From Panic to Surge: The 24-Hour, 269-Point ES Reversal

on April 23, 2025

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Our View

The YM was down 1,100 points Monday and up almost 1,100 points post-yesterday. The current rally started late Monday after a big drop, followed by a late-day 90-point rally, then another pop on Globex, a big gap-up open, a very small drop—and then it was off to the races. Yes, there were some good rallies to sell, but the money trade was on the blue side of the trading card: BUY.

The ES made a high at 5497.75 on April 14th and a low at 5127.25 on Monday, April 21nd—that’s a 370.50-point drop in four sessions. Then it rallied up to 5443 in last night globex, just 54 points off last week’s high, all in 24 hours. Like I said on my Twitter live stream, I went to lunch at the PitBull’s country club and told him the fix was in after that 90-point rally off Monday’s low, and then the follow-through on Globex. It was like Trump’s Liberation Day rally—when he said it would be a good day for a big rally in the Dow Jones, then announced a 90-day tariff reprieve—and the markets skyrocketed. Someone knew the China tariff talks were improving, and that’s why the ES rallied 269.50 points in 24 hours. The front-run headline was: US Treasury Secretary sees de-escalation with China situation and calls the situation unsustainable, delivered at a private JPMorgan conference.

I wrote about a rally in Monday’s Opening Print, and while I did say it would start later in the summer, it may have already started. After weeks of pounding the tariff drums, even slightly better news caused a huge 24-hour rally. Now the question is: will it keep going? I think so.

There was a noticeable change in price action. When the ES dropped, there were buyers at almost every level. Whether it was a 10-point pullback or 60 points, as soon as the sell programs were done, the ES and NQ futures snapped right back. I was right about my rule that after a big drop, the ES tends to rally on Globex and go sideways to higher during the day session. But again, who could have predicted Trump would come out saying he isn’t planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and that the 145% tariffs on China are “very high”? Then he followed up with: “It won’t be that high; it will come down substantially.”

Everything is so helter-skelter, it’s hard to believe it’s not just a giant charade.

While all of that was going on, the International Monetary Fund slashed its U.S. and global economic forecasts, warning that tariffs were ushering in a new era of slower growth. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said uncertainty was “too high,” holding back corporate decision-making and keeping asset prices under pressure.

Gold traded above 3,500, Bitcoin traded up to 91,700, the 10-year note yield fell to 4.389%, and the fear gauge VIX sold off below 31 after spiking as high as 52.70 on April 8th. Again—everything was moving.

Our Lean

Today there’s an IMF meeting, S&P flash PMI, new home sales, API data, the Fed Beige Book, four Fed speakers, a 2-year note auction, and earnings from AT&T, Boeing, and AT&T.

The ES was trading well above the levels I posted earlier, but here are today’s: 5424, 5460, 5487, and 5499.00. On the downside: 5385, 5348, 5306, and 5280.

Our lean: I think we can trade higher, but after a near 269.50-point rally in just 24 hours, my lean is to sell any sharply higher open and buy the pullbacks. If it keeps going, the 5410 level could come into play.

Equities CTA Flows – 4/22/2025

Green sweep continues

Over the next 1 week…

Flat tape: Buyers $23.69B ($2.16B into the US)
Up tape: Buyers $38.22B ($1.02B into the US)
Down tape: Buyers $12.04B ($0.96B into the US)

Over the next 1 month…

Flat tape: Buyers $41.61B ($6.55B into the US)
Up tape: Buyers $110.74B ($14.87B into the US)
Down tape: Buyers $15.52B ($6.52B into the US)

Key SPX Pivot Levels

Short term: 5578
Medium term: 5769
Long term: 5480

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES opened Tuesday’s Globex session at 5182.50 and quickly found support at 5171.75 around 7:30 AM, establishing the overnight low. From there, futures advanced steadily into the regular session open, which came in at 5245.50. The early morning rally pushed prices up to 5303.75 by 11:21 AM, a gain of 122.00 points from the overnight low and 58.25 points from the regular session open.

A shallow pullback to 5283.00 occurred at 11:45 AM before momentum resumed, driving ES to the session high of 5339.25 at 12:27 PM. This marked a 194.25-point rally from the overnight low and 93.75 points from the regular session open.

Following the 12:27 PM high at 5339.25, ES pulled back to 5315.00 by 12:51 PM before staging a bounce that reached 5332.50 at 1:09 PM. Sellers then took control, driving the index down sharply to 5262.25 by 1:51 PM — a 70.25-point reversal (-1.32%) from that lower high.

The market rebounded into the 2:15 PM mark with a modest high at 5319.75, but a lower high confirmed waning momentum. ES then saw a final dip to 5287.50 at 3:39 PM before grinding higher into the close.

The regular session closed at 5314.25, gaining 130.75 points (+2.52%) from Monday’s 5183.50 settlement. From the regular open to close, ES added 68.75 points (+1.31%).

The cleanup session saw minimal change.

Tuesday’s action carried a distinctly bullish tone, dominated by persistent buying through both Globex and regular hours. A major thrust in the first half of the day drove ES to fresh highs before afternoon profit-taking introduced two-sided action.

Volume remained healthy, with 1,502,177 contracts traded across the full session. Regular session volume alone reached 1,246,858, reflecting solid institutional participation.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance was highly notable. At 3:55 PM, buy imbalances surged to $2.016 billion with 91.6% of symbols favoring the buy side — well beyond the 66% threshold. This imbalance contributed to the upward pressure into the final minutes, with the ES rallying into the final cleanup print without giving back ground.

In summary, the day reflected a risk-on appetite, supported by aggressive MOC buying and sustained strength across both sessions. With a full-session gain of 132.00 points (+2.55%), momentum favors the bulls heading into Wednesday.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

MrTopStep Levels:

Fair Values for April 23, 2025:

SP: 28.03
NQ: 111.19
Dow: 166.73

Daily Market Recap 📊

Tuesday, April 15, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 46.9% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 55.0% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 54.1% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 53.4% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 53.2% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 53.3% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 26 / 30
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 45 / 102
- NYSE TRIN: 1.29
- Nasdaq TRIN: 0.98

Weekly Market 📈

Week Ending Friday, April 11, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 49.3% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 50.1% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54.8% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 52.4% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 27 / 1,475
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 94 / 2,013
- NYSE TRIN: 1.00
- Nasdaq TRIN: 1.01

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price did not revisit lower levels as anticipated and in-fact gapped higher and held firm bid throughout the session fulfilling the 5310.50 Cycle Target. Range for this session was 167 handles on 1.502M contracts exchanged.

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 4.22.25

PTG Glossary

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

Reframing Negative Beliefs into Empowering Ones

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Price has gapped higher on GLOBEX opening fulfilling 5419 CD2 Statistical Extreme Level.

TTB – Trump Tape Bomb: Trump has said “that tariffs on China will come down and he won’t play hardball”

Bulls have regained full control of this cycle dynamic and it is theirs to lose. Typically for CD2 we would be anticipating MATD rhythms to balance the recent decline and rally rotations.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5325+-, initially targets 5385 – 5410 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5325+-, initially targets 5265 – 5250 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5327 PVA Low Edge = 5266 Prior POC = 5292

ESM

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Overview:
Tuesday was a textbook trend-up day in the PTG room, with strong bullish rhythm in the morning session and sharp lessons in the afternoon. PTGDavid led the group with a well-defined strategy that played out beautifully early on, only to see the market deliver a harsh reversal late in the day. The session was packed with valuable insights and actionable setups.

Morning Session Highlights:

Pre-market prep: David flagged a continuation of the overnight bounce, targeting 5250 – which was met before RTH open.
Cycle Day 1 began with projected lows already tagged in the prior session, suggesting an upside bias.
Early Long Bias: At 9:32 AM, David noted a long lean with price > VWAP. This call proved to be pivotal as the market steadily climbed.
Trend Day Development:
- Initial Balance (IB) High breakout led to Target 1 at 5302, then Target 2 at 5324 was hit by lunchtime.
- Momentum remained strong as price respected the IB High level repeatedly, confirming bullish strength.

Key Lesson:
David emphasized how the early read on market structure gave the team a clear long bias—”We had the day nailed @ 9:32.” Following VWAP and IB levels proved to be a reliable edge.

Afternoon Reversal:

Around 1:15 PM, the market began to stall near key D-level POC clusters. A D-level Reversal was flagged.
Shortly after, price violated the IB High support, triggering a strong sell-off.
David candidly called it a “Total Fk-job” as the market flipped the script from “Morning Pump to Afternoon Dump.”
Price returned to VWAP for potential stabilization, but volatility stayed high into the close.

Closing Notes:

Massive Buy Imbalance: MOC orders surged to $2.6 billion on the buy side, offering some support into the close.
David and room members also discussed gold’s sharp reversal and ETF strategies, rounding out the day with broader market context.

Positive Trades & Lessons Learned:

✅ Nailed the long bias early – clear structure, clean execution
✅ IB levels held significance – both for breakout and later as reversal zones
✅ Adaptive mindset essential – the late-day reversal showed why flexibility is key
⚠️ Emotional detachment helps – the frustration in the afternoon was real, but being prepared for reversal zones (like D-level) made a difference

Final Takeaway:
The room was in sync with the morning rally and prepared for trend continuation, but the sudden reversal was a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift. Respecting key levels and managing expectations after big runs was the lesson of the day.

Another powerful day of trading and education in the PTG Room.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Trump & Trade Moves:
- Trump signals potential tariff cuts on China.
- Possible pause on auto tariffs; draft US-UK trade deal shows UK auto tariffs cut from 10% to 2.5%.
- Trump eases rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell.
Geopolitical Update:
- VP JD Vance met with India’s PM Modi – progress noted in technology, defense, and energy cooperation.
Tesla (TSLA):
- Missed Q1 earnings.
- Stock popped +5% after Elon Musk said he’ll focus more on Tesla starting May.
- Production of affordable models still on track for H1 2025.
- Musk reportedly advised Trump against tariffs.
Earnings Calendar:
- Premarket: APH, AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), General Dynamics (GD), Phillip Morris (PM), and more.
- After-hours: Chipotle (CMG), IBM, Texas Instruments (TXN), Lam Research (LRCX), Discover Financial (DFS), and others.
Economic Data Today:
- 9:45 AM ET: Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI.
- 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales.
- Crude Oil Inventories also on deck.
Market Conditions:
- Volatility remains high: ES 5-day ADR = 137.5 pts.
- Whale bias long into US open on notable overnight volume.
ES Technical Levels:
- Resistance: ~5335/30, higher at 5435/30 & 5740/50.
- Support: ~4935/450.
- Watching for trendline reactions at these key levels.
Europe:
- Early downside pressure in DAX – “DAX sell start.”

ES

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5291.75. This is the pivotal level for today’s session. Holding above this level suggests potential continuation to the upside, while a break below could resume bearish pressure.

Currently, ES is trading around 5434.25, comfortably above the bull/bear line. This positions the market in bullish territory for now. The upper range target for today is 5394.25, which has already been surpassed during the Globex session. If this strength holds, the next upside levels to watch are 5491.25 and 5532.00. Beyond that, 5691.25 marks a more extended resistance level.

On the downside, if the ES loses momentum and breaks back below 5412.75, expect initial support at 5339.25 and then at the bull/bear line of 5291.75. Below that, downside targets include 5187.75 and the lower range support at 5174.50. A deeper breakdown could bring 5090.75 and 5055.50 into play.

Overall, the near-term sentiment favors the bulls as long as ES remains above 5291.75. Watch for potential rejection at the resistance cluster between 5491.25 and 5532.00, which could trigger pullbacks. Caution is advised if price action turns back below the 5339.25 to 5291.75 support zone..

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 18,291.00. This is the critical level for today, and as long as price remains above it, bulls have a chance to push higher. Below this level, the bias shifts bearish and selling pressure is likely to dominate.

Currently, NQ is trading around 18,869.25, showing strength above the bull/bear line. Price has already cleared the intraday upper range target at 18,711.00, confirming bullish momentum. With that level behind us, the next upside targets are 18,816.25 and 19,106.00. Further resistance is seen at 19,291.50.

If price begins to fade, initial support is now back at 18,711.00. A break below this could open the door for a retest of the bull/bear line at 18,291.00. Below that, the lower intraday range target comes in at 17,871.25. A breakdown below this support increases the odds for a move toward 17,491.75.

Additional support is located near 17,914.00, which was tested during the overnight low. Loss of that area could see more selling pressure build.

Overall, NQ remains bullish above 18,291.00. A move below that line, however, would shift the bias to bearish and traders should be cautious with long exposure.