TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET New York Fed Services Business Activity; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index; 12:00ET
Zelenskiy at the White House; 12:45ET Fed’s Bowman speaks
Highlights and News:
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Trump and Zelenskiy to discuss Russia’s terms for peace
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Putin offers land swaps, security guarantees at Alaska summit
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Trump tells Ukraine to give up on NATO and Crimea
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Zelensky will show up at the White House wearing the same black jacket he wore to a NATO summit
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Trump says he is going to lead an effort to get rid of mail in ballots and electronic voting machines
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TESLA SAID THE MODEL Y L IS COMING SOON – CHINA SOCIAL MEDIA
Global stocks fluctuate in a “wait-and-watch” mode as Zelenskiy and his European allies arrive in Washington today, eager to learn about Trump’s commitments from
his summit with Putin and concerned that he may push Kyiv toward difficult concessions in a possible ceasefire. Trump and Putin agreed that the US could offer security guarantees to Ukraine, according to Steve Witkoff. The details of the security guarantees
and any potential territorial concessions remain unclear. Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by Putin and Trump,
sources briefed on Moscow’s thinking said. Putin’s offer ruled out a ceasefire until a comprehensive deal is reached, blocking a key demand of Zelenskiy. Trump told Ukraine to give up hopes of getting back annexed Crimea or joining NATO.
EQUITIES:
US equity futures are mixed in cautious trade as Trump prepares to host President Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington today to press Kyiv into accepting a peace deal with Russia.
Trump will meet first Zelenskiy and then the leaders of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the European Union and NATO. Investors will closely monitor reports from Walmart, Home Depot and Target this week to determine how trade uncertainty and inflation
expectations have affected the American consumer. Goldman Sachs says S&P 500 companies beat forecasts this earnings season, with Q2 EPS up 11% vs. 4% expected. Firms offset tariffs by cutting costs, reshaping supply chains, and passing prices to consumers,
while a weaker dollar boosted sales. Investors will then turn their focus on Jackson Hole later in the week, where Federal Reserve policymakers gather for their annual policy symposium.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI -0.02%
In pre-market trading, Dayforce Inc. (DAY) jumps 26% after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider.
Soho House & Co. (SHCO) rises 16% after a group of investors agreed to take the company private. TeraWulf (WULF) climbs 4% after saying that Google has agreed to boost its stake in the company to about 14% from around 8%. Microsoft (MSFT) +0.07%, Alphabet
(GOOGL) +0.09%, Apple (AAPL) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.6%.
European gauges edged lower as risk tone slips in the aftermath of the Trump-Putin summit, with investors anxiously awaiting a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy today.
The Stoxx 600 drifts lower while France’s CAC 40 Index underperforms as financials weigh. Vestas Wind Systems A/S jumped 17% after new US tax credit rules were better than feared, and Novo Nordisk A/S gained after its weight-loss drug received FDA approval
to treat a serious form of liver disease. Boozt gains as much as 11%, more than offsetting Friday’s 5.3% earnings-triggered losses, after SEB raised its recommendation on the Swedish online retail group to buy from hold. In London, Pantheon Resources gained
as much as 17%, the most since January, after the oil and gas explorer reported that it has found hydrocarbons at the Dubhe-1 appraisal well. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.4%, CAC -0.8%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Healthcare +0.6%, Aero & Defense +0.5%, Energy +0.4%. Banks
-1.3%, Basic Resources -1.2%, Autos -1%.
Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eking out a 0.1% gain. Shanghai-listed stocks closed at its highest level in a decade, as local investors
continued to pour in cash amid easing trade tensions with the US. Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil following his weekend meeting with Vladimir Putin. Shares in India jumped after Narendra
Modi’s Independence Day speech, which included plans to cut the consumption tax for the first time since it was introduced nearly a decade ago. Shares fell in South Korea, weighed by a selloff in chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. CSI 300 +0.9%,
Shanghai Composite +0.85%, Sensex +0.85%, Nikkei 225 +0.8%, Taiwan +0.6%, Vietnam +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.2%. Hang Seng Index -0.4%, Philippines -0.4%, Singapore -1%, Thailand -1.4%, Kospi -1.5%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, following similar gains across European bonds as investors weigh potential impact of today’s political talks on the
Russia-Ukraine war, and ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week. US Treasury yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s spread flatter by around 1.5bp. 10-year yield is down 2 bps to 4.295%. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $16 billion
20-year new issue. An $8 billion 30-year TIPS reopening is due Thursday. Fed officials will gather along with global policymakers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday to Saturday.
METALS:
Gold prices edged up, helped by lower Treasury yields, while market players awaited Trump’s meeting with Zelenskiy and European leaders later in the day to discuss
how to approach a possible deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by
Putin and Trump. Investors are also looking ahead to the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for more cues on Fed’s interest rate path. Economists polled by Reuters largely expect the Fed to announce a rate cut in September, with a possible second
cut by year-end. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver +0.3%, Copper futures -0.6%.
ENERGY:
Oil prices ticked up ahead of a meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskiy. Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Saturday and emerged
more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine and had to stop. Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs
on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, citing progress he said was made with Putin toward ending the war in Ukraine. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas -3.3%, RBOB +0.6%.
CURRENCIES:
In currency markets, the dollar inches higher, staying in tight ranges versus major peers as the market displays typical summer dynamics. Front-end volatility trades
in a sea of red despite a series of event risks due this week, including a meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s Zelenskiy, the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering and a run of US data releases. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY
+0.2%, AUDUSD +0.025%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK -0.05%.
Bitcoin -2.2%, Ethereum -4.3%.
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
David Wienke
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