ES Rallies Into Close After Choppy Trade, All Eyes on CPI

on June 11, 2025

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Our View

After another crappy close, the ES traded down to 5991.25 and rallied up to 6040.75—a 49.5-point rally on Globex. It was trading above 6020.00 before 9:00 a.m., then pulled back to the 6016.00 level and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6016.25. I thought with a larger overnight range, we could see some increased trade during the day session.

By 11:30, the “larger range” had not materialized. The morning range was a mere 15 points. Around 11:35, the ES started to pull back and traded down to the 6015 level, then popped back up to the highs at 6040.00, before selling off again to the 6015 level. My guess was it was going to be another round trip back up to the highs. And it was—the ES traded all the way up to 6049.50!

After a 13-point pullback, it rallied a bit when the MIM came out showing $744 million to buy.

The trade has shifted from some of the largest dips and rips we’ve seen since the Covid-19 pandemic to 20–30-point ranges, sometimes just over 20-point ranges for hours. I think when you take into account all the economic woes and the fact that we’ve seen a 21% rally, the public has gone on vacation. The traders weathering the storm right now have lowered their sights and adjusted to the slower pace and smaller ranges.

From what we’re hearing, the US-China talks have moved into the second day—and into the night—with a possible third day of negotiations as both countries work toward a trade deal. I think we all know that no matter how the deal ends, Trump will take credit for it and call it a beautiful deal, even if it’s not what he initially wanted. At the same time, the World Bank is the latest institution to warn that Trump’s trade policies could weigh on US growth.

At the end of the day, the futures index markets closed higher: the NQ up 0.5%, the ES up 0.4%, and the YM up 0.20% on the day.

CPI Day Estimates

Goldman Sachs estimates a 2.5% year-over-year CPI. This reflects a slight uptick in inflation, noting a small tariff-related impact for May, with larger effects expected in subsequent months.
J.P. Morgan estimates for the May CPI is 2.4%.
Morgan Stanley projects 2.5% year-over-year for headline CPI and 2.9% for core CPI. This reflects a modest rise, with restrained headline inflation but sticky core inflation, influencing Fed policy expectations.
Citibank estimates 2.5% year-over-year, based on consensus forecasts from FactSet. This is consistent with broader economic trends and forecasts from other major banks.

What’s the takeaway? They already know what the number will be…

Our Lean

While we got larger trading ranges, it was still a very quiet trading day—something I hope changes with this morning’s CPI number. If you asked me what I think the number will be, I don’t think it matters—unless it’s way off base. Even then, a big gap down would probably be a buy anyway.

I asked GROK what the economic feel for the US economy is, and it came back with this:

The overall economic feel for the US economy is one of cautious growth with significant risks. GDP growth is slowing, forecasted at around 1.3% to 1.6% for 2025, with potential stall speed by year-end. The labor market is cooling, with job growth at 139,000 in May but expected to decelerate further. Inflation remains a concern, with CPI likely around 2.5% year-over-year for May, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, starting in September. Consumer spending is robust but slowing, and business investment faces headwinds from tariffs and trade tensions. This situation underscores a complex economic landscape, with positive aspects tempered by significant risks from policy uncertainty and global economic slowdowns.

While I’m sure I couldn’t write it as well, I think the explanation hits it right on the head. But again, that doesn’t seem to matter—money continues to pour into the stock market. According to FactSet, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) pulled in $2.4 billion on Friday, boosting its assets under management to over $338 billion. Over the last 5 sessions, the Nasdaq has outperformed the S&P by 0.75%. Furthermore, the NQ has rallied 33% from its April low, compared to the ES’s 21.20% gain.

Our lean: I hope the ES gaps down 30 points or more after this morning’s CPI number. I’d buy it and add if it drops a little further, get out of one lot, and hold the other. If we gap way up, I’d have to lean into a short on the open and add if it pops above the opening gap. If the short works, I’ll be looking to cover and buy the pullbacks (slowly). I still think the markets are going up, but we all know that the rinse-wash-repeat price action is here to stay. I still have 6078, 6085, 6094, 6099, and 6112 as near-term targets.

From Jeff Hirsch – Stock Trader’s Almanac

Small Caps Rocking Typical Post-Election June

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled. 2025 June gains so far of 3.8% for Russell 2000 ($IWM) and 2.5% for NASDAQ ($QQQ) sets up a typical brisk, mid-month drop P please followed by a month-end rally led by technology and small caps.

MiM and Daily Recap

The S&P 500 futures market finished the session with a moderate gain after a day of choppy, two-sided trading. The market showed resilience, absorbing several sell-offs before pushing to new highs in the afternoon.

The trading day was preceded by a volatile overnight Globex session that saw significant two-way price action. After an early peak at 6040.75, prices trended down for several hours, eventually finding a low at 5991.25. From that point, a recovery began that continued into the morning. As the U.S. cash session approached, prices hit a high of 6022.25 at 8:45 AM ET before dipping to 6014.25 right around the 9:30 AM open. From that early low, buyers initiated a rally that carried the ES to a morning high of 6030.75 at 10:40 AM. This upward momentum was short-lived, as sellers returned and drove the market down to the session’s lowest point of 6005.00 at 11:30 AM, erasing the earlier gains.

The midday period marked a significant turning point. From the 11:30 AM low, a sustained recovery began, pushing prices to a new high of 6041.25 by 1:10 PM. This reflected a significant intraday reversal of over 36 points. Following this peak, the market experienced a notable pullback, finding a higher low at 6015.25 at 2:00 PM. The most aggressive part of the rally occurred in the afternoon, with the ES surging to the session’s peak of 6049.50 at 3:05 PM. A final pullback brought the price to 6030.25 at 3:40 PM before the market settled. The regular trading session closed at 6045.00, securing a gain of 35.00 points, or 0.58%, compared to the previous day’s close.

The overall tone of the market was cautiously bullish. Despite several pullbacks, buyers consistently emerged at lower levels to prevent a more significant decline and ultimately drove the market to close near its highs. The session was characterized by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows following the morning sell-off, indicating an underlying bid throughout the day. Total volume for the full session was just over 1 million contracts, with the regular session contributing nearly 800,000 of that total.

The Market-on-Close period did not show a strong institutional bias. The final symbol imbalance was 50.2%, indicating a near-neutral split between buy and sell orders. However, data from the final minutes of trading revealed a sharp increase in selling pressure. The symbol imbalance flipped to a strong sell-side reading of -72.4% at the 4:00 PM close, which likely contributed to the market pulling back from its peak price of 6049.50. This late selling pressure also influenced the cleanup session, which saw the final price settle lower at 6040.50.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for June 11, 2025:

SP: 4.56
NQ: 20.4
Dow: 28.24

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, June 10, 2025
- • NYSE Breadth: 64.6% Upside Volume
  • Nasdaq Breadth: 79.4% Upside Volume
  • Total Breadth: 78.2% Upside Volume
  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 64.0% Advance
  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61.3% Advance
  • Total Advance/Decline: 62.3% Advance
  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 51 / 17
  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 166 / 47
  • NYSE TRIN: 1.11
  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.40

Weekly Market 📈

For week ending Friday, june 6, 2025
- • NYSE Breadth: 57.7% Upside Volume
  • Nasdaq Breadth: 61.3% Upside Volume
  • Total Breadth: 59.9% Upside Volume
  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 67.1% Advance
  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 68.0% Advance
  • Total Advance/Decline: 67.7% Advance
  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 188 / 83
  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 411 / 191
  • NYSE TRIN: 0.95
  • Nasdaq TRIN: 1.04

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle as price secured a rally above the CD1 Low (5930) which has an 90.32% historical performance track history.

Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic is defined as Price Above the Cycle Day 1 Low on Cycle Day 3. P > CD1 on CD3.

Expectation for “more of the same” as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 6.10.25 unfolded as price tested lower support zone as well as probed upper targets.

Bulls maintained ball-control as traders await the big CPI report Wednesday morning. Range for this session was 58 handles on 999k contracts exchanged..

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 6.10.25

PTG Glossary

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection measuring 6011.50.

Consensus for Consumer Price Index (CPI):

Headline CPI: + 0.2% mom, 2.5% YoY
Core CPI: + 0.3% mom, 2.9% YoY

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6040+-, initially targets 6060 – 6065 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6040+-, initially targets 6020– 6015 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6040 PVA Low Edge = 6017 Prior POC = 6026

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Tuesday’s trading session was defined by precision planning, disciplined execution, and patience amidst a low-volatility environment.

Morning Setup & Scenarios

Overnight Action: Both ES and NQ tagged their upper Money Box Zones during the Asian session and reversed sharply. ES retraced down to the 5992 support zone and settled pre-market near the 6015 Line in the Sand (LIS).
Game Plan: PTGDavid laid out clear bull and bear scenarios anchored around the 6015 LIS:
- Bull: Hold above 6015 targets 6025–6030.
- Bear: Below 6015 targets 6000–5995.

Executed Trades & Key Levels

6025 Target Hit Early: The session opened with early buyers showing control. The initial target of 6025 was fulfilled cleanly, validating the strategy and providing a solid intraday trade opportunity.
6030 Also Reached: The upper DTS-projected zone of 6030 was tagged, delivering a second key target. This aligned with David’s precision scenario planning.
Post-targets: Action slowed considerably afterward, prompting “SOH” (sit on hands) mode.

Insights & Lessons

Discipline Pays: The team largely stayed out during slow, low-volume stretches—“watching paint dry”—showing great trading restraint.
Cycle Day Context: Price remains well above CD1 low (5930.75), validating the Positive 3-Day Cycle with a 90.24% success stat. This supported a bullish bias into CPI Wednesday.
Unexpected News Reaction: A brief headline regarding Iran nuclear tensions jolted markets, but the move quickly faded. David noted it was not part of the planned catalysts (CPI/China) and did not drive follow-through.
Quote of the Day: “I have no control over the trade outcomes. I can only control the orders I enter.” A reminder of the trader’s true focus—process over prediction.

Closing Note

A modest $744M MOC buy imbalance closed the day.
Overall, the team navigated a slow session effectively, took the best setups early, and avoided forcing trades in chop.

Positive Highlights:

Early targets hit with textbook precision.
Strong trade discipline, especially during midday stagnation.
Reinforced importance of planning and scenario-based thinking.

Key Takeaway: Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t take. Execute your plan, respect your levels, and let the market come to you.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Markets Near Record Highs
- S&P 500 last closed at 6144.15 (Feb 19, 2025 ATH)
- Nasdaq last closed at 20173.89 (Dec 16, 2024 ATH)
Trade Developments
- US/China talks in London resulted in framework reaffirming the Geneva consensus
- China to accelerate rare earth shipments to U.S. for auto and defense sectors
- U.S. exploring a duty-free steel import deal with Mexico under historical volume limits
Economic Data & Earnings
- May Core CPI expected at 2.9% YoY
- Key releases today:
  - CPI @ 8:30am ET
  - Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET
  - Federal Budget Balance @ 2:00pm ET
- Earnings: Chewy (premarket), Oracle (after the bell)
Market Action & Sentiment
- Volatility edged up Tuesday, ES 5-day ADR at 67 pts
- Whale bias is short into CPI on light but notable overnight volume
- ES maintains its short-term uptrend channel – grinding higher

ES

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6032.50. This level is the key pivot for today’s session.

Currently, the ES is trading around 6035.00, holding above the bull/bear line. If buyers can keep the price above 6032.50, the first test of resistance will be the prior high at 6049.50. A move through that level would bring the upper range target of 6079.50 into focus. The next major resistance above that is at 6123.75.

If the market fails to hold above 6032.50, it would indicate a shift to bearish sentiment. Initial support can be found at 6012.25, followed by the prior low at 5991.25. A sustained break lower would target the lower range target of 5985.50.

In summary, the intraday trend is bullish as long as the price remains above 6032.50. A break below this critical level would give sellers control.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 21,915.50. This is the key pivot level that will likely determine the direction for the session.

Currently, NQ is trading around 21,933.25, finding support above the bull/bear line. As long as the price remains above 21,915.50, the outlook is bullish. The first resistance level is the prior high at 21,992.25. A break above that level would target the upper range target for today at 22,131.25. Continued strength could see a test of 22,334.25.

If the price fails to hold above 21,915.50, it would signal a shift in momentum. The first support is at 21,888.75, followed by 21,824.00. A sustained move lower would bring the lower range target of 21,699.80 into play.

In summary, buyers are in control as long as the market holds above 21,915.50. A break below this level would turn the intraday trend bearish.