Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 25, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET US July New Home Sales; 3:15ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 7:15ET Fed’s Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump plans to sign an executive order today to eliminate “cashless bail” for arrested suspects in DC
  • Germany charges US citizen with spying for China
  • Major brokerages pivot to Sept Fed rate cut on Powell’s labor warning
  • HASSETT: INTEL WILL GET CHIPS ACT MONEY, GOVT WILL GET STAKE
  • HASSETT: POSSIBLE THAT GOVT TAKES MORE EQUITY STAKE FROM FIRMS
  • JAPAN PREPARING JOINT COMMUNIQUE FOR ITS INVESTMENTS IN US
  • Thousands of homes in northern California and central Oregon were under evacuation orders on Sunday from wildfires

 

Global stocks dipped as some of the euphoria around expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts eased, with concerns about tariffs and their impact on inflation
and corporate profits back in focus. China dialed up its injection of longer term liquidity into its financial system in a move that’s likely intended at easing the selloff in bonds and ensuring adequate funding for the flailing economy. German business morale
improved unexpectedly in August to its highest level in 15 months, a survey showed, although analysts warned the economic outlook remained weak. Israel said it’s ready to start withdrawing troops from Lebanon if the government there follows through with a
plan to disarm Hezbollah by year-end.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures edged lower after the S&P 500 jumped the most since May on Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole. Powell used his keynote speech
to signal the Fed is headed for an interest-rate cut as soon as its next policy meeting in September. That optimism faces key tests this week, including a US inflation reading and Nvidia’s results. Intel climbed more than 3% in premarket trading after the
US agreed to take a 10% stake in the chip maker. Crescent Energy and Vital Energy announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement where Crescent will acquire Vital in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $3.1 billion. Keurig Dr Pepper
will buy JDE Peet’s for $18.4 billion in cash in an effort to revive its struggling coffee business. The combined company will later separate its beverage and coffee operations, essentially reversing the 2018 deal that combined Keurig and Dr Pepper. Now comes
Nvidia, which is set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday after the market close. JPMorgan analysts ‘remain tactically bullish and look for the rally to continue as we get support from NVDA earnings but expect the rally to broaden so expand beyond tech.’
 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, Aehr Test Systems shares (AEHR) rise 14% as the semiconductor test and burn-in equipment supplier receives additional follow-on orders for six
Sonoma ultra-high-power packaged part burn-in systems from its lead production artificial intelligence (AI) processor customer for packaged part burn-in. Alignment Healthcare Inc. shares (ALHC) rise 3.3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the application
software firm to overweight from sector weight, noting Alignment Healthcare’s approach emerging as a better “MA-VBC mousetrap.” American Eagle Outfitters shares (AEO) fall 4.1% ahead of the bell after BofA Global Research cut the recommendation on the apparel
retailer to underperform from neutral amid tariff pressures on profitability. Crypto-linked stocks (MSTR -4.3%, COIN -2.5%, BLSH -4%) fell with Bitcoin and Ether token prices in premarket trading Monday, as broader markets pulled back after expectations of
US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts eased.  Dyne Therapeutics shares (DYN) rise 6.5% after Raymond James analyst Martin Auster raised the recommendation to strong buy from outperform, citing optimism about an investigational therapy for Duchenne muscular
dystrophy, a rare muscle disease. Napco Security Technologies Inc. shares (NSSC) rise 16% after the maker of security systems reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda above what analysts expected. Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) rises 10% premarket after Canaccord
Genuity turned bullish, saying the hair care products company has seen a “brand reinvigoration” and is set to return to growth after a bumpy sales ride since the 2021 IPO. Shares in furniture stocks (RH -8.1%, W -7.5%) could be active today after President
Trump announced a “major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States.” Vital Energy shares (VTLE) jump 9.3% in premarket trading Monday after Crescent Energy (CRGY -6.4%) agreed to acquire the company for about $733 million.

European gauges ease. The Stoxx Europe 600 inches lower after closing just short of an all-time high Friday. Liquidity was lower than usual, with UK markets closed
for a holiday. Danish renewable-energy company Orsted A/S plunged over 16% to record lows after the Trump administration halted construction on an almost-finished offshore wind farm. Thule falls as much as 6.4% after SEB cut its recommendation for the Swedish
outdoor equipment maker to sell. Valneva plunged 26% after the French vaccine maker’s shot for a mosquito-borne disease was suspended in the US. Keurig Dr Pepper agreed to buy JDE Peet’s NV for €15.7 billion (€31.85 a share in cash) to bolster its struggling
coffee business. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.2%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 closed.

Shares in Asia rose, boosted by Chinese chip stocks and continued optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 1%, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent providing the biggest boosts to the benchmark. Most major equity indexes were in the green, with Taiwan, China and Hong Kong leading the gains in the region. Investors’ focus turns to corporate earnings as Asian companies
enter their busiest reporting week. Traders will be keenly watching whether Chinese firms will deliver on expectations amid a blistering rally. Chinese authorities may issue more policies to speed up urban renovation work in September to support slumping property
market, the Securities Daily reported. Stocks in Vietnam fell for a second day on heavy foreign selling, driven by FX pressures and stretched valuations in blue chips also weighed on the market. Hang Seng Tech +3.1%, Taiwan +2.2%, CSI 300 +2.1%, Hang Seng
Index +1.9%, Kospi +1.3%, Indonesia +0.9%, Thailand +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Sensex +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.05%. Vietnam -1.9%, New Zealand -2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold mild losses as US trading gets underway, picking up from Asia session as UK has a bank holiday. US 10-year yield is +2bps at 4.285%. Yield curve is
mixed with 2s10s slightly flatter.  Major brokerages, including Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, now expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September following Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks.  Analysts at Bank of America are sticking to their call
for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next month.  Traders see an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut next month after Powell signaled that the central bank may ease before inflation fully returns to target amid a softening hiring environment. Despite Powell’s speech,
clear divisions remain among Fed officials. The St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem said he’ll need more data, Reuters reported, while Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee (pictured) pointed out he’s still more concerned about the inflation side of their mandate than employment.

 

METALS: 

Gold inched down as the dollar strengthened. In the week ahead, traders are looking forward to Friday’s July personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed’s
preferred inflation gauge. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect core PCE will rise 2.9% on a year-over-year basis, compared to its 2.8% increase in June. Spot gold inched down around $3,368 per ounce, after touching its highest since August 11 on Friday.
Spot gold -0.1%, Silver -0.6%, Copper futures +0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices were further supported by the lack of progress on talks between Russia and Ukraine, which keeps sanctions on Russian supplies. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.5%,
US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB -0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar regains traction following Friday’s post-Powell selloff. USD/JPY rebounds back above 147-handle after dropping 1% in previous session.
Investors are awaiting US personal consumption prices data on Friday that are expected to show core inflation creeping up to its highest since late 2023 at 2.9%. Offshore yuan hits a one-month high after the PBOC strengthens CNY fixing by most since January.
The yen slipped as BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda said he expects a tight labor market to keep upward pressure on wages, reflecting his view that stable inflation is set to take hold. The euro dipped as data showed confidence among German firms unexpectedly improved to
the highest since 2022 after the European Union struck a trade deal with the US. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin %, Ethereum %. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alaska Air (ALK) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $70
    • Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $21
    • Cenovus (CVE CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$28
    • Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $35
    • Fabrinet (FN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $345
    • FirstEnergy (FE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $49
    • Lazard (LAZ) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $65
    • Nubank (NU) Raised to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $16
    • Okta (OKTA) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $125
    • Olaplex (OLPX) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $2
  • Downgrades
    • American Air (AAL) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • American Eagle (AEO) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $10
    • Dayforce (DAY) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
    • Golar LNG (GLNG) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $44.50
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $194
    • SentinelOne (S) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Symbotic (SYM) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $47
  • Initiations
    • Ambiq Micro (AMBQ) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $48
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $45
    • Argenx (ARGX BB) ADRs Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $850
    • Aura Minerals (ORA CN) Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander
    • BeOne Medicines (6160 HK) ADRs Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
    • Charles River (CRL) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair
    • Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $26
    • Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Cue Biopharma (CUE) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $4
    • Devon (DVN) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Diamondback (FANG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Figma (FIG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
      • Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $82
      • Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $65
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $80
      • Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $75
      • Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $48
    • Gates Industrial (GTES) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $35
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Jones Lang (JLL) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $332.60
    • Journey Medical (DERM) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $13
    • Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Matador Resources (MTDR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Newamsterdam Pharma (NAMS) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
    • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Owens Corning (OC) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $171.30
    • Permian Resources (PR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • RB Global (RBA CN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
    • Royal Gold (RGLD) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $213.80
    • Shoulder Innovations (SI) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $20
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $19
    • Steris (STE) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $279.70
    • Symbotic (SYM) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $50.50
    • Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • Viper Energy (VNOM) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Zillow (ZG) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $88.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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