Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Employment Change

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Tax Bill Hits Republican Resistance in House Ahead of Vote
• Trump Sticks With July 9 Tariff Deadline While Criticizing Japan
• US Halts Key Ukraine Weapons Deliveries
• House lawmakers are voting today or Thursday on the Senate version of Trump’s tax bill
• Israel agreed to the conditions needed for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, Trump said

Global stocks edged up as investors considered potential US interest rate reductions and countries rushed to secure trade agreements before President Trump’s July
9 tariff deadline. Trump threatened Japan with tariffs of up to 35%, fueling fears of a worst-case scenario. Trump also said he is not considering delaying his July 9 deadline and renewed his threat to cut off talks and impose duty rates on several nations,
although he expects a deal with India soon. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was determined to protect his country’s national interests as trade negotiations with the US struggled. Meanwhile, Hamas has turned down Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire
already approved by Israel. The European Union’s trade chief is expected to hold negotiations this week in Washington to avert higher US tariffs. Reports say Hamas is holding firm on its demand that any agreement must guarantee a full end to the war in Gaza.
The Trump administration is halting the transfer of artillery rounds and air defenses to Ukraine after a review of US munitions stockpiles.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures reverse earlier gains as traders await a House vote on the Senate version of Trump’s tax bill and Thursday’s payrolls. With the job openings data pointing to a hotter
economy, market expectations are building that today’s ADP Research employment figures and Thursday’s non-farm payrolls will also indicate robust economic activity. Goldman Sachs’ High Beta Momo Index, which is long high-momentum winners and short the losers,
just posted its biggest one-day drop since China’s DeepSeek rocked the AI trade in January. The drop was likely caused by a rotation out of hot trades and into laggards, and Goldman said it was potentially exacerbated by high gross positioning exposure in
prime book and high net leverage. In corporate news, some of Wall Street’s largest lenders boosted dividends after passing this year’s Fed stress tests. Centene shares are plunging in premarket trading after pulling its 2025 guidance, weighing on other health
insurers. Renewable stocks are in focus today as a proposed excise tax targeting Chinese-made components was removed from the Senate GOP tax bill. The legislation still faces opposition from House conservatives eager to kill clean energy credits

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Apple (AAPL) climbs 0.7% following an upgrade at Jefferies. Tesla (TSLA) rises 0.8% as the company saw its first increase in vehicle deliveries
from its Shanghai factory this year. BrightView (BV) declines 8% after the commercial landscaping company cut its revenue guidance for the full year. Cava Group (CAVA) edges 2% higher after KeyBanc initiated coverage of the Mediterranean restaurant chain with
a recommendation of overweight as it sees growth opportunities. Centene Corp. (CNC) tumbles 27% after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance. Crocs (CROX) slips 1% after Goldman Sachs started coverage of the footwear company with a sell rating. Oscar
Health (OSCR) falls 10% as Barclays initiates coverage at underweight. Verint Systems (VRNT) gains 9% after Bloomberg News reported that the call-center software maker is in talks with buyout firm Thoma Bravo to acquire the company.

European gauges are higher amid a flurry of deals. Shares in Spectris jumped 5.3% after KKR offered to buy the British company, while Sabadell rose 5.1% after Banco
Santander agreed to buy its TSB business. Shares in Hellenic Exchanges surged close to 15% as Euronext announced it was in talks to buy the Athens stock market operator. The Stoxx 600 slips from intraday highs after the ADP report but holding gains as miners
and auto sector outperform while retail and real estate lead losses. The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to reduce borrowing costs further, according to Governing Council member Mario Centeno, despite inflation being at their 2% target. Stoxx 600 +0.2%,
DAX +0.2%, CAC +1.1%, FTSE 100 -0.05%. Basic Resources +2.5%, Energy +1.8%, Autos +1.7%. Real Estate -2.3%, Retail -1.5%, Technology -1.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, trading in a narrow range as fresh tariff threats from President Trump weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended 0.1% lower
with Nintendo, Mitsubishi Heavy and Advantest among the biggest drags. Japanese shares slid after Trump threatened to impose levies of 30%-35% on imports amid dim prospects for a deal before next week’s deadline. Japanese gaming-related shares fell after analysts
raised concerns about overvaluations in the sector. Hong Kong stocks rebounded, driven by banks and casino operators, as the market reopened following a holiday, while Australia’s benchmark closed at a record. Shares in Thailand fluctuated between gains and
losses after its prime minister was suspended from office. Asian copper stocks advanced after the metal rose to a three-month high on signs of recovering factory activity in China. ASX 200 +0.65%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%, Singapore +0.5%, Thailand +0.5%, Vietnam
+0.5%, Taiwan +0.1%, CSI 300 +0.02%. Philippines -0.1%, Sensex -0.3%, Kospi -0.5%, Indonesia -0.5%, Nikkei 225 -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are lower for a second day ahead of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. Market expectations are building that upcoming
employment numbers will reflect a hotter economy, leading traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.285% after reaching a two-month low Tuesday. Two-year rates rise two basis points to 3.795%.
2s10s and 5s30s steepen by ~3bps, partially unwinding Tuesday’s flattening move.

METALS: 

Gold steadied as investors evaluated concerns over the US fiscal situation alongside expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing trajectory, ahead of crucial
economic data releases. Bullion is slightly higher near $3,343 an ounce — following a gain of 2% over the previous two sessions. Investors are focused on tomorrows US employment report for June, projected to show a slowdown in payrolls growth and an uptick
in unemployment, which may strengthen the case for cuts by the Fed. Copper is wrestling with a supply squeeze in Peru, where protests and blockades are already slowing shipments. LME inventories are nearing multi-year lows, and the premium for prompt delivery
is flashing stress signs in both London and Shanghai. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +0.7%, Copper +0.8%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices gain while the market is also looking to planned supply hikes by OPEC+. which appear to have been already priced in, analysts said in the report. The group
is set to meet on July 6 to discuss production plans.  Crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.42 million barrels last week, the API reported. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January and also cut holdings at the hub close to minimum operating
levels of 20 million. Brazilian crude exports hit a two-month high in June. Flows to China jumped 47%, offsetting declines to the US and Europe. WTI +1.2%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB +0.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose versus all Group-of-10 peers amid profit taking ahead of key US data releases. Aussie$ slides after weaker-than-expected retail
sales figures prompted traders to cement expectations for a third interest rate cut as soon as next week. The euro is lower, heading for its first drop in 10 days. Some policymakers are concerned about the recent strength of the euro, which could drag consumer-price
growth below target. Sterling fell with investors looking past changes to UK fiscal policy late Tuesday. Keir Starmer abandoned his flagship welfare reforms, leaving the UK prime minister’s authority badly damaged. Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor has
urged a quicker pace of interest rate cuts, advocating for three additional reductions this year amid growing concerns over a potential hard landing for the UK economy. Yen gains as Japan’s efforts to maintain a friendly approach to trade negotiations are
being tested as President Trump ramps up pressure for a deal ahead of a looming tariff deadline. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.7%, EURUSD -0.5%, USDJPY +0.55%, AUDUSD -0.5%, NZDUSD -0.7%, USDCHF +0.35%, USDSEK +0.6%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum +1.3%.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• ABM Industries (ABM) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $58
• Apogee Enterprises (APOG) Raised to Outperform at Kansas City Capital
• Apple (AAPL) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $188.32
• Ecopetrol (ECOPETL CB) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $10
• National Health Investors (NHI) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $77
• PagSeguro (PAGS) Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $13
• Ross Stores (ROST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $150
• SLB (SLB) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT $43
• Visteon (VC) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $123
• WisdomTree (WT) Raised to Buy at Northcoast; PT $15
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $280
• Aptiv (APTV) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $8.80
• ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $170
• Centene (CNC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $48
• Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $45
• Cousins Properties (CUZ) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Highwoods (HIW) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Innovative Industrial (IIPR) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• KeyCorp (KEY) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $18
• Stellantis (STLA) Cut to Underperform at Wolfe
• Initiations
• Amcor (AMCR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $12
• Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $5.50
• Block (XYZ) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $80
• Camtek/Israel (CAMT) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $100
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $28
• Rated New Neutral at Compass Point; PT $33
• Crocs (CROX) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $88
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $20
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $90
• Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) ADRs Rated New Buy at Texas Capital
• IonQ (IONQ) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $45
• IQSTEL (IQST) Rated New Buy at Litchfield Hills; PT $18
• Jabil (JBL) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $245
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $17
• Phillips Edison (PECO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $37
• Primo Brands (PRMB) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $38
• Qifu Technology (QFIN) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $65
• Quantum Computing (QUBT) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $15
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $15
• Tanger (SKT) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $33
• Under Armour (UAA) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $7
• Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $26

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke