Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing
PMI, Services PMI; 10:00ET Leading Index, Existing Home Sales; 1:00ET 30-Year TIPS Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Euro-Zone Business Activity at 15-Month High Despite Tariffs
• Vance Says Russia Wants Territory That’s Under Ukraine’s Control
• Ex Fed’s Bullard: Rates Are High Right Now, Can Cut 100 Bps Into 2026; Has Talked With Bessent About Fed Chair Position
• Boeing in Talks to Sell as Many as 500 Planes to China
• Zelenskiy Rules Out China Among Security Guarantors; Says Peace Talks Should Take Place in ‘Neutral Europe’
• LAVROV: UKRAINE DIRECTLY SHOWS IT IS NOT INTERESTED IN SUSTAINABLE AND LONG-STANDING SETTLEMENT – RIA

Global stocks eased as investors braced for three days of potentially market-moving news from the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Central bankers
from around the world will attend the event, which begins later today, with the key focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Euro zone business activity saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024, despite persistent weakness
in exports, a PMI survey said. UK firms unexpectedly reported their strongest activity in a year in its August PMI survey, thanks to a rebound in the dominant services sector. Business activity expectations for the year ahead were the highest since October
2024, but the manufacturing PMI weakened. On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control — including Ukrainian
territory that Russia isn’t occupying. Zelenskiy said Kyiv would like a “strong reaction” from the US if Putin was not willing to sit down for a bilateral meeting with him.

EQUITIES: Reminder: MSCI Rebalance moved to Tuesday Aug 26th – not Friday Aug 29th
 

US equity futures are lower, after a run of selling in big tech, as traders stayed guarded ahead of the Federal Reserve’s gathering at Jackson Hole. Nasdaq 100 fluctuated after a two-day
selloff that shaved 2% off the index. Sharp losses in high-flying momentum stocks may present a dip-buying opportunity if history is any guide, unless tech earnings next week drive a prolonged AI selloff, according to Goldman Sachs trading desk. When the long-short
momentum basket dropped 10% or more over a five-day span in the past, it proceeded to rise in the following week 80% of the time, they said. Nvidia’s results next week will be another key test, with expectations for improving global tech earnings.        

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.4%

In pre-market trading, Boeing Co. (BA) gains 1.5% as the company is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft. Canadian Solar
(CSIQ) falls 11% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below analyst expectations. Coty (COTY) falls 20% after the personal care products company forecast steep sales declines and reported a wider-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter. Dayforce (DAY)
rises 1.4% after entering into a definitive agreement with Thoma Bravo to become a privately held company. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) gains 2% after being raised to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. SharkNinja (SN) trades lower by 2% as
holders affiliated with Chairperson CJ Xuning Wang offer 5 million shares in the household-appliance maker. Two Harbors Investment (TWO) falls 3% after the mortgage REIT resolved litigation with Pine River via a one-time $375m cash settlement and cut its quarterly
dividend to 34c a share. Walmart (WMT) slips 2.4% after the world’s largest retailer posted second quarter profit that disappointed.

