Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  7:00ET:
US MBA Mortgage Applications, 9:10ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks,
5:40ET Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

• President Donald Trump said the US would explore normalizing relations
  with Syria after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad and lift sanctions against the country’s new government.
• The last time the S&P 500 erased a 15% YTD decline in under 6 weeks was
  in 1982

Global stocks fluctuated as traders awaited new catalysts, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edging
higher as investors awaited fresh U.S. retail sales data and public remarks from key Federal Reserve officials for clues on the direction of interest rates. The market remains uncertain after a recent 90-day pause in the U.S.-China trade war and as the Fed
has kept its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing elevated inflation and increased risks to both growth and unemployment. Meanwhile, President Trump announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria following last year’s fall of the Assad regime and met with
President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, signaling a move toward normalizing U.S.-Syria relations. Elsewhere, the Korean won extended gains after reports that the U.S. and South Korea discussed foreign exchange policy on May 5.

EQUITIES: 

U.S. equity futures pointed higher in premarket trading, as investors showed signs of caution after a strong multi-week rally. Nvidia led the Magnificent Seven stocks,
rising 3% premarket after securing a major deal to supply AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s Humain for a large-scale data center project. Super Micro Computer surged 14% on a similar Saudi data center partnership, while Tesla climbed 2% and Alphabet and Meta Platforms
rose 0.7%. In contrast, American Eagle tumbled 12% after withdrawing its 2025 outlook, and Aurora Innovation plunged 18% following news that Uber would sell $1 billion in convertible notes tied to the company. Septerna soared 62% after announcing a partnership
with Novo Nordisk on obesity and diabetes drugs. Other notable movers included Exelixis (+4%), Dynatrace (+3%), and Grail (-13%).

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.2%.

European stocks slipped after a recent rally fueled by trade optimism, as traders paused to reassess
valuations and earnings prospects. Alstom SA plunged 17% on softer guidance despite solid results, while Burberry Group Plc jumped nearly 10% after strong retail sales and job cuts. Consumer products and automotive shares lagged, but telecom and utilities
outperformed. Goldman Sachs strategists raised their targets for the Stoxx 600 Index, citing lower recession risks, though they caution that further gains may depend on stronger economic growth in the region. Stoxx Europe 600 Index -0.3% FTSE 100 -0.1%, DAX
-0.2%, CAC 40 -0.1%.

Asian stocks advanced for a fourth straight session, buoyed by optimism over upcoming Chinese tech earnings and strong gains in chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index climbed as much as 1.1%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the top contributors, while semiconductor giants TSMC and SK Hynix rallied after Nvidia and AMD announced deals to supply chips for a major Saudi Arabian AI data center project. Investors are watching
Chinese tech results for signs that the sector’s AI-driven rally could regain momentum, especially after recent US-China tariff cuts. Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Indonesia led regional gains, while Japan’s Topix slipped as profit-taking followed weak
auto sector earnings and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Chinese financials, rare earth producers, and shipping stocks also outperformed on expectations of increased demand and policy support. Hang Seng Index +2.3%, MSCI Asia Pacific Index +1.1%, Taiwan Taiex
Index +2.1%, South Korea Kospi Index +1.2Japan Topix Index -0.3%, Japan Nikkei Index -0.1%, ASX 200 Index +0.1%, New Zealand -0.1%, India NSE Nifty 50 Index +0.3%, Singapore -0.3%, Malaysia -0.1%, Philippines -0.2%, Indonesia +2.1%.

FIXED INCOME:   

U.S. Treasuries edged higher, with the 5-year leading gains and pushing the 5s30s spread near the top of its recent range, while the 10-year yield hovered around
4.45%. This outperformance came as the dollar weakened following news that the U.S. and South Korea discussed currency policy, fueling speculation that the Trump administration may tolerate a softer greenback. UK gilts lagged slightly after a 10-year auction,
and the gap between U.S. and UK 10-year yields widened by about 1bp.

METALS: 

Gold prices edged lower as traders weighed softer-than-expected US inflation data and easing trade tensions with China, prompting a rotation out of defensive assets.
The recent decline follows a sharp selloff earlier in the week as a US-China trade truce and cooling inflation sparked a shift toward risk assets, though ongoing Fed rate cut expectations continue to provide some support for bullion. Gold -0.7%, Silver -0.1%.

 ENERGY:   

Oil prices held near two-week highs after a four-day rally, supported by the US-China tariff truce and President Trump’s renewed sanctions and hawkish rhetoric on
Iran. Brent crude hovered near $66 a barrel and WTI above $63, both benchmarks having gained over 2.5% in the previous session. The rally was underpinned by a weaker US dollar and optimism that tariff cuts would boost demand, though prices eased slightly as
US crude inventories saw a surprise build of 4.29 million barrels last week, the largest in six weeks. Despite the rebound, oil remains down more than 10% year-to-date, with OPEC+ expected to increase output at its June 1 meeting, raising concerns about a
potential surplus. Brent -0.9%, WTI -1.01%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar index weakened across G-10 currencies after news broke that the U.S. and South Korea held foreign exchange talks on May 5. The
greenback traded lower against all major peers, as the two countries agreed to continue discussions on FX policy, fueling speculation about a softer U.S. currency stance. US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.9%, AUDUSD +0.06%, NZDUSD +0.2%,
USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum -2.5%. 

Colors within the report: Green is
always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21, Blue
= 50, Brown = 100 *Stars
have added importance 

•  Upgrades
• Ameren (AEE) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $103
• Carlyle Group (CG) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $56
• Charles River (CRL) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $179
• Entergy (ETR) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $85
• Establishment Labs (ESTA) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $48
• Franklin Resources (BEN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $27
• Funko (FNKO) Raised to Neutral at Goldman
• KKR & Co. (KKR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $150
• Lundin Gold (LUG CN) Raised to Buy at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Omnicell (OMCL) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
• Perion (PERI) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $14
• PVH (PVH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $105
• Regeneron (REGN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $700
• Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $190
• TGS (TGSU2 AR) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $38
• Downgrades
• AbbVie (ABBV) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $205
• Affimed (AFMD) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT 10 cents
• Allogene (ALLO) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Amdocs (DOX) Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Biodesix (BDSX) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Cboe (CBOE) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $215
• Cenovus (CVE CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$19
• Con Edison (ED) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $90
• Exelon (EXC) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $39
• Federated Hermes (FHI) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Halozyme (HALO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $62
• HUTCHMED China (13 HK) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $14.70
• iTeos (ITOS) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $9
• Lavoro (LVRO) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $1.50
• Magnera (MAGN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
• Merck & Co (MRK) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $84
• NEXTracker (NXT) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$86.29
• Peyto Exploration (PEY CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Portland General (POR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Quipt Home Medical Corp (QIPT CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$2.37
• Rivian (RIVN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $16
• Southern Co (SO) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $78
• UL Solutions (ULS) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $71
• UnitedHealth (UNH) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Wayfair (W) Cut to Sell at Loop Capital; PT $35
• WonderFi Technologies In (WNDR CN) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Initiations
• Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Centrus Energy (LEU) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $145
• Construction Partners (ROAD) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Core Scientific (CORZ) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $83
• EHang Holdings (EH) ADRs Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $26
• Enova International (ENVA) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• Ezcorp (EZPW) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• GE Aerospace (GE) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at Northeast Securities
• Hut 8 Corp (HUT CN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT C$34.89
• Macom (MTSI) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• ServiceNow (NOW) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Toast (TOST) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Uber (UBER) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG