Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 4, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump to Name New Fed Governor, Jobs Data Head in Coming Days
  • Officials from Canada and Mexico will hold trade meetings this week
  • Greer Says US-China Talks ‘About Halfway There’ on Rare Earths
  • PUTIN’S MEETING WITH WITKOFF THIS WEEK POSSIBLE: IFX
  • SWISS GOVT: DETERMINED TO MAKE MORE ATTRACTIVE OFFER TO US
  • Tesla Approves 96M Stock Award for Elon Musk
  • Boeing workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories went on strike
  • 6 yr old boy covered in bruises after giant Octopus grabs him at Texas aquarium

 

Global stocks are higher to start the week, boosted by the prospect of lower interest rates after a weak US jobs report prompted a dramatic re-assessment of the rate
outlook.  US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressed cautious optimism about talks with China on rare earth supplies, after trade discussions that further stabilized relations between the two economies. The US is “about halfway” toward restoring flows
of rare earth magnets from China, Greer said. A US and Canada deal is also possible, with Trump and PM Mark Carney expected to speak soon. Trump said special envoy Steve Witkoff might go to Russia this week, and the Kremlin said a meeting with Vladimir Putin
is possible. It’s a quiet week for economic data ahead of the Bank of England meeting Thursday when policymakers are expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures rose, recouping part of last week’s sharp declines, as investors looked to the Federal Reserve for potential interest rate cuts after disappointing US jobs data on Friday.
Trump said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new jobs data statistician in the coming days. The president said he has a “couple of people in mind” for the role that opened up after Adriana Kugler announced Friday that she would vacate her
board of governors seat, which wasn’t due to expire until January. Her exit provides Trump an earlier-than-expected chance to appoint a governor who supports his preference for lower interest rates. The updated tariffs set to come into full effect this week
range from 10% to 41% on a wide range of trading partners and raise concerns about rising costs. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson says investors should buy into any selloff in US stocks because of the robust earnings outlook for the coming year. Wilson
wrote, “While the Fed remains on hold for now, the combination of a fading inflation impulse later this year plus softness in the labor market should foster a robust cutting cycle.” S&P 500 firms are on track to post a 9.1% jump in profits, far above analysts’
projection of 2.8%, with the share of companies beating estimates the highest in four years, according to data from Bloomberg.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.5%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) climbs 2% after the company approved an interim stock award worth about $30 billion for Elon Musk. Blade Air Mobility Inc.
(BLDE) is up 16% after Bloomberg reported that Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) is exploring an acquisition of the helicopter ride-share operator. Joby shares are up 5%. CommScope (COMM) shares climbed 42% before being halted after reaching a deal to sell its broadband
connectivity arm for about $10.5 billion in cash to Amphenol Corp. as it seeks to cut its debt. Amphenol (APH) gains 4%. Kodiak Gas (KGS) rises 5% after the announcement that the provider of natural gas compression services will join the S&P Small Cap 600
Index. Opendoor (OPEN) climbs 14% as much as 20% after the company regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange. Spotify (SPOT) gains 3% after the audio-streaming company said it will increase the monthly cost of premium subscriptions in some markets. Steelcase
Inc. (SCS) soars 45 % after HNI (HNI) agreed to buy the company. HNI shares are down 20%. Tyson Foods (TSN) rises 4% as management raised its earnings forecast after quarterly profit unexpectedly rose as a boom in US chicken continues to offset losses in the
beef business. Wayfair (W) rises 11% after the e-commerce firm posted second quarter profit that sailed past estimates.

European gauges are higher, with banks leading gains while healthcare underperforms. Shares in UK banks jumped after the Supreme Court on Friday cut their liability
for mis-sold car loans. Close Brothers Group Plc jumped 21% while Lloyds Banking Group Plc climbed 7.8%. Switzerland’s blue-chip SMI index slightly pared losses to around 0.5% as traders had their first opportunity to react to Trump’s 39% export tariff on
the country. The new tariff leaves the European country, one of the US’s biggest trade partners, with one of the steepest levies globally. Stoxx 600 +0.7%, DAX +1.4%, CAC +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.5%. Banks +2.3%, Insurance +1.6%, Travel & Leisure +1%. Healthcare
-0.1%, Retail -0.05%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher with Japanese stocks leading declines while South Korean shares rose after a petition to withdraw planned corporate and capital-gains
tax hikes drew strong support. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2%, erasing an earlier loss. Shares rose in Hong Kong as investors looked beyond the Politburo meeting, seeking fresh catalysts amid ongoing tariff negotiations between US and China. Mainland
investors also poured a record amount of money into exchange-traded funds that track the market in the Asian financial hub. Chinese chip stocks rose after Reuters reported that thousands of license applications by US companies to export goods and technology
are in limbo. Vietnam +2.2%, Singapore +1%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%, Thailand +0.9%, Kospi +0.9%, Philippines +0.7%, Sensex +0.5%, CSI 300 +0.4%, ASX 200 was flat. Taiwan -0.25%, Indonesia -1%, Nikkei 225 -1.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields ease, extending Friday’s historic curve-steepening advance spurred by weak jobs data that improved the outlook for Fed rate cuts. US 10-year yields
slip 1.5bps to 4.21% with the curve steady ahead of this week’s new-issue auctions of 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. Treasury new-issue auctions this week begin Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $42 billion 10-year notes and $25 billion
30-year bonds Wednesday and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold is slightly higher around $3,370 an ounce, after climbing more than 2% on Friday following the release of revised employment data. Stagflation risks and prospects
of further rate cuts are keeping sellers cautious. Citigroup turned from bearish to bullish on its gold forecast, with analysts now predicting bullion will rally to a record high in the near term due to a worsening US economy and inflation-boosting tariffs.
Spot gold +0.15%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures +0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices dropped after OPEC+ agreed to another large output hike in September, though traders remained cautious due to potential further sanctions on Russia. OPEC+,
agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share. Goldman expects the group will hold output levels steady for some time. Asia’s oil imports were about
25.0 million bpd in July, down from 27.88 million bpd in June and the lowest monthly total since July last year. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees a peace deal. Trump’s threat
of sanctions came with a 50-day grace period. However, government sources told Reuters on Saturday that India will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite Trump’s threats.  WTI -2%, Brent -2%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -1.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, dollar was mixed against its major trading partners, up versus the euro and yen, down versus the pound and Canadian dollar, ahead of a relatively
light data week. The Swiss franc fell, as markets reopened in Zurich after a public holiday on Friday, when Trump announced a 39% tariff on Swiss imports. Swiss inflation unexpectedly accelerated, with consumer prices rising 0.2% from a year ago in July. Currencies
in developing economies started the week stronger as growing expectations of rate cuts in the US provided support for emerging markets. The greenback’s rebound in July is forcing some investors to rethink their “sell the dollar” trade. T. Rowe Price now favors
dollar-denominated EM bonds, while Barclays advises against shorting the US currency versus Asian peers. Goldman Sachs expects the South Korean won and Taiwanese dollar to outperform other Asia ex-Japan currencies, while predicting central banks across the
region will become more accommodative. US$ Index -0.35%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD +0.15%, NZDUSD +0.02%, USDCHF +0.5%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin is flat, Ethereum +1.7%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Affiliated Managers (AMG) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $255
    • Alamo Group (ALG) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $260
    • Alnylam (ALNY) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $490
      • Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $44
    • Federated Hermes (FHI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $54
    • Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $9
    • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $138
    • MasTec (MTZ) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $201
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Raised to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$147
    • Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Neutral at Phillip Secs; PT $600
    • Zevia (ZVIA) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $5
  • Downgrades
    • Allogene (ALLO) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $200
    • Baxter (BAX) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $25
    • Chart Industries (GTLS) Cut to Neutral at BTIG; PT $210
    • Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Sell at Compass Point; PT $248
    • CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $448
    • Disney (DIS) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $128
    • EPR Properties (EPR) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $58
    • Essex Property (ESS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $275
    • New Oriental Education (EDU) ADRs Cut to Hold at ABC International
    • Performant Healthcare (PHLT) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $7.75
    • Quanta Services (PWR) Cut to Hold at Daiwa; PT $420
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Cut to Neutral at Sealand Securities
    • Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $78.30
    • Vera Therapeutics (VERA) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
  • Initiations
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $325
    • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $76
    • ASE Technology (3711 TT) ADRs Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
    • Booz Allen (BAH) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $118.80
    • Chevron (CVX) Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $174
    • Cresud (CRES AR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $14.40
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $133.20
    • FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • Philip Morris (PM) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $188
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $20
    • Richemont (CFR SW) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $22
    • Seagate (STX) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $172.90
    • TFI International (TFII CN) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $19
    • WeRide (WRD) ADRs Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $12

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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