Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  08:30ET Retail Sales Advance, Import Price Index, Export Price Index, NY Fed Services Business
Activity; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing (SIC) Production; 10:00ET Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index

Highlights and News:  

• TRUMP: I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form
• Trump Says Pharma Tariffs Coming Very Soon
• KRAFT HEINZ TO REMOVE ARTIFICIAL DYES FROM US GOODS BY 2027:WSJ
• XI SAYS CHINA READY TO PLAY CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE FOR MIDEAST PEACE
• ISRAEL TO ATTACK SIGNIFICANT TARGETS IN TEHRAN TODAY: KATZ
• Trump said that the EU has not yet offered a fair deal on trade
• US MAY RETAIL SALES FALL 0.9% M/M; EST. -0.6%

Global stocks declined and oil rose as the Israel-Iran conflict persisted into its fifth day, heightening investor fears of a wider regional war, amid a week filled
with several central bank decisions. Trump left the Group of Seven leaders’ meeting in Canada early to focus on the situation in the Middle East. Asked aboard Air Force One what he was looking for in the conflict between Israel and Iran, Trump responded, “An
end. A real end, not a ceasefire, an end.”  Meanwhile, Iran said it fired hundreds of advanced drones toward Israel, according to IRNA. Israel struck Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday, while the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog reported extensive damage
to Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility. Israel’s defense minister said Israel is not in talks with Iran and Israel would attack significant targets in Tehran today.  

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fell after President Trump departed the G7 summit a day early and called for the evacuation of Tehran, in remarks that contrasted with earlier optimism that the conflict
between Israel and Iran wouldn’t escalate into a wider war. Trump posted on social media that President Macron of France was wrong when he said Trump left the G7 Summit to go back to DC to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. The hasty departure
fanned speculation that the US might be readying more aggressive support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s operation. The S&P 500 has barely budged in five trading sessions, posting a muted reaction to last week’s positive consumer and producer price
index reports. US Retail Sales Decline by the Most Since Start of the Year.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.7%, DJI -0.4%.

In pre-market trading, Solar stocks tumble after Senate Republicans released a bill that would end tax credits for wind and solar earlier than for other sources. Sunrun
(RUN) -32%, Enphase (ENPH) -18%. Digital Turbine (DYN) climbs 9% after the provider of software used in mobile phones reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share above analyst expectations. Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) drops 24% after announcing an updated
plan for obtaining US accelerated approval for DYNE-101 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1 following a meeting with the FDA and analysis of new long-term functional data. Immuneering (IMRX) jumps 10% after the drug developer gave data from a mid-stage
trial of its investigative combination therapy to treat pancreatic cancer patients. Redwire Corp. (RDW) falls 13% after the aerospace and defense technology firm said it was offering $200 million of shares. Verve Therapeutics (VERV) soars 75% after Eli Lilly
& Co. agreed to buy the company for as much as $1.3 billion. T-Mobile US (TMUS) falls 4% after SoftBank sold 21.5 million of the telecom operator’s shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. Softbank will use the proceeds to help fund its investments
in AI.

European gauges fell after President Trump played down the chance of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, weighing on investor sentiment and pushing oil prices
higher. The Stoxx 600 is holding below opening losses, with most industry sectors losing ground while energy stocks outperform. Among individual stocks, FDJ United advanced as much as 4.6% as analysts at JPMorgan said the French lottery and sports betting
company sits at an attractive entry point and initiated coverage with an overweight recommendation. Music label Universal Music drops 3.5% after an offering of about 14 million shares, while Amadeus IT Group falls ~3% on another share sale.  Stoxx 600 -0.6%,
DAX -0.8%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Banks -2%, Telecom -1.2%, Media -1.2%, Technology -1.1%. Energy +0.8%.

Shares in Asia traded mixed in choppy trade, as concerns over the Israel-Iran conflict countered gains in technology shares on optimism over artificial intelligence.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index settled +0.2%, with chipmakers TSMC and Samsung among the biggest boosts. Stocks rose in Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan while Chinese shares drifted lower. Asian semiconductor-related shares largely gain as momentum continues to build
for AI-related trades. Shares of China’s innovative drugmakers rise as the industry regulator proposes shortening the review-and-approve process for qualified products’ clinical trial applications. In regional news, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark
interest rate at 0.5%, as expected. It also confirmed it will taper its bond purchases at a slower pace starting next April. Taiwan +0.7%, Vietnam +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +0.6%, Singapore +0.6%, Indonesia +0.5%, Philippines +0.2%, Kospi +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.1%, CSI
300 -0.1%, Sensex -0.3%, Hang Seng Index -0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer across maturities, outperforming European bonds after President Trump played down the likelihood of a ceasefire in Israel’s war with Iran. Treasury
yields are lower by 4bp-6bp with curve spreads little changed; 10-year is down about 4bp at 4.405%. 2s10s down 1bp.  Supply from the EU and Germany pushed 10yr EGB’s higher in yield by 3bps. IG dollar new-issue slate includes offerings from EIB and KfW along
with Hyundai Capital America’s, expected to price during US afternoon.  Treasury’s $23 billion 5-year TIPS reopening at 1pm New York time follows good demand for a 20-year nominal bond sale Monday.

METALS: 

Gold fluctuated as investors tracked hostilities in the Middle East, with Donald Trump playing down the prospects of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.  Spot gold
traded near $3,390 an ounce in a choppy session so far. The rally in gold prices is coming to an end according to Citigroup analysts, who see the prices sinking back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters. Declining investment demand for gold from the
fourth quarter of 2025 may come from “any modest improvement in global growth confidence” as a stimulative US budget takes effect, and Trump’s trade and other policies become less bearish, the Citigroup analysts said. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +1.6%, Copper
-0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose more than 2% after President Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran as Israel and Iran traded strikes for a fifth day. Oil prices had closed lower
Monday on reports that Iran was seeking a ceasefire with Israel. But prices are rising again, as the Israeli military said it killed Iran’s war-time chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani in an airstrike. Iran launched another volley of missiles at Israel.
Trump, meanwhile, said in a social media post that the U.S. was working on something “much bigger” than a ceasefire, without elaborating. The IEA said oil markets look ‘well supplied’ in 2025, absent any shocks, adding that China’s oil demand will peak earlier
than expected.  WTI +2.3%, Brent +2.3%, US Nat Gas +1.9%, RBOB +1.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed while yen fluctuated as outcomes from the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting were broadly in line with expectations, yet Governor
Ueda’s comments leaned on the dovish side. The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged and unveiled a plan to step back from the bond market at a slower pace from next year, a sign of caution after heightened market volatility. The euro inches up after investor
confidence in Germany’s economy improved more than anticipated as a coming surge in public spending outweighs fears over looming US tariffs. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.25%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%,
USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.5%.

Bitcoin -2.8%, Ethereum -4.4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alkermes (ALKS) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $42
• Comstock Resources (CRK) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $34
• Cooper Cos (COO) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $94
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $100
• Downgrades
• Borr Drilling (BORR) Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT $1.90
• Cantaloupe Inc (CTLP) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• FrontView REIT (FVR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12
• Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$25
• Health Catalyst (HCAT) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Millicom (TIGO) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $37
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $7
• Noble Corp. (NE) Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT $28.50
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT $68
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $8.50
• Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• Transocean (RIG) Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT $1.90
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• Initiations
• Acumen Pharma (ABOS) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $4
• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $12
• Arcellx (ACLX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $110
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $806
• Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $55
• Beazer Homes (BZH) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $25
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $49
• Capital Southwest (CSWC) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $23.50
• Century Communities (CCS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $68
• Circle Internet (CRCL) US Rated New Neutral at President Capital Management
• Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $353.30
• D.R. Horton (DHI) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $130
• EOG Resources (EOG) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $137
• Eyepoint (EYPT) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $28
• Green Brick (GRBK) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $71
• High Liner Foods (HLF CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$22
• JBS (JBS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $22
• Legacy Housing (LEGH) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $29
• LGI Homes (LGIH) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $56
• Newamsterdam Pharma (NAMS) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $42
• Novavax (NVAX) Rated New Sell at Citi; PT $6
• Opus Genetics Inc (IRD) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $5
• Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $72
• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $80
• Runway Growth Finance (RWAY) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $11
• Sarepta (SRPT) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Theravance Bio (TBPH) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $24
• Venture Global (VG) Rated New Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $20
• Vertex Inc (VERX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $48

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke