Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:00ET Fed’s Collins speaks; 10:00ET Fed Chair Powell speaks; 11:30ET Fed’s Hammack speaks
on CNBC

Highlights and News:  

• Trump to make a “major announcement noon today,” the White House
• Nvidia in talks with US to sell a more advanced chip to China
• US won’t demand equity stakes from chipmakers including TSMC and Micron
• “Alligator Alcatraz” immigrant detention camp must be dismantled, a federal judge ruled
• Effective immediately we are pausing all issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers: Marco Rubio
• Hamas demands opening of border crossings

Global stocks rose as investors await Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference. Postal services around the world are pausing deliveries
to the US — at least temporarily — as the end of the de minimis exemption approaches, citing a lack of clarity from American authorities on how duties will be collected. The German economy shrank 0.3% in the second quarter, dragged down by weaker manufacturing.
Japan’s core CPI slowed to 3.1% year-on-year in July, in line with expectations but well above the BOJ’s target. A key measure of euro-area pay growth jumped, with second-quarter negotiated wages rising 4% from a year ago, supporting caution by the ECB on
further rate cuts. Next week will see central bank policy decisions in South Korea and the Philippines.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are slightly higher in cautious trading, with investors awaiting Powell’s latest policy blueprint and weighing whether the Fed will stay cautious on inflation or tilt
toward supporting a softer labor market. Nvidia shares fall 1% in premarket trading after the Information reported the chipmaker had instructed component suppliers to stop production related to the H20 AI chip after Beijing urged local firms to avoid using
it. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said the company is in talks with the US government about shipping a new, more advanced chip to China. The Trump administration will not seek equity stakes in chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor and Micron Technology that are
boosting their US investments, as talks continue on taking a stake in Intel, a US official said. Trucking stocks might be active today after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US will halt issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers.      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.3%

In pre-market trading, Biohaven shares (BHVN) gain 13% after the company said the FDA communicated to the company on Aug. 21 that an expected decision regarding the
NDA for Troriluzole will still be the fourth quarter. Gap shares (GAP) fall 2% as Barclays downgrades to equal-weight from overweight. Intuit (INTU) falls 6% after reporting results on Thursday, tepid forecast overshadowed an otherwise strong fourth quarter
report. Nvidia (NVDA) falls 1% after the chip giant instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics and Amkor to stop production related to the H20 AI chip. Ross Stores shares (ROST) rise 2.7% after the retailer posted earnings per share for the
second quarter that beat analyst estimates after better-than-expected tariff-related costs. Workday (WDAY) drops 5% after the human-resources software company reported second-quarter professional services adjusted gross profit that missed estimates. The company
also announced it has agreed to acquire Paradox. Zoom Communications (ZM) jumps 5% after the video conferencing company raised its revenue guidance for the full year.

European gauges are steady after reversing early losses. The Stoxx 600 grinds slightly higher, led by gains in financial services, health care and auto names. Paper
and forestry stocks rise after a report that Suzano will increase pulp prices, while Akzo Nobel gained over 5% after activist investor Cevian Capital built a stake in the company. Polish banks plunge after the country’s government announced plans to raise
corporate taxes on lenders. In London, Standard Chartered gains as much as 3.9% after the US Department of Justice rejected claims by two whistleblowers that it failed to properly investigate allegations of sanctions violations by the bank. Aspen shares slide
as much as 16% in Johannesburg after the pharmaceutical company said it expects its full-year normalized headline EPS to come in below analyst expectations. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX ~flat, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Financial Services +0.6%, Autos +0.5%, Healthcare
+0.5%. Insurance -0.1%, Media -0.1%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher as a rally in Chinese and South Korean shares helped offset losses in Vietnam and India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1%,
with TSMC among the biggest drags while Tencent gave support. Equities in South Korea gained ahead of President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to Japan. Chinese stocks recorded its biggest weekly rise since November. Gains in local chipmakers provided an added tailwind
after a report that US rival Nvidia has instructed component makers to stop production related to its H20 AI chips. Hang Seng Tech +2.7%, CSI 300 +2.1%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%, Kospi +0.9%, Thailand +0.7%, Topix +0.6%, Philippines +0.05%. Indonesia -0.4%, ASX
200 -0.6%, Taiwan -0.8%, Sensex -0.8%, Vietnam -2.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that may clarify the outlook for an expected September interest-rate cut. The Fed’s
Austan Goolsbee called the recent spike in services inflation “dangerous,” but hopes it proves a blip. He also said the September meeting will be “live.” Yields are lower by less than 1bp, with 10-year yield down about 1 bp to 4.32%. Curve is mixed with 2s10s
flatter by 1.5bps and 5s30s +1bp.

METALS: 

Gold inches lower in muted trading ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest caution about moving too
quickly when easing monetary policy, though money markets are still broadly betting on a September interest-rate cut. Physical gold demand indicators are showing mixed signals in Asia, contributing to gold’s sideways trading. Indian jewelers have cautiously
picked up purchases ahead of the festival season, though at much lower than normal levels. Spot gold -0.3%, Silver -0.4%, Copper futures -0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied as the market weighed the outlook for Russian crude flows to India after the Trump administration ramped up criticism of the trade ahead of an
expected tariff increase. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro blasted India again for continuing to buy Russian oil and said he sees US import levies on the nation doubling as planned on Aug. 27. Russian crude shipments to Hungary and Slovakia through
the Druzhba pipeline were halted again, just two days after flows resumed following Ukrainian drone attacks. The oil market is heading for a large surplus through early 2026, raising chances of another OPEC supply cut, Morgan Stanley said. UBS analysts expect
global oil demand to peak for the year in August and modestly decline over the coming months. WTI +0.2%, Brent +0.1%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB -0.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

Currency markets are calm while the dollar hovered near a two-week high as investors scaled back expectations for rate cuts in anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s
highly awaited speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee acknowledged the upcoming meeting is “live” and could bring a change in interest rate policy, although he noted mixed economic data and recent unexpectedly high inflation
data gave him pause about the prospect of an imminent easing in interest rates. The yen eased as data showed core inflation in Japan slowed for a second straight month in July. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD ~flat, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD ~flat, NZDUSD
-0.2%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.2%.

Bitcoin -0.1%, Ethereum +1%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Esab (ESAB) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $140
• Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $150
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $589
• Downgrades
• Coty (COTY) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $4
• Dayforce (DAY) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Dream Residential REIT (DRR/U CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT $10.80
• Gap (GAP) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $19
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Volaris (VOLARA MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $7
• Initiations
• Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $59
• Dorman Products (DORM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $175
• Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Reinstated Buy at First Shanghai; PT $195
• GN Store Nord (GN DC) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $70
• Great Lakes Dredge (GLDD) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $14
• LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $10
• MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $250
• Netgear (NTGR) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $35
• Novonesis (NSISB DC) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $59
• Orion Group (ORN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $9
• Quanta Services (PWR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $437
• QXO (QXO) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $50
• Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $8
• WeRide (WRD) ADRs Rated New Outperform at GuoSen; PT $13.58

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke