Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 21, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET Leading Index

Highlights and News:  

  • EU Is Exploring Wider Set Of Possible Counter-Measures Against US Tariffs
  • EU still prioritizing a negotiated solution with US over tariffs – Diplomats
  • TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO VISIT FED THIS WEEK: SEMAFOR
  • BESSENT: DOESN’T HAVE TO GET UGLY WITH THE EUROPEANS
  • BESSENT: TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA ARE IN A ‘GOOD PLACE’
  • Microsoft alerts businesses, governments to server software attack
  • Iran will hold talks with the UK, France and Germany on Friday about its nuclear program

 

Global stocks edge higher as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s remarks on Sunday offered some optimism as he expressed confidence in securing a trade deal with
the EU. Still, there are growing concerns about whether America’s trading partners will be able to reach a deal before the latest tariffs deadline on Aug. 1. Elsewhere, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba said he intended to stay on despite his ruling coalition
suffering a historic setback in an upper house election. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the chamber, as the bloc failed to win the 50 seats it needed to maintain control. Ishiba’s vow to carry on as leader offered hope for continuity
on fiscal spending plans and suggested the nation’s efforts to win a trade deal with the US will also stay on track.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are higher ahead of a busy earnings week that will include results from Tesla and Alphabet on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley strategists recommended investors stay bullish
on US stocks, adding valuations can remain supported around current levels (~22x) over the next 12 months.  Recent dollar weakness should provide a small tailwind to S&P 500 earnings, partially offsetting the tariff earnings pressure, Goldman Sachs strategists
said. Block shares jumped in premarket trading as Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm is set to join the S&P 500 index. The week is light on the economic data front, with only notable indicators being weekly jobless claims figures and the July business activity report
on Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday will be closely watched for clues on the central bank’s future monetary policy stance. Microsoft’s SharePoint server software was breached by hackers. A security patch has been released, but more than
10,000 companies, mostly in the US, are at risk.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) gains 6% as Jefferies turns bullish on the company. Block (XYZ) jumps 9% as Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm
is set to join the S&P 500 index. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) climbs 6% after posting second-quarter comparable sales growth that topped Wall Street expectations. Dynamix Corp. (DYNXU) climbs 62% after the blank check company announced that it was combining with
the Ether Reserve LLC to create an Ether treasury company. Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) rises 2% after TD Cowen analysts raised the recommendation on the investment management company to buy from hold. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) drops 11% after the drugmaker refused
to pause all shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) climbs 4% after the company posted second-quarter revenue that surpassed analysts’ estimates and raised its profit
outlook. Pinterest (PINS) gained 5% and Etsy rose 3% as Morgan Stanley upgrades the social media stocks citing improving macroeconomic trends.

European gauges erase early marginal gains as the EU is exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable
trade agreement fade, according to EU diplomats. The Stoxx 600 is slightly lower, as aero & defense and banks weigh. The mining sector is the best-performing subgroup as iron ore and steel prices climbed on the back of China’s plan for a mega dam in Tibet.
Stellantis NV slid as much as 3.8% after reporting a loss in the first half as restructuring expenses, slowing sales and US tariffs hit the struggling automaker.  Ryanair shares jump as much as 9.9%, reaching a record high after the budget airline delivered
a strong beat in the first quarter. Galp Energia rises as much as 3.7% after the oil and gas firm delivered a healthy earnings beat and lifted its outlook for the full year. Oxford Nanopore surged as much as 20% after the British DNA-sequencing firm said it
expects to report 1H revenue up 28% from a year earlier. Belimo jumps as much as 9.5%, to a record, after the Swiss manufacturer of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment reported sales that beat estimates, boosted by high demand from data centers.
Saab falls as much as 7.3%, slipping from a record close, as Danske Bank downgrades its rating on the defense technology firm to sell. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.15%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Basic Resources +2.6%, Travel & Leisure +1.2%, Real Estate +1.1%
Luxury -1.2%, Aero & Defense –1%, Personal Goods -0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with Japan stock futures overcoming initial decline to trade steady, with onshore markets closed for Marine Day holiday. The fringe far-right
Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan’s upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending. PM Ishiba said that he intended to remain in the role in spite of the loss, which would make him
the first Liberal Democratic Party leader since 1955 to govern the country without a majority in at least one of the legislative bodies. New Zealand inflation accelerated less than economists forecast in the second quarter, with the Consumers Price Index climbing
2.7% from a year earlier. China boosted shipments of rare earth magnets in June, including to the US, after a global supply squeeze. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1%, erasing early losses. Alibaba, HDFC Bank and Samsung Electronics lifted the index,
while Taiwan Semiconductor, Reliance Industries and Commonwealth Bank of Australia were key decliners. Chinese cement stocks gain as Morgan Stanley cites benefits from the nation’s 1.2t yuan planned investment in hydro project in Tibet. New Zealand +1.3%,
Philippines +0.8%, Kospi +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.7%, Sensex +0.5%, Singapore +0.4%, Thailand +0.1%. Taiwan -0.2%, Vietnam -0.8%, ASX 200 -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries extended their advance to a fourth day, sending the 10-year yield down around four basis points to 4.37%.  US yields are lower by 2bp-6bp across tenors
with 2- to 10-year at lowest levels in more than a week. 2s10s and 5s30s curve flattens ~2.5bps. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $21 billion 10-year TIPS new issue Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold rises on a weaker dollar and as traders assessed differing views from US Federal Reserve officials on how President Trump’s tariff agenda will impact inflation.
Spot gold trades near $3,378 an ounce after Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut last week and Governor Michelle Bowman also expressed an openness to a reduction. Investors will be watching for progress on talks with a raft of trade partners
ahead of Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline for tariffs. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +1%, Copper futures +0.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices dipped slightly, with the latest European sanctions on Russian oil expected to have minimal impact on supplies while US tariffs ensure demand concerns
remain. Westpac says the EU ban on petroleum products made from Russian oil is making fuel supplies tighter in Western countries. US oil exports to China fell to just 100,000 barrels per day in the second quarter as trade disputes hurt sentiment, Jeffries
said. Iran, another sanctioned oil producer, is due to hold nuclear talks with Britain, France and Germany in Istanbul on Friday. That follows warnings by the three European countries that a failure to resume negotiations would lead to international sanctions
being reimposed on Iran. WTI -0.2%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas -4.2%, RBOB -0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is broadly lower, and yen strengthened after Japan’s ruling coalition loses its majority in the upper house election. Japan’s Prime
Minister vowed to stay in power even after the election defeat. Kiwi is little changed after New Zealand second quarter inflation rose less than forecast. The data raised chance of an August RBNZ cut. US$ Index -0.45%, GBPUSD +0.5%, EURUSD +0.4%, USDJPY -0.95%,
AUDUSD +0.25%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK -0.6%, USDNOK -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.2%, Ethereum +1.8%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Analog Devices (ADI) Raised to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
    • Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $6
    • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
    • CSX (CSX) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $45
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
    • Etsy (ETSY) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $50
    • Fortis (FTS CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$70
    • Globant (GLOB) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $115
    • Invesco (IVZ) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $25
    • Keysight (KEYS) Raised to Neutral at BofA
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $323
    • Pinterest (PINS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $45
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
  • Downgrades
    • American Express (AXP) Cut to Sell at DZ Bank
    • Arizona Metals (AMC CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$2
    • Centene (CNC) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $33
    • Choice Properties REIT (CHP-U CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$16
    • Clearway Energy (CWEN/A) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT $35
    • Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $51.25
    • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $3.50
    • Royal Caribbean (RCL) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $337
    • Sandstorm Gold (SSL CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$13.25
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $14
      • Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
      • Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT $9
      • Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $15
    • Target (TGT) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
    • Telus Digital Experience (TIXT CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Ternium (TX) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $34
  • Initiations
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $80
    • Albertsons Cos (ACI) Rated New Underweight at Barclays
    • Alnylam (ALNY) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $385
    • Argan (AGX) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $220
    • Autodesk (ADSK) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital; PT $320
    • AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $22
    • BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity
    • Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $66
    • Celestica (CLS CN) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT C$236.09
    • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
    • Colliers International (CIGI CN) Reinstated Market Perform at Citizens
    • Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Disc Medicine Inc (IRON) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $86
    • Emerita Resources (EMO CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
    • General Motors (GM) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $65
    • Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $48
    • Jefferson Capital (JCAP) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $19
      • Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $24
      • Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $22
      • Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
      • Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $29
    • John Marshall Bank (JMSB) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $22
    • Jones Lang (JLL) Reinstated Market Perform at Citizens
    • Kroger (KR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Marcus & Millichap (MMI) Reinstated Market Perform at Citizens
    • Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $163
    • Newmark (NMRK) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $17
    • Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $56
    • Park National (PRK) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Petrobras (PETR4 BZ) ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $16
    • QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $33
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $53
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $367.30
    • SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $30
    • So-Young (SY) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $10.10
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $31
    • Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $64

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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