Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 10:00ET U. Of Mich. Sentiment,11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

• Alphabet’s Profit Gets $8 Billion Boost from SpaceX Investment
• Trump poised to offer Saudi Arabia over $100 billion arms package, sources say
• Chicago Bears selected Michigan tight end Colston Loveland with the No. 10 pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
  

Global stocks were mixed amid ongoing trade uncertainty. China may suspend its 125% tariff on certain U.S. imports, including medical equipment, aircraft leases,
and ethane. However, Beijing downplayed any signs of progress, stating that no tariff negotiations are currently underway and cautioning the U.S. against misleading the public. Apple plans to import most of the iPhones it sells in the U.S. from India by the
end of next year, accelerating its shift away from China, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Foreign investors have sold an estimated $63 billion in U.S. equities since the beginning of March, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. High-frequency
fund flow data suggests European investors have been the primary drivers of the selling, while investors from other regions have continued to buy U.S. stocks

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slipped, erasing earlier gains, as mixed earnings and trade negotiations weighed on traders. Alphabet was the top gainer in the Magnificent Seven,
rising 4.9% after exceeding first-quarter revenue and profit expectations, largely driven by its strong search advertising business. Intel fell over 6%, following a stark outlook from CEO Lip-Bu Tan on the company’s challenges.

Meta Platforms rose 3%, Amazon increased 0.5%, and Tesla saw a 1% rise. Gilead Sciences (GILD) fell 3.9% following a revenue miss in Q1 due to disappointing sales
of Trodelvy and Veklury. Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) declined 2.3% after issuing a weak second-quarter profit forecast, citing the impact of tariffs between the US and China. Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) surged 13% after its MSG Networks unit reached a debt
restructuring deal with the New York Knicks and Rangers. T-Mobile (TMUS) fell 5.7% after reporting fewer new wireless subscribers than analysts expected. Hasbro (HAS) rose 1.0% after being upgraded to a “buy” by Citi, citing strong business momentum. Skechers
USA (SKX) slid 6.9% after withdrawing its annual outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.7%, DJI -0.4%

FIXED INCOME: 

Treasury futures advanced early Friday, led by gains in the long end, as the curve flattened. The 10-year yield fell ~3bps to ~4.29%, outperforming German and UK
peers. The 2s10s and 5s30s spreads tightened 1–2bps. On the data front, eyes turn to the final April University of Michigan sentiment and Kansas City Fed services index. The Fed enters its communications blackout on Saturday ahead of the May FOMC decision

METALS: 

Gold fell over 1% on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline as hopes for a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. The selloff followed reports
that China may suspend a 125% tariff on certain U.S. imports, while U.S. officials indicated progress in trade talks with South Korea. Spot gold -1.6%, Silver -0.8%

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fell, erasing earlier gains, after a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson denied any consultations or negotiations with the U.S. on tariffs, contradicting
President Trump’s earlier remarks about ongoing trade talks. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russia are reportedly moving closer to ending the war in Ukraine, though key elements of a deal remain unresolved, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview
with CBS News. A halt to the conflict and easing of sanctions could lead to more Russian oil flowing into global markets. Russia, a major member of OPEC+, is one of the world’s largest oil producers alongside the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. WTI -1.5%, Brent -1.4%,
US Nat Gas -1.1%, RBOB -0.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

The US dollar index rose against all its G-10 peers, marking its first weekly gain in a month, following signs of easing US-China trade tensions after reports that
Beijing was considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stated that US tariff announcements would likely weigh on eurozone consumer prices rather than create new inflation, causing traders to fully
price in a 25bps rate cut for June. Haven currencies were under pressure as stocks advanced, with USDJPY rising by 0.9% to 143.85 before halving gains.US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.7%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD
-0.1%, USDNOK -0.3%, USDMXN -0.3%

Bitcoin +1.4%, Ethereum +1.8%.  

• Upgrades
• Agilon Health (AGL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $5
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank
• Apple (AAPL) Raised to Hold at DBS Bank; PT $210
• Boeing (BA) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $200
• FMC Corp (FMC) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $49
• Hasbro (HAS) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $72
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $46
• Leslie’s (LESL) Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 55 cents
• Lowe’s (LOW) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $266
• P&G (PG) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $177
• Philip Morris (PM) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $170
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $275
• RTX Corp (RTX) Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $129
• Schwab (SCHW) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $100
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Market Perform at Northland; PT $12.50
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$70
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $163
• Trane Technologies (TT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $415
• Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $181
• WM (WM) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $265
• Downgrades
• Align Technology (ALGN) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $170
• American Water (AWK) Cut to Neutral at UBS
• Andlauer Healthcare Group (AND CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT C$55
• ASGN (ASGN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $55
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $9
• Global Payments (GPN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $86
• Iqvia (IQV) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $160
• RLI (RLI) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $76
• SS&C (SSNC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $86
• Tal Education (TAL) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $10.90
• Valaris (VAL) Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT $35
• VinFast Auto (VFS) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Initiations
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $59
• Carnival (CCL) Rated New Neutral at Northcoast
• CI&T Inc (CINT) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $7
• Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) Resumed Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $28
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• GE Vernova (GEV) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $39
• H&R REIT (HR-U CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$11
• Loar Holdings (LOAR) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Marex Group (MRX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $21
• Opko Health (OPK) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan
• PRO REIT (PRV-U CN) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT C$5
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $279
• Sensata (ST) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $20
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $39
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Hold at KGI Securities; PT $82
• Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $51

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG