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Our View

There is an old saying that markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

Well, I think that sounds right. The ES and NQ could not have looked worse on April 7, but 61 trading days later, the ES has rallied 28.8% and the NQ has rallied 35.9% after falling into bear market territory.

If you recall, I did a big piece about what happens when the S&P falls +20% and posted the bullish stats surrounding those declines, but I must admit, I didn’t buy and hold. Why? Because I didn’t follow my own work.

Part of the rally yesterday saw the S&P and NASDAQ reach fresh record highs after Tuesday’s decline, when Trump’s tax bill squeaked through the Senate. On Wednesday, Trump said he struck a deal with Vietnam that will allow American goods to enter the country duty-free, while Vietnamese goods would face a 20% tariff under the new agreement. He also raised the prospect of imposing unilateral tariffs on countries that do not strike a deal by the July 9 tariff deadline.

I told the PitBull that I think the markets are still going higher—maybe a lot higher—and that as we get closer to July 9, the markets will start reacting to all the headlines leading up to the deadline and after.

It’s been easy for the bulls. The move up and the lower summer volumes have made it very easy to push the stock market higher, and I think this will continue. But I also expect to see some selling show up as we get closer to Trump’s tariff deadlines.

Reminder: Markets close at 1:00 PM today and are closed tomorrow for Independence Day

The markets are closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday. That means the June jobs number and the week-one options expirations are scheduled for today.

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a below-consensus non-farm payroll of 85k, which is noticeably lower than the 113k consensus. There is $2.9 trillion in options expiring today.

My guess is that with a record 72.2 million people traveling 50 miles or more over the 4th of July holiday, we could see another round of “thin to win.” Should the ES gap lower, my lean is to buy the open. If the ES gaps sharply higher and moves above 6290, I would look to sell the open, cover, and look for a place to get long again. Keep an eye on 6299.

Below are some very good @Handelstats studies. As I have said in the past, Rich’s work has really improved since he started using AI to help with some of the coding he does. He wants to make it very clear that he still does most of the coding himself, but AI has lowered the number of hours he works and has increased his productivity.

NDX, S&P 500, July NFP Studies – Rich Miller, @Handelstats

📊 NDX Update (Nasdaq 100) – July 2, 2025 Close
📅 YTD Gain: +7.76%
📈 June Performance: +5.59%
🚀 From 2025 Low to July High: +37.35%

After bottoming in April with a sharp -25.56% drawdown from the February highs, the Nasdaq 100 has exploded higher, reclaiming its all-time highs and surging 37% off the lows.

📌 The index is now nearly +8% on the year, with tech leadership firmly back in control. Watch for potential support near 22,222 and key levels below at 21,012 and 20,101 if pullbacks occur.

Momentum favors continuation — for now.

#NDX #Nasdaq100 #TechStocks #MarketUpdate #HandelStats #AllTimeHighs

📈 S&P 500 Snapshot (as of 7/2/25 Close)
✅ +5.88% YTD
✅ +4.42% in June
🚀 +28.80% rally from April lows to July high

After a sharp 17.79% correction (December close to April low) into April, the SPX has surged to new all-time highs, marking one of the strongest post-correction rallies in recent years.

👉 The path of least resistance remains up unless key support zones near 6111 and 5881 give way.

#SPX #StockMarket #AllTimeHigh #MarketRally #TechnicalAnalysis #HandelStats

July NFP Playbook: Bullish Bias with Limited Downside

The July Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release has historically offered a favorable setup for ES traders. Since 2008, the ES has closed higher on 10 of the past 17 July employment days (58.82% positive rate). However, zooming in on the last 10 years, that win rate jumps to 70% (7 of 10).

More importantly, the down days have been shallow, suggesting limited risk on the short side. For example, in the last decade, all negative sessions closed with modest losses — generally under 0.4%. On the flip side, several upside reactions have posted gains of 0.7% or more.

This asymmetric behavior presents a tactical edge:

Bias: Bullish tilt into NFP

Downside: Historically muted

Upside potential: Often exceeds 0.75%

Volatility note: Larger ranges are possible if payrolls surprise vs consensus

Strategy Consideration: Long-biased setups into NFP or post-dip recovery entries have historically provided favorable risk-reward. Options traders may explore call spreads or directional trades with tight stops, while futures traders could position around key support levels from prior sessions or VWAP zones.

Stay alert for headline risk, but history favors bulls into July NFP.

MiM and Daily Recap

Intraday Recap

The session opened on Wednesday with a soft overnight Globex tone. Prices began the overnight session at 6247.75 before dipping to a Globex low of 6235.50, marking a decline of 12.25 points from the open. As the cash market opened at 9:30 AM, ES had already recovered, printing 6247.50.

A strong early push unfolded after the open, driving prices to 6267.75 by 11:45 AM. This advance represented a 28.5-point gain (+0.46%) off the earlier session low. A midday retracement occurred shortly after, with ES slipping to 6260.50 at 12:00 PM, trimming 6.25 points (-0.10%).

From that midday dip, buyers regrouped, sending the index to a fresh intraday high of 6269.00 at 1:30 PM. This move added another 8.5 points (+0.14%). A brief retracement followed, reaching 6245.00 by 1:40 PM, down 4.5 points (-0.07%).

Momentum then picked up strongly into the midafternoon as the index advanced to the day’s regular session peak of 6273.75 at 3:00 PM, notching a 9.25-point gain (+0.15%) from the preceding pullback. However, profit-taking soon emerged, and prices faded to 6268.00 by 3:40 PM, off 5.75 points (-0.09%).

During the late afternoon cleanup session, ES climbed again to register an ultimate high of 6279.50 at 4:55 PM. This marked an 11.5-point rally (+0.18%) from the prior dip.

In total, the full session settled at 6277.00, representing a gain of 26.25 points (+0.42%) from the previous cash close. From the day’s open to close, ES advanced 29.25 points (+0.47%).

Volume began looking more seasonal, trading 770,957 contracts, while Globex turnover was comparatively lighter at 159,101 contracts.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

The tone throughout Wednesday was broadly constructive. Early weakness was met with persistent buying interest that carried steadily through the cash hours. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows underscored a sustained bullish bias, especially as each intraday dip was met with renewed demand.

No Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data was available due to technical issues affecting MiM reporting. This absence of MIM readings removed one layer of directional cues during the final hour, leaving price action more reactive to discretionary flows rather than programmatic buy or sell imbalances.

Despite the lack of closing imbalance data, the market maintained upward traction into the settlement, with the final cleanup print of 6277.00 holding near the day’s highs. This positioning suggests buyers remained engaged into the close, potentially carrying momentum into the next session.

Overall, Wednesday’s trade reflected solid underlying demand and positive sentiment, reinforced by a strong open-to-close advance and broad participation across the day’s swings. Traders will be watching whether this bullish posture sustains on Thursday as the market continues to probe fresh highs.

How to read the MiM

Guest Posts:

Dan @ GTC Traders

A Warning for New and Aspiring Traders …

As the forever market continues higher, as we find ourselves in a world where benchmarks pile higher and standard metrics for valuation begin to surpass 2σ, let me tell you what I can recall from 2000 and what typically happens when the benchmark has a great single year that … generally … is when you start to see people fudge performance.

In my time, I have seen many, many, many tricks … wherein people try to ‘arrange’ performance metrics to look ‘better’. Better than what? Better than reality and better than what is accepted in the industry. That, in and of itself, is a tell. It’s a tell that the person in question doesn’t realize how seriously SROs and those you report to … take accuracy. Which in itself is a tell that ones ever sat through an audit and know anything ABOUT performance metrics in the first place … much less what is ethical.

I’d say 75% of the time? It’s a lack of knowledge of how to do it accurately, and ethically. But there is a 25% … and it’s usually found in trading education? That’s when you see the ‘tricks’ show up. And it is without question intentional.

Cash accounts that aren’t properly cross-margined and specified as such … are using far more cash than even a business margin would be allowed to use without getting a margin hit. Assuming allowances of what would even be permitted in a PORTFOLIO MARGIN account, for any cash equity transactions. I’ve seen people try to take programs, and SUM the performance of different trading programs; rather than properly registered from how the buying power is allocated and permitted by a broker.

“LOOK! I’m up 40% in 3 months with all the trading programs!” (Not that 40% is in itself impossible. It’s not, and has been done thousands of times. But a higher number generally garners a closer look from someone who can allocate because it IS possible. And that’s when the bologna surfaces on closer inspection ) .. or they start reporting performance on margin for single trades instead of program total on total capital. “Look, I’m up 84% this month”. And then you take a closer look … and you find out they are not up 84%. They returned 84% on a great binary trade from the MARGIN outlay or they have a capital contribution scheme, and are counting capital they added in.

Good grief.

There are many more little tricks than that … and often? You find a COMBINATION of much of the above! LOL. They’re basically using what amounts to Portfolio Margin (or in excess of it … to newer and aspiring RETAIL traders mind you … privileges a typical retail trader couldn’t gain access to in a BILLION years) while counting the capital they add in, and counting binary trades, or worse performance on margin outlay w/o specifying. ALL of the above!

Point being … all of the above comes from the human need to shine, which all comes down to ego.

Regardless, this entire article has been for the benefit of new and aspiring retail traders. Know that as this trend continues? The convexity to the bologna out there regarding returns WILL go through the roof.

All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again.

Or … as Hooverphonic now sings?

“Fake is the new dope … fake is the new hope. We all live … in a plastic world”

Until next time, stay safe … and trade well.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for July 3, 2025

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, June 27, 2025

S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)

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Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Morning Session Highlights:

Educational Focus:

Technical Issues:

Afternoon Session:

Positive Trades:

Lessons Learned:

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, July 3, 2025

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!