on June 13, 2025

This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

The ES traded down to 5987.75 on Globex and opened 6014 on the 9:30 regular session open. It rallied, pulled back, rallied again, pulled back again, and then traded in an 8-point range for four hours.

Fast forward to 3:04 p.m., and the ES traded 6048.50, up 20.5 points or +0.32%. I want to point something out: while the ES continues to move higher, I urge you to look at the net changes over the last month and how those changes have narrowed — see historical chart. While there are still some 1% and 2% days, it’s crazy — like clockwork — the ES sold off down to the 6038 area, and the MIM pops up with $2 billion to sell.

It played out exactly as I said — the selling dried up, and the ES popped to a new high at 6051.25 before settling at 6042.50, up 13.5 points on the day. In the end, the ES’s overall tone was firm. As for the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.25 million contracts.

Remember, the normal rollover used to start on the Thursday before Triple Witching, but the CME changed the roll to Monday. Today, we will be looking at the SEPTEMBER contracts.

In yesterday’s Opening Print, I wrote about how I thought we could see higher prices, BUT I also pointed out that the ES had already rallied 1232.75 points from its 4832.00 low, and the NQ had rallied 5646 points. Let’s face it: after such a big run, there should be letdowns and pullbacks.

The ES traded 6045.00 on last night’s Globex open and then dropped down to 5927.50, down 118 points, after headlines reported that Israel attacked Iran’s capital early Friday. The strikes targeted the country’s nuclear program and killed the leader of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Hossein Salami, along with another official and two nuclear scientists.

The Trump administration claimed they were not informed by the Israelis of the impending attack — I don’t believe that for a minute. Around 10:40 PM, Iran said that Israel and America would pay the price.

Oil rocketed up to $77.62, gold rallied to $3,467.00, up $150.00 this week, and Bitcoin sold off down to $103,010.

Our Lean

I don’t expect that the Israeli attack on Iran will be a one-and-done situation. I also think Israel will start a campaign to degrade Iran’s military — similar to what they did with Hamas and Hezbollah — but this will take days, and there will be a lot of destruction and people dying.

Even if the U.S. didn’t know about the attack, Israel had to be using U.S. bunker busters. I think today will be a headline hell, with Trump sounding off.

Our lean is to start looking for where the key support levels are now: 5880.00, 5868, 5960, 5833, 5816, 5800, 5780. I think you sell the rips, but I can’t rule out trying to catch some falling knives either.

Guest Posts:

SpotGamma Founders Note:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night’s Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

Founder’s Note:

Futures are off 1%, which is a large improvement from the -3% overnight lows. The selling is obviously due to the Israel/Iran strikes last night. Consumer Sentiment is at 10AM ET.

TLDR: This rally back to 6k is quite suspect, and we are on watch for another visit of the 5,900 area, using 6k as heavy resistance.

The initial news broke the SPX/ES 6k level, ultimately leading to a test of ES 5,925 – and then there was a massive directional rally all the way back to ES ~5,995. One huge mean reversion.

We have 2 thoughts on this:

1) The mean reversion is not terribly surprising given the massive positive gamma at 5,905 – we see that as generating some long hedging flow into 5,905 and from there its kind of a reflexive “body in motion stays in motion” with the rally back to 6k. You can see just how 45° linear the move is in ES overnight, too, suggesting some algorithmic action (vs a quick huge jump on positive news).

2) As far as the news suggests, this isn’t over & so traders are not likely looking to be short vol into the weekend. This zaps sustained buying fuel for today.

The big indicator to watch here is vol, which should be more of a stable signal that whipping ES/SPX price action. Fixed strike vol for SPX is up +1-3 pts across the board, which is significant. The most interesting part of the surface shift is for tail risk, as you can see the options <5,600 are the most green on the matrix below. We set the grid to compare vol from right now vs last nights close – and that relatively brighter shade of green to the left is what implies those tails are bid. Tails bid makes sense – many are trying to cover tensions escalating even more. Lets hope things don’t get worse.

Don’t forget, FOMC is next week too, which should retain some event vol making short vol here maybe tough for the next week – even outside of global conflict.

These tensions are obviously bullish for oil (CL +7%) and GLD (+1%). In yesterday’s AM note we flagged the dispersion taking place in vols, and you can see those GLD & USO now moving up the Compass map, indicating higher IV. Those IV’s will be even higher this AM (Compass strikes to last nights close). One certainly gets the feeling that GLD and USO “knew something”….and per yesterday’s AM note we may start looking at selling +1month USO call spreads given the rich IV.

Get i nstant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES market experienced a session characterized by initial weakness followed by a strong rebound and then a late-day decline, ultimately closing higher than the previous cash close.

The overnight Globex session set a mixed tone for the day. ES began the Globex session at 6022.25 and reached its overnight high of 6032.00 at 10:25 PM ET. It then retreated, finding its overnight low of 5987.75 at 1:00 AM ET. This marked a 34.25-point decline from the overnight high, representing a -0.57% change. By the time the cash session opened at 9:30 AM ET, ES was trading lower than its previous cash close, indicating early bearish sentiment.

The regular cash session began at 9:30 AM ET with ES opening at 6014.00. Early trading saw a decline, reaching a low of 6008.50 at 9:35 AM. However, buyers quickly stepped in, initiating a strong rally that pushed ES to an intraday high of 6051.00 at 11:30 AM, a gain of 42.50 points (+0.71%) from the morning low. Following this peak, the market experienced a pullback, reaching a low of 6029.00 at 11:20 AM, shedding 21.00 points (-0.36%) from the 11:00 AM high.

From the 11:20 low, the ES pushed back up towards the day’s highs, peaking at 6049.50 (up 20.50, 0.34%) at 1:30 PM. Price then chopped around in the 12-point range, making a series of highs and lows.

At 3:20 PM the contract traded 6049.50 and dropped down to 6037.25 to set up for the closing 10 minutes. The MOC close saw the market make a 14-point recovery into the close. As the regular session concluded at 4:00 PM ET, ES settled at 6050.50, reflecting a 36.50-point gain (+0.61%) from its opening price and a 22.00-point increase (+0.36%) from the previous day’s cash close.

The cleanup session from 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM ET saw further volatility. The session ultimately closed at 6042.50, resulting in an 8.25-point decrease (-0.14%) from the regular session close. Overall, the full session, from the overnight Globex open to the cleanup close, saw a net gain of 20.25 points (+0.34%).

The overall market tone for the day was one of resilience, as despite early weakness and some intraday pullbacks, the ES managed to close significantly higher than the prior day’s cash close. The total volume for the regular session was 877,765 contracts, while the full session volume reached 1,141,576 contracts, indicating healthy participation.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data showed a significant bias towards selling, with a total dollar imbalance of -$2B by 3:54 PM. The symbol imbalance also reflected this bearish sentiment, with -57.4% of symbols favoring the sell side. At the 3:59 PM snapshot, the symbol imbalance was -60.6%, leaning even more heavily to the sell side. The strong sell imbalance at the close likely contributed to the late-day decline in ES prices, as evidenced by the drop during the cleanup session. The next session will likely be influenced by this late-day selling pressure, potentially leading to a softer open.

How to read the MIM

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6033.25. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. Above this level, we look for potential buying opportunities on dips.

Currently, ES is trading around 5981.50, indicating weakness below the bull/bear line. If the price remains below this level, expect further downside pressure, targeting 5995.00, our lower range target for today, and 5987.75. A break below these levels could extend the decline towards 5958.75 and 5884.25.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 6022.25, then at 6042.50, and then at 6051.25. Our upper range target is 6071.75. If ES can reclaim 6033.25 and hold above, a test of these resistance levels is likely. Bulls need sustained strength above 6071.75 to confirm a potential reversal, with further upside potential towards 6107.75.

Overall, the trend remains bearish below 6033.25, and caution is warranted until this level is reclaimed. The bull’s job today is to close near 6033.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 21,883.50. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. Above this level, we look for potential buying opportunities on dips.

Currently, NQ is trading around 21,666.25, indicating weakness below the bull/bear line. If the price remains below this level, expect further downside pressure, targeting 21,548.75. A break below these levels could extend the decline towards 21,214.00. For bulls to start a crawl back up, they will first need to get through 21,711.50 before attempting to reclaim the bull/bear line at 21,883.50.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 21,977.25 and then at 22,056.00, our upper range target. If NQ can reclaim 21,883.50 and hold above, a test of these resistance levels is likely. Bulls need sustained strength above 22,056.00 to confirm a potential reversal.

Overall, the trend remains bearish below 21,883.50, and caution is warranted until this level is reclaimed. The longer-term bull/bear line has drifted lower to below 22,225.25 and now sits at 22,218.25. A bullish sentiment would resume only if prices move back above this longer-term bull/bear line.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for June 13, 2025

SP: 4.16
NQ: 17.84
Dow: 20.67

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, June 12, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 77% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 75% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 72 / 26
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 157 / 62
• NYSE TRIN: 1.43
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.25

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, June 6, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 188 / 83
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 411 / 191
• NYSE TRIN: 1.44
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.32

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Thursday, June 12, 2025

The trading day was defined by a bullish recovery and strong upside follow-through, showcasing textbook execution of the PTG trading strategy.

Key Highlights & Positive Trades:

Early Weakness, Then Reclaim: Initial market softness with critical support at 6000-6005 broken overnight. The bulls regained footing during RTH, reclaiming the 6000 level, which set the tone for a bullish lean.
Line in the Sand: David identified 6025 as a key pivot. The market initially rejected it, but once reclaimed, this became a solid base for a powerful move upward.
Play of the Day: A discount long entry at 6020 was highlighted and executed perfectly as price advanced to 6045 and then 6050 – both tagged to the tick. This was a high-conviction, criteria-based trade that exemplified patience and alignment with structure.
@NQ Open Range Long Target 1 hit, affirming the bullish bias was effective across instruments.
End-of-Day Strength: Despite a $1.7B MOC sell imbalance, the bulls held strong. Supply was “sucked up” efficiently, demonstrating market resilience and closing the session on the highs.

Lessons & Insights:

Discipline in Bias: David emphasized the importance of aligning with the dominant structure. He pointed out the misalignment of those attempting shorts despite clear long signals.
Coaching the Inner Trader: David encouraged traders to self-coach with kindness and reflection rather than frustration when trades are missed.
Community Engagement: Positive reinforcement and learning shared among members—like Bruce F recovering from a stop-out for a solid win and slatitude39 sharing a 3.5-point scalp—helped foster a supportive atmosphere.
Market Psychology: The discussion on scarcity and mindset underscored how psychology influences trading decisions.

Market Outlook:

The session closed with price at highs, indicating strong bullish momentum. David noted the potential for continued expansion into Friday (Cycle Day 2), suggesting a bullish bias remains intact.

Overall, it was a day of structured trading, timely signals, and reinforcing the value of trading with discipline and alignment.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, June 13, 2025

Geopolitical Shock:
- Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites, citing weapons concerns.
- Iran responded with over 100 drones toward Israeli territory.
- Oil spiked +10%, gold neared all-time highs, USD +0.3%.
- U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed no U.S. involvement and warned against targeting U.S. assets.
Macro Risk Rising:
- President Trump floated auto tariffs, plus unilateral tariffs within two weeks.
- He continued pressure on the Fed for a rate cut, saying he “may have to force something.”
Tech/AI Moves:
- AMD launched MI350 AI chips to compete with Nvidia’s Blackwell.
- Also introduced MI400 series (vs. Nvidia Rubin) and AMD Developer Cloud.
- Nvidia’s DGX Cloud Lepton launched last month.
Economic Calendar:
- University of Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00am ET.
Market Structure & Flow:
- ES futures fell to short-term uptrend support (~5940/43) and bounced.
- 200-day MA at 5904 = loose support.
- Key resistance: 6156/61.
- Whale flow bias is bearish into US open.
- 5-day ES average range: 57.75 pts.
Next Week:
- Fed rate decision Wednesday.
- U.S. markets closed Thursday (Juneteenth holiday).
- Volatility expected to stay high.