Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Employment Report, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate; 9:10ET
Fed’s Hammack speaks; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, ISM Employment, Construction Spending, U. of Mich. Sentiment; 10:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Fresh Trump Tariffs Announced for 70 Trading Partners
• Trump hikes tariffs on Canada to 35%, announces rates from 10% to 40% for dozens of countries
• INDIA OFFICIAL: OVER HALF OF EXPORTS TO US WON’T BE IMPACTED
• China accused the US of exploiting a flaw in Microsoft’s email servers to steal military data
• PUTIN: TALKS WITH UKRAINE WERE GENERALLY POSITIVE
• ZELENSKIY REITERATES HE IS READY TO MEET PUTIN FOR TALKS

Global stocks are broadly lower after the US slapped dozens of trading partners with steep tariffs, while investors anxiously awaited US jobs data that could make
or break the case for a Fed rate cut next month. The tariffs run from 10% to 41% and mark the highest rates since World War II, increasing the average US duty to 15.2% from 2.3% in 2024. Goods determined to be transshipped to evade higher rates would be subject
to additional levies. Some economies, including China, Canada and Mexico, are on different trade tracks and covered under different orders. Global stock funds attracted weekly inflows of $19.6 billion, while $19.2 billion went into bonds funds, according to
BofA. Global equities are annualizing inflows of $640b, the third highest on record. European funds saw their largest weekly outflows since at least 2018. China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in July, with the S&P Global manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index falling to 49.5 from 50.4 in June. After strong economic growth in the first half of 2025, China’s momentum may slow as exporters’ tariff front-running diminishes.

EQUITIES:   

 US equity futures fell after Trump unveiled new tariffs that will boost the average US rate on goods from across the world to 15.2%. The new tariffs will take effect after midnight on
Aug. 7. He also increased duties on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement but gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve to negotiate a broader trade deal. The new tariff rate on Canada is under a different
order focused on illicit drugs and will take effect today, as originally planned. Trump said he’d be open to further discussions with Canada. For other nations, the order allows for an additional delay, with lower, previous rates applied to goods that are
loaded onto ships before Aug. 7 that then enter the United States before Oct. 5. Trump is expected to unveil separate tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals and other key industrial products in the coming weeks. Today’s July
jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed during the month while the unemployment rate moved higher. Trump is asking bank CEOs to pitch ideas for taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public, potentially leading to one of the biggest stock offerings ever.
Amazon.com slumped as much as 8% in premarket trading as its underwhelming earnings introduced a note of caution amid a generally upbeat reporting season for tech megacaps.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.1%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -0.8%.

In pre-market trading, Amazon.com (AMZN) slides 7% after projecting weaker-than-expected operating income and trailing the sales growth of its cloud rivals. Apple (AAPL)
rises 1.8% after the company reported its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than three years. Avantor (AVTR) slumps 10% after the maker of laboratory supplies reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed. CCC Intelligent Solutions
(CCCS) climbs 15% after the software company reported revenue for the second quarter that exceeded estimates. Coinbase (COIN) falls 11% after the largest US crypto exchange reported revenue for the second quarter that missed. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) ticks up
as much as 2.5% after the Washington Post reported that the US government plans to experiment with covering weight-loss drugs for federal health programs. First Solar (FSLR) advances 2% after the renewable energy firm boosted its net sales forecast. Fluor
(FLR) tumbles 17% after the engineering and contracting firm cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) rises 3% after raising its full-year guidance after reporting the strongest volume growth in five years.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN) falls 5% after the telecommunications firm posted 2Q revenue came in just shy of estimates. Moderna (MRNA) falls 5% after the struggling biotech company narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year. Reddit (RDDT) rises 16% after
the social-networking company forecast revenue for the third quarter that beat.

European gauges are sharply lower on renewed trade jitters. The Euro Stoxx 600 falls over 1% to around a one-month low, with industrial goods, technology and travel
sectors leading declines. Drugmakers were among the biggest laggards as Trump also demanded drug companies to lower prices. Novo Nordisk loses its spot among Europe’s 10 most valuable companies after nearly a weeklong slump. UMG shares fall as much as 8.9%
after the music label reported Ebitda margin that expanded more slowly than expected during 2Q, with its merchandising unit being hit by higher tariffs and freight costs. Daimler Truck falls ~6% after the truck-maker lowered its outlook. Cancom shares drop
as much as 21%, before paring losses, after the IT services provider cut its outlook for the full year. Drink maker Campari is among the biggest gainers after strong earnings. Melrose Industries gained as much as 7.9% after the aerospace company reported earnings
ahead of expectations. Stoxx 600 -1.3%, DAX -1.9%, CAC -2.1%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Industrial Goods -2.2%, Technology -2.1%, Banks -1.8%. Telecom outperforms and is roughly flat.

Shares in Asia recorded their biggest weekly decline since April as tariffs damped the outlook for the export-dependent region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped
1%, with South Korean equities leading declines after authorities unveiled plans to raise taxes on corporations and investors. Tech shares weighed as Tokyo Electron dropped the most in nearly a year following a move by the chip tool maker to lower its full-year
earnings outlook. Shares in Taiwan fell after the nation’s products attracted a higher-than-expected 20% tax. Taipei called the duty “temporary,” expecting cuts after trade talks. In contrast, stocks in Malaysia rallied over 1% as the nation’s 19% duty matched
rates imposed on neighbors including Indonesia and the Philippines. Asia’s factory activity deteriorated in July as soft global demand and lingering uncertainty over tariffs weighed on business morale, private sector surveys showed. The surveys were taken
before Japan and South Korea clinched trade deals. Kospi -3.9%, Thailand -1.9%, Hang Seng Index -1.1%, ASX 200 -0.9%, Sensex -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -0.7%, Singapore -0.5%, Vietnam -0.5%, Taiwan -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.5%. Philippines +0.8%, Indonesia +0.7%, Topix +0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper ahead of the US jobs report, with long-end yields higher by around 3bp. US front-end yields are little changed, belly
to long end cheaper by 1bp-3bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 2bp. For July jobs report, economists’ median estimated nonfarm payrolls change is 104k vs June’s 147k increase. Treasury new-issue auctions next week 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year
bonds on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman expressed concerns that policymakers’ hesitance to lower interest rates could risk unnecessary damage to the labor market.

METALS: 

Gold edged higher but is set for a third consecutive weekly loss pressured by a stronger dollar and diminished expectations for US rate cuts, while uncertainty from
tariffs offered support. Copper edged higher on the London Metal Exchange but was down 1.4% for the week. Copper traders are rushing to book storage space, betting on a wave of supplies into LME warehouses. In the US, where traders had been moving large volumes
of copper to in anticipation of the tariffs, copper has plunged by more than 20% this week. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver -0.8%, Copper futures +0.6%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices retreat as Trump’s tariff deadline intensified investor anxiety over unresolved trade negotiations, with uncertainty surrounding nations yet to secure
American trade agreements. Trump said special envoy Steve Witkoff will head to Russia ahead of a new deadline for Moscow to halt its fight with Ukraine. Russian crude flows to India may be at risk because of US and EU sanctions, but the rest of OPEC+ should
be able to boost supply to cover the shortfall, Rystad Energy said. Chevron’s earnings beat and it raised its cash-flow outlook on record output, but it warned that oil prices are in danger of falling in coming months. Exxon also came in ahead of expectations
on robust production. WTI -0.8%, Brent -0.8%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB -1.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the Korean won led declines in currency markets, with Swiss franc among the weakest G-10 currencies after Switzerland was hit with a 39% levy
by Trump. The yen outperforms after some modest jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister. Aussie dollar steadies as Australia avoids steeper tariffs set for most global peers. The US$ is set for its best week in three years ahead of payroll data. The Canadian
dollar held steady in the face of higher rates. Japan’s finance minister said he’s worried by movements in the yen, which weakened to levels last seen in March. New Zealand dollar underperformed as the country also saw increased tariff rates.  US$ Index +0.15%,
GBPUSD %-0.35, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.5%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.25%.

Bitcoin -1%, Ethereum -2.5%.  Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor is preparing to sell $4.2 billion more in preferred stock to fuel his latest Bitcoin bet.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Appfolio (APPF) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $350
• Canada Goose (GOOS CN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$20
• Citizens Financial (CFG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $52
• Cognex (CGNX) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $50
• DoubleVerify (DV) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $19
• Fortune Brands (FBIN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $65
• Independence Realty (IRT) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $24
• Itron (ITRI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $145
• Methanex (MX CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$69.26
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $77
• MP Materials (MP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
• NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $5.50
• Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $190
• Thor Industries (THO) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Upland Software (UPLD) Raised to Buy at Craig-Hallum; PT $3.50
• XPO Inc. (XPO) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $140
• Downgrades
• Albany International (AIN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $55
• Amazon (AMZN) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $223.81
• Cut to Hold at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $252
• Avis Budget (CAR) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $105
• Baxter (BAX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
• Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Hold at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $37.60
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $130
• Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $129
• Canadian Apartment (CAR-U CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$48
• Chubb (CB) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $300
• Couchbase (BASE) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $460
• Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $425
• Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• JD.com (JD) ADRs Cut to Sell at Arete; PT $30
• Killam Apartment REIT (KMP-U CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$20
• Murphy USA (MUSA) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $350
• NetEase (NTES) ADRs Cut to Sell at Arete; PT $114
• Procore Technologies (PCOR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Trane Technologies (TT) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
• Zynex (ZYXI) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Initiations
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Capital One (COF) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $290
• DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR NA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $14.40
• Glencore (GLEN LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $10.50
• Incyte (INCY) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $90
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Turning Point Brands (TPB) Rated New Hold at Needham
• USA Rare Earth (IPXXU) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $16

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke