Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Hourly Earnings, CPI; 2:00ET Federal Budget Balance

Highlights and News:  

• Nvidia, AMD have agreed to pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the US – FT
• Zelenskiy: There Is Need To Step Up Pressure On Russia As It Shows No Interest In Ending War
• Trump: Washington DC will be liberated today
• Colombia Presidential Candidate Miguel Uribe Has Died
  

Global stocks relinquished gains to trade flat as investors tempered hopes that a meeting between President Trump and Russia’s Putin would advance a resolution to
the Ukraine conflict. Trade and geopolitics loom large this week. A US tariff deadline on China, due to expire on Tuesday, is expected to be extended again, while Trump and Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the Ukraine war. Ukrainian
President Zelenskiy won diplomatic backing from Europe and the NATO alliance, where Kyiv fears Putin and Trump may try to dictate terms for ending the 3-1/2-year war. Trump said a potential deal would involve “some swapping of territories to the betterment
of both sides.” Zelenskiy continues to reject ceding land. Analysts are unsure what to make of reports that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of their revenues from chip sales in China, under an arrangement to obtain export licenses
for their semiconductors. Markets also await clarity on the sector tariffs Trump has announced.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are little changed as investors geared up for a busy week, while major chip companies seemed caught in the middle of the latest twist in trade policy ahead of a key
tariff deadline with China. Nvidia dropped 1% in premarket trading and Advanced Micro Devices lost 2%. In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chips, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according
to the FT. Focus of the week is on a crucial consumer price index report tomorrow that will likely set the course of the dollar and bonds. The inflation data comes ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming on Aug. 21-23, which will likely set the
tone for the September meeting. The impact of President Trump’s tariffs on consumer prices is just getting started, according to research by Goldman Sachs Group. US companies have so far taken the bulk of the hit from Trump’s tariffs, but the burden will increasingly
be passed on to consumers as companies hike prices, Goldman economists said.      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rally as Bitcoin extended gains to rise to within striking distance of an all-time high. Coinbase (COIN) +3%, MARA
Holdings (MARA) +3%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3%. Lithium stocks rally after operations were halted at a major Chinese mine, spurring speculation that Beijing might move to suspend other projects to tackle overcapacity. Albemarle (ALB) +12%, SQM ADRs (SQM) +7.7%,
Lithium Americas (LAC) +9%. Biotech stocks fall after news that ousted US Food and Drug Administration vaccine regulator Vinay Prasad is set to return to the agency. Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) -11%, Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) -4% and Replimune (REPL) -6%.
Aaon (AAON) drops 18% after the air-conditioning equipment firm reported earnings per share for the second quarter that missed. Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) rises 4% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform. Barrick Mining (B) falls 3% after the miner
reported second-quarter gold production and sales volumes that missed. Monday.com (MNDY) tumbles 18% after the software company reported its second-quarter results. Rumble (RUM) jumps 15% as the online video network platform announces its intent to buy AI
firm Northern Data. Meanwhile, shares in Northern Data AG sink as much as 29%. Sapiens (SPNS) rises 20% after Calcalist reported that Formula Systems is in advanced talks to sell control of the software company at a valuation of about $2 billion.

European gauges are mixed to lower after giving up small early gains. Hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal weighed on German defense companies. The Stoxx 600 is flat
as gains in health care and telecom are offset by losses in aero & defense and industrial goods. Shares in Danish Orsted A/S plunged 28% after the Danish wind farm developer unveiled a $9.4 billion rights issue, citing adverse developments in the US offshore
wind market. Northern Data shares fell as much as 29% before paring losses after US firm Rumble announced plans to buy the company. Novartis shares rise `3% after the Swiss drugmaker said late-stage clinical trials for its experimental medicine ianalumab met
the primary endpoint in patients with Sjögren’s disease. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX -0.05%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Utilities -0.8%, Aero & Defense -0.75%, Chemicals -0.6%, Industrial Goods -0.6%. Telecom +0.6%, Healthcare +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were higher amid expectations geopolitical tensions may relax, ahead of a meeting between US and Russian leaders later in the week. Chinese blue chips
gained after data showed consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but producer prices kept falling as the country’s manufacturing sector exported deflation to the rest of the world. Lithium stocks jumped after a suspension at Contemporary Amperex Technology
Co.’s mine eased oversupply concerns. Heavyweight technology firms including Tencent and Alibaba are due to report earnings this week, while China is expected to release data on home prices. Beijing local property developers’ stocks rose after the city lifts
some home-purchase limits. Vietnam stocks advanced to hit record high. Markets were closed in Japan and Thailand for a holiday. CSI 1000 +1.5%, Indonesia +1%, Sensex +0.9%, Vietnam +0.75%, Taiwan +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%.
Singapore -0.2%, Philippines -1.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are marginally higher, supported by wider gains in gilts stoked by UK wage-growth data. Monday’s US session has no calendar events, but weekly slate includes
July CPI and PPI reports that could influence pricing for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later this year. US yields are 1bp-2bp richer across tenors with curve spreads little changed; 10-year is near 4.270%. Bond traders are now looking ahead to Tuesday’s
CPI inflation data for clues on how fast the Fed can cut rates. Traders are pricing in a more than 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September. Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far. Syndicate desks expect $40 billion to $45 billion of
high-grade issuance this week, before the typical seasonal lull in the latter half of August.

METALS: 

Spot gold fell more than 1% to ~$3,353 an ounce as traders awaited clarification from the White House over its tariff policy.  Last week saw wild swings in bullion
on reports that the US would slap 39% tariffs on some gold bars. The price differential between trading hubs in the US and London fell below $60 an ounce in reaction to the news, after earlier surging to above $100 in response to the initial levy shock. The
White House said on Sunday it planned to issue an executive order clarifying the country’s stance. Traders will be looking to Tuesday’s US inflation print for clues on how the Federal Reserve will approach interest rates in the months ahead. Spot gold -1.3%,
Silver -1.6%, Copper futures -0.7%.

ENERGY:   

Oil inched up after its biggest weekly drop since end-June, as Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine eases concerns about supplies from top producer Russia. US and
Russian officials are working toward an agreement that would lock in Moscow’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according sources. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from
certain, they said. Brent traded near $67 a barrel, after sliding 4.4% last week. Traders may get further insight into the supply-demand balance later this week, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set to release its monthly market analysis
and the US Energy Information Administration its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB +0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US$ Index edges higher ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for US and China to strike a tariff deal and a key US inflation report that could help
determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month. Fed officials have sounded increasingly uneasy about the labor market, signaling their openness to a cut. Sterling is lower, after earlier hitting a more than two-week high against the
dollar, before job market and growth data later in the week. The Australian dollar slipped ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to back a rate cut of 25 basis points. The offshore yuan fluctuated after weekend
data showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged. India’s central bank sold US dollars across onshore and offshore currency markets to prop up the rupee as it weakened toward a record low, according
to sources. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.25%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.4%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.5%, USDNOK -0.4%.

Bitcoin +2%, Ethereum -0.7%.  Bitcoin approached an all-time high, supported by strong demand from institutional investors and corporate buyers, which are helping
to lift the entire cryptocurrency market. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $165
• Raised to Neutral at Phillip Secs; PT $127
• Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $9
• BCE (BCE CN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$33
• Cummins (CMI) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $480
• Disney (DIS) Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $135
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $134
• Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $89.06
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $48
• Generac (GNRC) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $200
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
• Sabre (SABR) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $3
• Soundhound (SOUN) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $16
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $70
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Sell at Melius
• Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $6
• C3.ai (AI) Cut to Reduce at President Capital Management; PT $18.40
• Cut to Underperform at DA Davidson; PT $13
• Decisive Dividend (DE CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$8
• Emera (EMA CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$68
• GDI Integrated (GDI CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $5
• Haemonetics (HAE) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James
• Health Catalyst (HCAT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $3.50
• InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Cut to Sell at Desjardins; PT C$13.55
• MaxCyte (MXCT) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• OMA (OMAB MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $105
• Orion SA (OEC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $9
• Power of Canada (POW CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$58
• Quanterix (QTRX) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $5
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $56
• Universal Electronics (UEIC) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $5
• Initiations
• Advanced Drainage (WMS) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $159
• ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• Aura Minerals (ORA CN) Rated New Outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT C$48.13
• Bladex (BLX) Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $55
• Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $25
• Gates Industrial (GTES) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $29.70
• Grupo Cibest (CIBEST CB) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Credicorp Capital; PT $46.70
• JD.com (JD) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $42
• Mirum Pharma (MIRM) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $89
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) US Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $28
• TC Energy (TRP CN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
• Urban Edge (UE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $23

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke