Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:20ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 9:30 p.m.: China July PPI, CPI

Highlights and News:  

• Israel says it plans to take over Gaza City
  
• US Sparks Fresh Turmoil in Gold With Shock Import Tariff; Gold Futures Jump to Record
• Xi and Putin Speak Over the Phone, CCTV Reports
• Trump moved to increase the presence of federal police around Washington DC
• Altman Reports “Positive Progress” in OpenAI Negotiations With Microsoft

Global stocks nudge higher, trading near record highs, after Trump’s temporary pick for a Federal Reserve governor fueled expectations of a more dovish US central
bank board. Tokyo’s trade negotiator said the US will amend a presidential executive order to remove overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods, terming it as oversight. Investors are pulling money from US equities and flocking into cash funds, Bank of America’s
Michael Hartnett said, amid renewed concerns that sweeping tariffs are crimping economic growth. Hartnett said global stocks had outflows of $41.7 billion in the week through Aug. 6, which was driven by “abnormal liquidation outflows” from three UK-domiciled
funds on July 31. India suspended plans to purchase arms from the United States due to increased tariffs imposed by Trump. Israel’s security cabinet approved an operation to take control of Gaza City. The decision aims to “defeat Hamas”, with Israel setting
conditions for ending the war, including the disarming of Hamas and the return of hostages.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are higher at the end of a week in which markets were buffeted by tariffs, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings. Intel Corp. advanced in premarket trading
as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan said he’s got the backing of the company’s board, following Trump’s call for his resignation. Tesla slipped after disbanding its Dojo team, upending its effort to build a supercomputer for driverless-vehicle technology.
BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett note Magnificent 7 + Broadcom + Oracle + Palantir made 80% of S&P 500 return since Liberation Day, because of US stock concentration but also reinforced by pro-monopoly American First policy and AI.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Block (XYZ) advances 8% after the company raised its full-year profit guidance after second-quarter earnings came in well ahead of expectations,
fueled by strength in its Cash App lending business. Energy Vault (NRGV) falls 15% after the energy storage firm narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year. Expedia (EXPE) jumps 16% after the online travel agency reported second-quarter results that beat
expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Figs (FIGS) rises 7% after the medical-scrubs seller reported second-quarter adjusted Ebitda that beat estimates. Gilead (GILD) gains 5% after the drugmaker boosted its adjusted profit guidance for the full year,
following better-than-expected results for the second quarter. Goodyear (GT) slumps 6.9% after the tire company reported a second-quarter loss, while analysts expected a profit of 19 cents. Instacart (CART) is up 14% after the online grocery delivery company
provided a forecast for 3Q adj. Ebitda that beat estimates and reported 2Q order growth that topped forecasts. Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) plunges 28% after the biotech firm reported revenue for the second quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.
JFrog (FROG) soars 17% after the software company beat expectations for the second quarter and raised its guidance. LegalZoom (LZ) surges 22% after the company forecast third-quarter revenue that beat estimates as AI partnerships and subscription growth are
expected to boost revenue. Microchip Technology (MCHP) falls 6% after the semiconductor-device company reported its first-quarter results and gave a forecast. Ouster (OUST) jumps 20% after the sensor maker reported second-quarter revenue ahead of estimates.
Soundhound (SOUN) rallies 21% after the US software company reported revenue for the second quarter that beat and raised its full year outlook. Sweetgreen (SG) sinks 28% after the salad chain slashed its sales guidance and missed second-quarter estimates.
Trade Desk (TTD) falls 30% after the advertising-technology company reported second-quarter results and gave an outlook some analysts deemed to be underwhelming. Twilio (TWLO) drops 13% after the company’s results included a third-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share
view that trailed analysts’ estimates. Under Armour (UAA) slumps 13% after the sportswear company forecast worse-than-expected sales for the current quarter. Viavi Solutions (VIAV) soars 23% after the communications-equipment company reported first-quarter
results that beat

European gauges are steady in choppy trade, with banks and miners leading gains, while insurance and media stocks the biggest drags. With 98% of MSCI Europe’s market
capitalization having reported, second-quarter earnings have risen 1.6%, handily beating expectations of a 4.8% decline. The Stoxx 600 is on track for its best week since May amid optimism that company earnings are weathering US tariffs and on hopes for a
potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Basic resources stocks were the biggest advancers, with precious metals miner Fresnillo Plc leading the gains amid a surge in gold futures. Insurance shares were the worst laggards, with Munich Re dropping as much as 8.6% after
reducing its insurance revenue guidance. Novo Nordisk advances 5% after Intron Health upgraded its rating to hold from a sell.  Unipol shares fell as much as 3.8% in Milan after the insurance company reported 1H results. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.1%,
FTSE 100 -0.05%. Banks +1.3%, Basic Resources +0.9%, Autos +0.7%. Insurance -1.5%, Media -1.3%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eking out a 0.1% gain. Japanese stocks lead Asian equity winners after top trade negotiator Akazawa says
that US will end tariff stacking and cut auto levies as promised. The climb in Japan helped offset declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, India and Singapore. Samsung extended gains to a second day after Trump excluded companies building in the US from a 100%
tariff on semiconductors. SoftBank shares surge to a record on strong earnings. Hang Seng slips as Chinese tech shares retreat. Key points to watch next week include monetary policy decisions in Australia and Thailand, while Tencent and Commonwealth Bank of
Australia report earnings. Nikkei 225 +1.8%, Indonesia +0.6%, Vietnam +0.2%, Taiwan +0.1%. CSI 300 -0.25%, ASX 200 -0.3%, Philippines -0.4%, Singapore -0.4%, Kospi -0.5%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Sensex -0.9%, Hang Seng Tech Index -1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries slightly cheaper across the curve, following deeper losses in most European bond markets. US yields are about 1bp cheaper across tenors with the 10-year
around 4.26%.  Treasury curve spreads are mixed, with 2s10s ~flat and 5s30s +2bps. Money market funds had their largest inflows since January, while investment grade and high yield bond funds drew the most since June 2020, Bank of America says. This week’s
trio of soft auctions highlighted bond investors’ caution, especially on longer-dated securities. Thursday’s $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds tailed by the most in a year. The US Treasury curve could steepen if President Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miran
to the Federal Reserve is confirmed, according to strategists at JPMorgan.

METALS: 

A US move to put tariffs on imports of gold bars is unleashing fresh turmoil in the bullion market, with prices spiking in New York as dealers brace for a major reordering
of global trade flows. Gold futures surged to a record high on reports of duties on US imports of bullion bars, most of which come from Switzerland. US Customs and Border Protection clarified that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to reciprocal
tariffs enacted by President Trump and are not exempted as the industry had initially understood. Traders and analysts are scrambling to understand the full scope and consequences of the ruling, with some questioning whether the dramatic change could be an
error on the CBP’s part. If prices in London and New York move out of lockstep, Swiss refiners can melt down the larger bars that are traded in the UK capital so they can be delivered against US futures contracts, and vice versa. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver +0.2%,
Copper futures +0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil steadied after a run of declines, as traders await Trump’s next moves to halt the war in Ukraine. Trump — who’d set a deadline of today for Moscow to agree to
a truce — said that he’d be willing to meet with Putin, even if the Russian leader hasn’t yet agreed to sit down with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Washington’s efforts to choke Russian oil flows to India are raising the question of what will happen to the
millions of barrels a day that would otherwise have been headed there. India’s state-owned refiners appear to be pulling back from spot purchases in the absence of official guidance from New Delhi. That potentially leaves the 1.7 million barrels a day Russia
sent to India looking for a new home. China, the most likely destination for the excess oil, doesn’t recognize unilateral sanctions, and takes both Russian and Iranian crude.  Earlier, Scott Bessent reiterated the US may impose tariffs on China for buying
Russian oil. Petrobras’ results were weaker than expected and it cut its dividend after lower oil prices offset stronger production figures. WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -1.1%, RBOB +0.4%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US$ Index edged lower as investors await a raft of US data next week, including consumer price inflation, that may help shape the outlook
for monetary policy. The yen fell as Japan inflation-adjusted household spending rose a less-than-expected 1.3% in June from a year earlier. Nominal wages also missed, rising 2.5%. The US confirmed it would end stacking of universal tariffs on Japan and cut
car levies as promised, Tokyo’s top trade negotiator said after a meeting on Thursday with his counterparts in Washington. The onshore yuan held steady after the PBOC set a weaker currency fixing. The PBOC will continue to use various monetary policy tools,
such as reverse repos, outright reverse repos and the MLF, to maintain liquidity and further implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing analysts.  US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.5%,
AUDUSD ~flat, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.4%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.3%, Ethereum +1.1%.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• America Movil (AMXB MM) ADRs Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $21
• Construction Partners (ROAD) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $122
• Curaleaf (CURA CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Cormark Securities
• Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $17.50
• Diageo (DGE LN) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $107
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $121
• Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $85
• GoDaddy (GDDY) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $182
• Holley (HLLY) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $4
• Instacart (CART) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $67
• Monster Beverage (MNST) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $74
• Novartis (NOVN SW) ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $123
• Owens & Minor (OMI) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $10
• Peloton (PTON) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $11.50
• US Foods Holding (USFD) Raised to Hold at CFRA; PT $89
• Viavi (VIAV) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $15
• Downgrades
• Apple (AAPL) Cut to Hold at First Shanghai; PT $240
• Atmos Energy (ATO) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $163
• Avita Medical (RCEL) Cut to Sell at BTIG; PT $3
• Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$175
• Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$184
• Centerra Gold (CG CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$10
• Cogent Comms (CCOI) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $40
• Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Hold at First Shanghai; PT $320
• Coincheck Group (CNCK) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $6
• Crocs (CROX) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $85
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $81
• Flutter (FLUT) Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT $299.71
• Haemonetics (HAE) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $62
• Health Catalyst (HCAT) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $4
• Honda (7267 JP) ADRs Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Installed Building (IBP) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $255
• Primo Brands (PRMB) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $26
• Robinhood (HOOD) Cut to Hold at First Shanghai; PT $110
• Roche (ROG SW) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $39
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $345
• Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• Televisa (TLEVICPO MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $2.60
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $68
• Vtex (VTEX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $6
• Cut to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $6
• Initiations
• AppLovin (APP) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Bowhead Specialty (BOW) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $39
• Bunge Global (BG) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $91.60
• Entegris (ENTG) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $99
• James Hardie (JHX AU) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $34
• National Fuel Gas (NFG) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $92.60
• Penske Automotive (PAG) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Rheinmetall (RHM GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $532
• Tesla (TSLA) Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $410

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke