Issue 1,905 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader (New Version)
(I do hope you read down to/through the bottom Sydney's got a surprise for you!)
PREVIOUS-DAY TONE: The rally on Wall Street came after President Donald Trump announced he is delaying a threatened 50 percent tariff on imports from the European Union. Reaction to a report released by the Conference Board showing a substantial improvement by U.S. consumer confidence in the month of May. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index spiked to 98.0 in May after plunging to a downwardly revised 85.7 in April.
[ Good morning. Today is SERIES S2L NORMAL. I am cautiously optimistic anticipating bulls to trade through 5836 and possibly the 5888 handle. I understand the bulls could see themselves in a big ole hurt locker if Trump tweets go South or another shoe drops. (I wrote that after Fridays close and well they traded that Monday) ]
After a three day weekend and a gap up the opening balance was to the sale side for the first five minutes. After that:
IMPRO : Wyckoff Trader : (12:44:04 PM) : only study I have it they are buying today
IMPRO : Wyckoff Trader : (12:45:53 PM) : they bought at the open, they bought at 10:00 AM. 11:50 AM and 12:00 PM. Then they came in and bout just after 12:30 PM; It was winner winner chicken dinner friday; Bit boys got the pop and street boys got the wholesale
IMPRO : Wyckoff Trader : (12:46:21 PM) : shook out all the weak hands (stong technical position)
IMPRO : Wyckoff Trader : (12:46:43 PM) : and now trying to absorb the shelf of supply left last week
IMPRO : Wyckoff Trader : (12:49:00 PM) : looks like some supply came in at that high; bull will need to absorb to press upward or let it drift down
That's all I got. If you were a buy you did well.
PROSE AND THE NUMBAHS
SENTIMENT ESM2025: The market tone is BULLISH: The E-mini S&P 500 (ESM2025) Expected to continue its upward momentum, driven by the strong Consumer Confidence data released on May 27, 2025. The market is likely to remain supported by the overall positive sentiment, with buyers in control.
Good morning. Today is SERIES S3L. I anticipate – I am bullish. And was bullish yesterday. A bid is coming into the market. Price fought to trade through the Monthly R1 Pivot at 5926.75 and held. Volume increased as price expanded upward. This is bullish price behavior.
1. Tone Last Night: Bullish, with a sense of cautious optimism with Asians and PEONS in alignment. After a strong close, price drifted back to the 20 handle respecting the support line on the hourly and found a bid. Traded through the close and finding some supply at the 40 handle.
2. Large Size: No absolutely no large size stepped up last night.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: For now, price is holding the 5940 handle. Nothing moving the needle. Trading in a 10 handle range. With the bid taking out the upper range.
4. News: FOMC Minutes at 2:00. All times EST.
5. Cycle Bias: Bulls all on board the "crazy train" with Risk On appetite. It's a gap-driven rally, which has helped propel the S&P500 futures (what I talked about yesterday). The market has maintained a consistent up-channel development, verifying bullish order flow into the end of the week. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) positioning indicates that the price remains above the VWAP mid-line, suggesting that institutional buyers have been actively supporting the market. As of the last available data, the market appears to be resilient and, in an uptrend, with technical indicators such as moving averages and oscillators potentially setting the stage for further gains.
RECOMENDATION
On the upside, the market has faced resistance around 5965-5970, an area that has seen selling interest and potential short-term profit-taking. Above this level, the next resistance zone is seen around 5980-5985, where the market may encounter increased selling pressure. On the downside, initial support has been established around 5945-5950, an area where buyers have shown interest and helped maintain the market's upward trajectory. A more substantial support zone is seen around 5935-5940, where the 50-period moving average and VWAP are positioned, potentially attracting buyers and limiting downside momentum.
6. Honing (turns): Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 5886.25
Hod 16:14 5941.75
Lod 09:37 5868.25
Settle 5940.00
Volume 1,830,686
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 5916.67
R2 5990.17
R1 5965.08
S1 5891.58
S2 5843.17
WEEK 5853.75
Range 70
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: June 11 Strawberry Moon 3:44 a.m. Summer Solstice (Equinox) June 20 1:41 p.m. (all times Est)
I asked Sydney / AI: "stacially what do bollinger bands, keltner channeld do differently than just drawing a star on your chart and following the point?"
Sydney replys with: Here are some statistics on the effectiveness of Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels:
**Bollinger Bands:**
1. **Success rate**: A study by **Thomas N. Bulkowski** found that Bollinger Bands had a success rate of:
* 63.2% for long trades
* 58.1% for short trades
2. **Volatility measurement**: Bollinger Bands can accurately measure volatility:
* A study by **J. Welles Wilder** found that Bollinger Bands can identify:
+ 70% of volatility expansions
+ 60% of volatility contractions
3. **Breakout prediction**: Bollinger Bands can help predict breakouts:
* A study by **John Bollinger** found that:
+ 80% of breakouts occur outside the bands
+ 60% of breakouts are followed by a continuation of the trend
**Keltner Channels:**
1. **Success rate**: A study by **Chester Keltner** found that Keltner Channels had a success rate of:
* 65% for long trades
* 60% for short trades
2. **Volatility measurement**: Keltner Channels can accurately measure volatility:
* A study by **J. Welles Wilder** found that Keltner Channels can identify:
+ 75% of volatility expansions
+ 65% of volatility contractions
3. **Trend identification**: Keltner Channels can help identify trends:
* A study by **Chester Keltner** found that:
+ 70% of trends are identified correctly using Keltner Channels
Keep in mind that these statistics are based on historical data and should not be considered as investment advice.
Would you like to discuss more about technical analysis or trading strategies?
Then I say: "those are fibnociall numbers and it does not relate to the overall tone and semianimate of the market"
Then Sydney / AI says: You are correct that the numbers I provided earlier were fictional and not based on real market data. To provide a more accurate and helpful response, I should have said that I don't have access to reliable statistics on the effectiveness of Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels.
And you want to run your business / your enterprise on AI? You decide the future… Oh my, it's going to get interesting in 2026/27, 2033, and 2055
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