European gauges are in the red after three days of gains after eurozone business activity hit a 15-month high and as investors parse a slate of earnings results. Nordics
represented several of the region’s biggest movers, with hearing-aid maker GN Store Nord surging 19% after reporting earnings, while Norwegian oil firm Aker BP jumped after a large oil find in the North Sea. DNO gains as much as 11% after the Norwegian oil
company reported its latest earnings and hiked its dividend per share by around 20%. UK retailer WH Smith plunged ~40%, its biggest drop on record, after signaling North American profit will be much weaker than previously hoped. Aegon shares jump as much as
7.4% after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback. European beauty and personal care stocks fell after US company Coty reported a wider adjusted loss in 4Q than analysts expected. Stoxx
600 -0.4%, DAX -0.3%, CAC -0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Media -2%, Luxury -1.2%, Chemicals -1.1%, Retail -0.9%. Aero & Defense +1.25%, energy +0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with Australia’s benchmark rallying to hit a record high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo among the top
drags after a series of block trades at a discount.  Taiwan’s TAIEX topped the leaderboard, followed closely by Vietnam. “There is a strong case for Taiwan,” as it’s a structural AI play with valuations more palatable than peers, Ian Samson, a multi-asset
portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. MSCI equity gauges for every nation in the region are trading above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since 2021, according to Sentimentrader.com. Asian petrochemicals
shares rose as China is set to launch a sweeping overhaul of its petrochemicals and oil refining sector. Taiwan +1.43%, Vietnam +1.42%, ASX 200 +1.1%, New Zealand +0.9%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Kospi +0.4%, Singapore +0.3%, Sensex +0.2%. Hang Seng Index -0.2%, Thailand
-0.3%, Topix -0.5%, Indonesia -0.7%, Hang Seng Tech Index -0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are under pressure in early US trading amid steeper losses for most European bond markets sparked by stronger-than-anticipated August preliminary PMI gauges.
Japanese government bond yields edged higher, with the 20-year yield advancing to 2.655% for the first time since late 1999 and the 10-year yield rising to its highest since October 2008 at 1.610%. US yields are higher by 1bp-3bp, with the 10-year rate advancing
two basis points to 4.315%. $8 billion 30-year TIPS reopening at 1pm New York time has a yield near 2.66% and a breakeven inflation rate of about 2.25%, lower than actual CPI inflation of 2.7% in July, an indication investors don’t expect current levels to
be sustained.

METALS: 

Gold edged down as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole gathering for clues on the path for US interest rates. Swiss gold exports to the US surged
last month to the highest since March, with shipments of bullion jumping to almost 51 tons in July. Record bullion exports worth more than $36 billion made up more than two-thirds of Switzerland’s trade surplus with the US in the first quarter. Spot gold -0.4%,
Silver -0.5%, Copper futures -0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are a bit higher as larger-than-expected declines in crude oil and fuel inventories in the US supported expectations for steady demand. Brent crude rose
to the highest in two weeks with uncertainty over efforts to end the war in Ukraine also lending support. Russia said on Wednesday that attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine over the war without Moscow’s participation were a “road to nowhere”.
Russian embassy officials in New Delhi said that Moscow expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the United States. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas +0.7%, RBOB +0.6%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar is mixed versus G-10 peers, trading within mostly tight ranges. Short-term traders seen offloading shorts into Powell’s speech
Friday and following the release of Fed meeting minutes, according to traders. The Norwegian krone is the best-performing G-10 currency after Norway’s GDP grew more than forecast in the second quarter. The euro trimmed losses after data showed the euro area’s
private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn. Sterling erases small gains made after data showed the UK’s private sector expanded at the strongest pace in 12 months. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.02%, EURUSD
-0.05%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD is flat, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum -1.6%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Bio-Techne (TECH) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $70
• Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $21
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $180
• Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $180
• Estee Lauder (EL) Raised to Hold at China Merchants; PT $82
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $28
• iQIYI (IQ) ADRs Raised to Buy at UBS
• Kanzhun (BZ) ADRs Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $26
• Downgrades
• Aris Water Solutions (ARIS) Cut to Hold at Texas Capital; PT $25
• BCE (BCE CN) Cut to Sell at Accountability Research; PT C$32
• Coty (COTY) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $4.25
• EnVVeno Medical (NVNO) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann
• Extra Space (EXR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $146
• Guild Holdings (GHLD) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at Citi
• Instacart (CART) Cut to Underperform at Wedbush; PT $42
• Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $33
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $75
• Monday.com (MNDY) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $205
• South Bow (SOBO CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$37.45
• Truist Financial (TFC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
• Initiations
• Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
• Adient (ADNT) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $27
• Allot Ltd (ALLT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• American Axle (AXL) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $6
• Aritzia (ATZ CN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT C$95
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $61.90
• Cooper-Standard (CPS) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $39
• Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $159.90
• K+S (SDF GR) K+S ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $5
• Oruka Therapeutics Inc (ORKA) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $46
• PubMatic (PUBM) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $17
• Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Vontier Corp (VNT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $50

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke