs.
The BOE’s Megan Greene said US tariffs may be more of an disinflationary risk to the UK than inflationary.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rebound from Monday’s sharp losses which were triggered by worries over Trump’s recent Federal Reserve criticism. Several Fed speakers are slated throughout the day,
and their comments will be closely watched for clues on policy outlook and reactions to rising tensions with the White House. Tesla will kick off earnings for the “Magnificent Seven” group of stocks after the close, with questions surrounding its ability to
meet annual sales goals. Verizon reported a larger-than-expected decline in mobile-phone subscribers last quarter. GE Aerospace profit beat and 3M stood by its full-year guidance. Nomura will buy Macquarie’s US and European public asset management business
for $1.8 billion, its biggest deal since the purchase of Lehman Brothers assets in 2008. Halliburton fell sharply in early trading after posting first-quarter results that gave investors little insight into the company’s outlook amid lower crude prices.       

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +0.95%, Russell 2000 +1.1%, DJI +0.9%.

In pre-market trading, Solar stocks gain after the US set new duties as high as 3,521% on solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries. First Solar (FSLR) +5.8%,
Sunnova Energy (NOVA) +1.2%, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) +3%, Array Technologies (ARRY) +1.9%, Enphase Energy (ENPH) +2.3%. 3M (MMM) climbs 3% after the company stood by its full-year financial guidance. Appian (APPN) rises 2% after hiring Srdjan Tanjga
as CFO.  Calix (CALX) soars 14% after the computer services company reported quarterly results that beat. CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 2% as Jefferies and Barclays initiate the software company at overweight. Halliburton (HAL) falls 4% after the energy and engineering
services company reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the first quarter that fell year over year. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) slips 2% after the consumer-products company reported quarterly organic sales that disappointed. Northrop Grumman (NOC) falls
8% after the defense contractor cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. StoneCo (STNE) rises 3% as Citi upgrades the fintech to buy on its progress toward becoming a small bank from a payment firm. Synchrony Financial (SYF) rises 3%
after the financial services firm reaffirmed its net revenue forecast for the full year. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) declines 3% after posting a larger-than-expected decline in mobile-phone subscribers in the first quarter. Zions Bancorp (ZION) falls
3.8% after first-quarter earnings missed the average analyst estimate.

European gauges dropped, following declines for US stocks on Monday, as investors parsed tariff negotiations and earnings. Europe’s first-quarter earnings season has
had a difficult start and there is further risk ahead, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Health care and technology sectors are the biggest decliners in the Stoxx 600, while real estate and insurance outperform. Shares in Novo Nordisk A/S slumped as
much as 9.8% after news on Friday that Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental pill helped patients shed weight and control blood sugar about as well as the Danish company’s Ozempic drug. Electrification stocks, including Siemens Energy AG and Schneider Electric SE
fell after analysts at Wells Fargo Securities said Amazon.com’s web services business is pausing some data center leases. Meanwhile, shares in Swiss insurers Helvetia Holding AG and Baloise Holding AG rose after the pair agreed to combine. Stoxx 600 -0.6%,
DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.05%. Healthcare -2.1%, Technology -1.4%, Industrial Goods -1.4%. Real Estate +0.9%, Insurance +0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mixed as traders await outcomes of US tariff negotiations with key trading partners. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung in a narrow range, ending
+0.1% on the day. Taiwan’s benchmark was the worst performer in the region while Indonesia and Singapore led gainers. Key gauges in Hong Kong climbed, while Australia’s was little changed as trading resumed following a four-day weekend. New Zealand’s NZX 50
fell over 1% even after data showed exports surged 11% from the fourth quarter and 19% more than the year-earlier period. Shares of Indian lenders rallied to a fresh record on easing of liquidity rules. Chinese logistics and payment processing firms jumped
after the government sought to combat US tariffs with plans to promote free-trade zone activities. Chinese trade held up in April despite Trump’s tariffs, data showed.  +1.4%, Singapore +1%, Thailand +0.8%, Hang Seng Index +0.8%, Shanghai Composite +0.25%,
Sensex +0.25%, Topix +0.1%, Philippines +0.1%. CSI 300 -0.02%, ASX 200 -0.03%, Kospi -0.05%, Vietnam -0.8%, NZX50 -1.3%, Taiwan -1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed with underperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities, pushing US two-year yields up 3 bps to 3.79%. The yield curve is flatter around a little-changed
10-year sector and 2-year underperforming ahead of new-issue auction and several Fed speakers. 2s10s curve is down 4bps; 5s30s -2bps.  Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year and includes $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year sales Wednesday
and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold briefly hit a record above $3,500 after Jefferies said it may be the only true safe-haven left. Bullion has surged about 32% this year, outperforming nearly
every other major asset class, as investors flee equities. Goldman Sachs Group forecast the metal could hit $4,000 an ounce midway through next year. Copper climbed to a two-week high as trading on the London Metal Exchange resumed following the Easter break,
with base metals benefiting from a recent dollar slump.  Spot gold +0.9%, Silver -0.05%, Copper +2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Crude oil prices are higher following Monday’s dip, as production figures from OPEC+ showed a decline for March. OPEC’s market share in India slumped to an all-time
low of below 50% of India’s crude oil imports in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, as Russian oil flows to the world’s third-largest crude importer continued to rise and dent the share of the Middle Eastern producers. Brent traded near $67 a barrel after sliding
2.5% in the previous session, the most in more than a week.  WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas +1.9%, RBOB +1.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches higher after falling to a 15-month low, with Goldman Sachs predicting weakness to continue. The yen is the best performing
G-10 currency, as Bank of Japan officials see no need to change their stance on gradually raising interest rates despite US tariffs, as they wait for more data to analyze the impact. Japan’s minister of finance said he plans to advance currency discussions
during a meeting with US counterpart Scott Bessent in Washington this week. Meanwhile, China let the yuan weaken against almost all major currencies to support its economy as the trade war with the US deepens.  US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.2%,
USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK -0.15%, USDMXN -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum +3.5%.  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aritzia (ATZ CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$55
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $37
    • Investar Holding (ISTR) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $22
    • Marriott Vacations (VAC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Mondelez (MDLZ) Raised to Buy at CFRA
    • PagSeguro (PAGS) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $10
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $28
    • StoneCo (STNE) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $15
    • Verra Mobility (VRRM) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $27
    • Winpak (WPK CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$50
  • Downgrades
    • Accenture (ACN) Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $306
    • Alliant Energy (LNT) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $61
    • Ambev (ABEV3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at UBS
    • Canfor (CFP CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$16
    • CF Industries (CF) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Comerica (CMA) Cut to Underperform at Evercore ISI; PT $50
      • Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $52
    • Doman Building Materials (DBM CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$7.50
    • EBay (EBAY) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $65
    • Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $40
    • Immunovant (IMVT) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $17
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $31
    • Macy’s (M) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $12
    • Resideo (REZI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $16
    • Stellantis (STLA) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $11.54
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $125
    • Torrid (CURV) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4
    • UnitedHealth (UNH) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $490
    • UPS (UPS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $98
    • Utz Brands (UTZ) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $15
    • Ziff Davis Inc (ZD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $33
  • Initiations
    • Algoma Steel Group (ASTL CN) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$8
    • Apple (AAPL) Reinstated Buy at China Renaissance; PT $241
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $175
    • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Rated New Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $65
    • Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $55
      • Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $40
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $46
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $41
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $46
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $54
      • Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $48
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $43
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $55
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $51
      • Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $43
    • Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl
    • Global Net Lease (GNL) Reinstated Neutral at B Riley; PT $8
    • HubSpot (HUBS) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $700
    • Modiv Industrial (MDV) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $18
    • Molina (MOH) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $414
    • OneStream (OS) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $30
    • RMR Group (RMR) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $24
    • Service Properties (SVC) Reinstated Neutral at B Riley; PT $2
    • Sonoco (SON) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $62
    • Vertex Inc (VERX) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $54
    • Workiva (WK) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $100

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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