Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Jobless Claims; 9:00ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 1:00ET US to sell $22 billion 30-year
bond reopening; 2:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • RUBIO: LUTNICK TO GO TO JAPAN NEXT WEEK
  • RUBIO: WORKING ON MEETING WITH CHINA COUNTERPART ON THIS TRIP
  • MUSK SAYS GROK COMING TO TESLA CARS ‘NEXT WEEK AT THE LATEST’
  • US Global Jets ETF Jumps 4.3% Premarket After Delta’s Earnings
  • OPEC+ Discusses Pausing Output Hikes From October – Delegates
  • Trump appointed Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy as “interim administrator” of NASA
  • MODERNA’S COVID SHOT APPROVED BY FDA FOR USE IN CHILDREN

 

Global stocks steadied as investors assessed the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep rates steady, as well as Trump’s announcement to slap a 50% tariff on Brazilian
imports. The US goods trade surplus with Brazil was $7.4B in 2024, a 31.9% increase ($1.8 billion) over 2023. More than half of the orange juice sold in the US and around a third of the coffee consumed in the US comes from Brazil. A host of countries have
yet to receive their letters from Trump, and investors are also awaiting the progress of a deal between the US and the European Union. German exporters don’t want a deal at any price in the trade conflict with the United States, the head of the BGA trade lobby
said. An Indian trade delegation will visit Washington in the coming days for talks on a trade deal.  

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are largely unchanged as investors worked to move past the tariff uncertainty, following Nvidia’s lead in pushing the Nasdaq Composite to a new record high the previous
session.  Technology earnings will be closely watched when earnings season kicks off next week. Analysts forecast second-quarter profits for the Magnificent 7 to surge 14%, compared with a modest 2.8% increase expected for the S&P 500. Delta shares jumped
pre-market after reinstating a 2025 profit target, at $5.25 to $6.25 a share, in a sign demand is bouncing back. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was down almost 2% premarket as Trump made it political, citing a “witch hunt” trial against former President Jair
Bolsonaro as part of the reason for the tariff hike. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva later said that the country would respond to the 50% levy in accordance with its economic reciprocity law.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P ~flat, Nasdaq +0.02%, Russell 2000 -0.05%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Conagra Brands (CAG) falls 4% after the packaged food manufacturer posted 4Q sales that disappointed. Delta Air Lines (DAL) rises 12% after the
carrier issued a new profit target for this year after pulling the goal three months ago. Embraer (ERJ) ADRs fall 6% after President Donald Trump said he will impose 50% tariffs on goods from Brazil. Mach Natural Resources (MNR) shares are halted for news
pending. Mereo BioPharma Group (MREO) US-traded shares slide 34% and partner Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) drops 22% following a disappointing trial update for an experimental drug aimed at treating a bone disorder called osteogenesis imperfecta. MP Materials
(MP) soars 42% after the company struck a multi-billion-dollar public-private deal with the US Department of Defense to build a new magnet plant and expand rare earth capabilities. WK Kellogg (KLG) rises 51%, with Ferrero International SA said to be nearing
a deal to acquire it for about $3 billion.

European gauges are higher for a fourth straight day as miners rallied on the back of higher iron ore prices. Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore rallied more than
4%, buoyed by commodity prices and signs that China is taking steps to curb industrial overcapacity. The UK’s FTSE 100 gained over 1% to an all-time high, also driven by commodity stocks, as traders shook off news of a 50% US tariff on copper imports. The
Stoxx 600 eases off the highs of the day with technology stocks also outperforming, while banks weigh. Stocks with a heavy exposure to China gained on optimism in the country’s media regarding potential fiscal stimulus. Swiss cocoa grinder Barry Callebaut
AG sank 14% as it cut its sales volume guidance for a second time within months due to persistent cocoa bean price volatility. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX ~flat, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +1%. Basic Resources +3%, Technology +1.1%, Personal Goods +1.1%, Healthcare +0.8%.
Banks -1.1%, Utilities -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, with South Korean shares leading gains following the central bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index traded in a narrow range, with TSMC and SK Hynix the biggest boosts. TSMC’s revenue jumped a better-than-expected 39% in the June quarter. Chinese shares staged a late afternoon rally, fueled by speculation a high-level meeting will be held next
week to help revive the struggling property sector. A gauge of Chinese property shares posted its biggest gain in almost nine months. Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index scaled to another new high with its fourth straight day of gains. JPMorgan is turning
more positive on Vietnam stocks after the country’s trade deal announcement with the US, upgrading its position to overweight. Japanese stocks underperformed as the yen rose, while concerns remained about US tariffs. Japanese automakers cut export prices to
the US by a record 19.4% in June as they adjust to Trump’s tariffs. Kospi +1.6%, Vietnam +1%, Indonesia +0.9%, Taiwan +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.6%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Singapore +0.4%. Sensex -0.4%, Topix -0.6%, Philippines -0.6%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper in early US trading, holding most of Wednesday’s gains ahead of weekly jobless claims data and 30-year bond auction.  US 10-year yield
tics up 1.5bps to 4.345% with the curve slightly flatter. The Treasury will sell $22 billion of 30-year bonds today after a solid sale of 10-year notes.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher for a second day as investors weighed President Trump’s latest trade demands and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cycle. Copper
futures widened their premium to the London benchmark overnight after Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. Copper traders are racing to get shipments into the US before the tariff hits. Futures in New York spiked to about a 25% premium
over benchmark prices.  LME copper rose 1%, snapping a five-day losing streak. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +0.5%, Copper futures +1.8%, LME Copper -1.3%. 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices slipped as tariff risks dimmed the energy demand outlook. Oil prices were on edge as Trump’s new tariff threats added to recent pressure on copper and
other imports, while a surprise 7.1-million-barrel US crude oil stockpile build also weighed. OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases after its next monthly hike, according to delegates. OPEC reinforced its view that global oil consumption
will keep increasing to the middle of the century.  Demand will grow by roughly 19% to reach almost 123 million barrels a day by 2050, the group said in a report. OPEC+ will probably make its next hike in collective output the last one for a while, Goldman’s
Daan Struyven said. The bank’s base case remains that the cartel will be done raising production once the 2.2 million barrel-a-day round of cuts is unwound. WTI -1.1%, Brent -0.9%, US Nat Gas -0.4%, RBOB -0.9%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus most of its Group-of-10 peers on lower-than-average volumes as traders await the release of US jobless claims to gauge
the health of the labor market The Norwegian krone outperforms after core inflation rose for the first time in four months. The Aussie dollar also gains, buoyed by the rally in iron ore. The Brazilian real languished near a one-month low on Trump’s tariff
threat on Latin America’s largest economy. The yen fluctuated as Japan’s 20-year government bond auction went off without spectacle, leaving an uneasy calm ahead of elections later this month as investors look for signs of a possible increase in the nation’s
debt.  US$ Index -0.01%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.25%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.02%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum +1.5% at 7:30ET.  Bitcoin extended its run of gains after touching a new all-time-high of $112,009 yesterday. MLIV said derivatives suggest
a potential rally to $120,000.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $200
    • Carlyle Group (CG) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $65
    • Frontier (FYBR) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $38.50
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $300
    • McDonald’s (MCD) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $345
    • National Health Investors (NHI) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Oracle (ORCL) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $270
    • Piper Sandler (PIPR) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $339
    • Roku (ROKU) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $115
    • Synovus (SNV) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $62
    • Trex (TREX) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $75
    • Zebra Tech (ZBRA) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $408
  • Downgrades
    • Centene (CNC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $33
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $67
    • Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Sell at HC Wainwright; PT $300
    • Columbia Banking (COLB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $27
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Cut to Hold at Needham
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Cut to Hold at Needham
    • CRH (CRH) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $105
    • Lockheed (LMT) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $480
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$15.60
    • MFA Financial (MFA) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $10
    • Molina (MOH) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $266
    • Mullen Group (MTL CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$16
    • Nike (NKE) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $76
    • Redwood Trust (RWT) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $6.50
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $269
    • RxSight (RXST) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $9
    • TFI International (TFII CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$140
    • TKO (TKO) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
    • UWM Holdings (UWMC) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $4.50
    • Verizon (VZ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $47
    • Verona Pharma (VRP LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
      • ADRs Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
      • ADRs Cut to Neutral at BTIG
      • ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $107
    • Workday (WDAY) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $235
  • Initiations
    • AMD (AMD) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Amkor Technology (AMKR) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $10
    • Analog Devices (ADI) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $285
    • ANI Pharma (ANIP) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $84
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $225
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $33
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $59
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $55
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $315
    • Burke & Herbert Financial Services (BHRB) US Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $70
    • Cadence Design (CDNS) Rated New Buy at Goldman
    • Candel Therapeutics (CADL) Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital; PT $25
    • CG Oncology (CGON) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $40
    • Crinetics Pharma (CRNX) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $36
    • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $48
    • Digital Realty (DLR) Reinstated Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Entegris (ENTG) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Equifax (EFX) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $280
    • Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $933
    • Fair Isaac (FICO) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $2,000
    • Geron (GERN) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $1
    • GlobalFoundries (GFS) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Halozyme (HALO) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $55
    • Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $33
    • Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at Guosheng Securities; PT $30
    • Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
    • Immunovant (IMVT) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $18
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $980
    • Lam Research (LRCX) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $115
    • Lucky Strike (LUCK) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $14
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Microchip (MCHP) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $88
    • Micron (MU) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
      • Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank
    • MKS Inc. (MKSI) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $90
    • Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $51
    • Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) US Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $39
    • Nvidia (NVDA) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $185
    • NXP Semi (NXPI) Rated New Buy at Goldman
    • ON Semi (ON) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Paychex (PAYX) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $160
    • Performant Healthcare (PHLT) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Rhythm Pharma (RYTM) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $97
    • RioCan REIT (REI-U CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$20.50
    • Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $19
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $55
    • Seagate (STX) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $170
    • Skyworks (SWKS) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $70
    • Synopsys (SNPS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $620
    • Teradyne (TER) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $80
    • Terns (TERN) Reinstated Early Stage at Goldman
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $255
    • TG Therapeutics (TGTX) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $37
    • Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $8
    • TransUnion (TRU) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $115
    • Western Digital (WDC) Rated New Neutral at Goldman

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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