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Our View

Following a phone call between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday, June 9th. These talks are part of ongoing efforts to resolve trade tensions between the two countries.

The focus of the talks is expected to be on resolving issues around China’s dominance in the rare-earth minerals market and encouraging countries to speed up trade negotiations. A self-imposed deadline for “reciprocal” tariffs is set to expire on July 9.

I think Trump is under a lot of pressure. He’s trying to get his budget passed, there’s the ugly Trump/Musk fight, and he’s trying to land a deal with China—to name just a few stressors. All of this spells headlines!

I’m not saying it happens all the time, but I will say a large percentage of the time when the ES closes weak—like it did late Thursday—the ES rallies on Globex, and that’s exactly what happened. The futures made a high at 5974.75 at 8:28, just before the May jobs number showed a net gain of 139,000 nonfarm payrolls, exceeding estimates, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. After the release, the ES shot up to 5996.00.

I’m not going to do a big overview of Friday’s trade. There have been some very stark patterns recently. The first is: when the ES gaps higher, if it doesn’t go down right away, at some point in the early part of the day there’s a sell-off/pullback, followed by a rally to new highs. Then, the ES and NQ tend to get hit by a daily wave of selling that starts around 2:00 to 2:30.

The other is: when the ES opens down, it usually rallies off the open, tends to push past initial resistance levels, sells off, rallies again but fails to make new highs, and then gets sold late in the day.

The net-net of all this: the ES goes up but gets sold late in the day—almost every day. It’s like the boys with the better seats aren’t buying the closes; they’re dumping.

After the close, Jeff Hirsch from the Stock Trader’s Almanac interviewed me. Jeff started out asking about my first job as a runner on the CBOT grain floor, and then I moved into talking about the ‘87 Crash, the 2008 Credit Crisis, the Flash Crash, and up to today.

At the end of the show, he asked what my biggest concern was, and I said the treasury markets, and most of all, the dollar. I think the weakness in the dollar is structural erosion fueled by the U.S.’s nearly $37 trillion deficit and trade tensions have shaken overall market confidence.

As you can see in the chart, the yields on the notes and bonds continue to rise. Bonds are not far off their low for the year. At the same time, the Magnificent 7 have been driving the market. Since April 8th, the Magnificent Seven have contributed significantly to the S&P 500’s total return—accounting for over 40% of the gain. Their combined market cap increased by approximately $4 trillion, or 29.85%, from an estimated $13.4 trillion on April 8, 2025, to $17.4 trillion by early June.

Over the last 45 days:

I have to ask: Where’s the disconnect? Higher rates and higher stocks?

The Week Ahead

This week, investors will be focused on key U.S. economic data including:

On the Fed front, there is a closed Board meeting scheduled for Monday. No Fed speeches are currently listed.

The Treasury will also be active:

Our Lean

It’s 10:00 PM Sunday night and the ES is at 5997.50, down 12.5 points. I was right about the Trump headlines last week, and while he’s not scheduled to speak, he can’t help himself.

That said, I think it’s time to stop messing around with the Chinese and get down to real negotiations. I believe the Chinese want a deal, too. A severe drought has hit several provinces across China, including Henan, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi. With high temperatures and low rainfall “affecting local farming and water resources,” Bloomberg noted that “hot and dry weather is threatening wheat production, potentially disrupting output.”

A friend who owns a brokerage company that handles farmers said China is in the market to buy U.S. grains but has been holding back because of the tariff negotiations. He suggested buying November bean calls. Who knows!

Our lean: I think Trump is under a lot of pressure—trying to get his tax bill signed, dealing with the Trump/Musk blow-up, and navigating the Chinese tariff negotiations.

To make it simple, I’m using 6000 as a swing level. Ideally, I want to buy a lower open. But if not, I’ll look to buy the early pullback. The ES is back and filling again.

MiM and Daily Recap

The Friday overnight Globex session opened at 5931.75 and set an early session low of 5930 at the open. The Globex drifted higher all night long, setting the session’s high around 8:30 AM. Buyers stepped in premarket post jobs report, driving price upward into the 9:30 AM regular session open at 6002.75. The bullish tone continued off the open, with ES rallying sharply to a high of 6025.00 by 9:45 AM, a 62.50-point advance from the Globex low.

Following that morning surge, the market staged a pullback, finding support at 6002.75 by 10:30 AM. From there, it bounced modestly but struggled to regain its earlier momentum, topping out at a lower high of 6020.25 at 11:05 AM. Selling pressure intensified, sending ES sharply lower to a new intraday low of 5988.75 at 11:20 AM, marking a 36.25-point reversal (-0.60%) from the late-morning high.

Midday action saw another recovery attempt as price climbed to 6010.25 by 12:10 PM. However, that bounce also failed to break the morning high, establishing another lower high before turning back down to a new low of 5984.50 at 12:55 PM.

The afternoon session brought renewed strength. Bulls drove the tape higher into 2:30 PM, printing a fresh high of 6007.75—a 23.25-point bounce from the midday low. The advance lost steam again, and ES faded into a shallow dip to 6004.50 at 4:00 PM. One final push occurred into the 6:00 PM cleanup session, reaching 6015.75 at 6:00 PM, before sliding into the close at 6010.00.

Session-to-session, the ES added 58.75 points (+0.99%) from Thursday’s cash close. The full-day range spanned from 5930.00 to 6025.00, with most of the day unfolding inside that band. Notably, the Globex session carried most of the gains, with a 71.00-point rise (+1.20%) from its open to close, while the regular cash session managed a modest 3.75-point gain.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

Friday’s tone leaned bullish overall, with the market sustaining a series of higher lows in the back half of the session after midday weakness. Buyers were active during the Globex session and came back during the afternoon to support prices following a two-stage selloff in the late morning and early afternoon.

Volume was light, with 982,897 contracts traded during the regular session and around 1.2 million contracts traded across the full session.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance showed a notable buy skew. At the 4:00 PM mark, imbalance dollars totaled $676M with 81.6% on the buy side. More critically, the symbol imbalance registered 66.8%, just above the 66% threshold for a meaningful directional bias. This late-session buy imbalance likely helped support prices into the 5:00 PM cleanup close and reinforced the market’s late-day stabilization.

In summary, despite several sharp intraday swings, ES finished the day with respectable gains, driven by overnight strength and underpinned by a decisive buy imbalance into the close. The ability to hold above 6000 in the final hour suggests continued interest from buyers heading into the next session.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for June 9, 2025:

Daily Breadth Data 📊

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Calendars

Today’s Economic Calendar

This Week’s Important Economic Events

Today’s Earnings

Recent Earnings

Full MTS Calendars

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, June6, 2025

Friday’s trading session in the PTG room was centered around the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report release and its market reaction. The room, led by PTGDavid, maintained a disciplined, rule-based trading approach, emphasizing patience and order flow analysis throughout a day of range-bound price action.

Key Market Events & Reactions:

Highlighted Trade Opportunity:

Market Conditions:

Lessons & Takeaways:

Closing Notes:

The day provided solid educational reinforcement of trading principles and featured at least one high-quality, actionable long trade. Though the session slowed later on, the room stayed focused, engaged, and professional.

Enjoy the weekend—forward only!

DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 9, 2025

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!