Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods, Fed’s
Barkin speaks; 9:00ET FHFA House Price Index; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Consumer Confidence; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Services Activity; 1:00ET US to sell $69B 2-year notes

Highlights and News:  

• European stocks pressured by risk of France’s government collapsing
• Canadian, US Officials to Meet After Canada Removes Some Tariffs
• US outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India
• Eli Lilly Announces Successful Trial Results for Orforglipron
• China’s Xi to welcome Putin, Modi next week in grand show of solidarity
  
• Trump said the US has more leverage over China on trade
  

Global stocks edged lower Trump threatened to impose fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other
nations’ digital services taxes. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou unexpectedly called a confidence vote that may topple France’s government as soon as next month, prompting a selloff in French assets. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s manufacturing slump is worsening
due to US tariffs, with companies considering job cuts and relocating production. More than 30% of companies are planning to shift operations to the European Union because of the US tariffs. Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang is expected to travel
to Washington this week to meet US officials. Canadian cabinet minister LeBlanc, will travel to Washington today ahead of a meeting with Commerce Secretary Lutnick just days after Canada pledged to remove most of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Prime
Minister Carney said that the meeting will focus on strategic sectors including autos, copper, steel and aluminum.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures edge lower after Trump moved to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations she falsified mortgage documents. Cook said the president has no authority to
oust her, and she won’t quit. Threats of fresh tariffs on advanced technology and semiconductors are also dampening sentiment.  Investors also
await Nvidia’s results, and a key inflation report later this week for more insight on artificial intelligence and the Fed’s policy path. Interactive Brokers rose more than 4% pre-market, as the trading platform is set to join the S&P 500 before markets open
on August 28. AT&T said it will buy spectrum licenses from EchoStar for about $23 billion in cash, strengthening its ability to deliver 5G and fiber services across the country.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.02%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, AMD (AMD) gains 2% after the company and IBM announced a quantum-centric supercomputing partnership. EchoStar (SATS) soars 58% after AT&T announced
an agreement to buy spectrum licenses from the satellite broadband communication company for about $23 billion. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) rises 1.8% after its experimental obesity pill helped patients lose 9.6% of their body weight in a trial that moves the company
one step closer to a potential approval. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) climbs 3% after the S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the automated-electronic broker will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Aug. 28, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance. Olaplex
Holdings (OLPX) rises 6% after announcing the acquisition of Purvala Bioscience, a Boston-based biotech company. Semtech (SMTC) gains 3% after the semiconductor device company reported second-quarter results that beat.

French stocks extend losses for a second day, leading declines across European bourses, as investors worried that Prime Minister Bayrou’s proposed confidence vote risks
toppling his government. Main opposition parties said they would not back the government in a September 8 confidence vote. Construction and banks sectors lead losses, while luxury, telecom and health care shares outperform. Bunzl shares rise as much as 6.3%
after the value-added distributor delivered first-half results. Filtronic shares jump as much as 11% after SpaceX agreed to buy £47.3 million worth of the gallium nitride E-band product. British retail stocks drop after a raft of downgrades at Deutsche Bank.
Commerzbank shares fall as much as 6.3% after BofA downgrades the German lender to underperform from neutral. Stoxx 600 -0.6%, DAX -0.3%, CAC -1.4%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Banks -2.6%, Construction -1.9%, Insurance -1.4%. Telecom +0.3%, Luxury +0.2%, Healthcare +0.1%.

Shares in Asia fell as a rally in Chinese equities paused amid signs of overheating, while earlier advances in the Japanese yen weighed on export-focused stocks.  The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1%, with tech firms Alibaba and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Red flags are emerging in China’s onshore stocks, following a surprise rally mostly driven by liquidity rather than improved economic fundamentals.
Measures from valuations to technical indicators and margin financing are beginning to flash warnings. While some analysts remain optimistic about the stamina of the rally, the rapid expansion of stock purchases made via margin financing may be another cause
for concern. Fresh tariff threats on advanced technology and semiconductors also added to worries over higher levies for trading partners that have set agreements with US earlier this month. Vietnamese stocks gained the most in three weeks, led by Vinhomes
and banks. Philippines -2.2%, New Zealand -1.4%, Hang Seng Index -1.2%, Topix -1.1%, Sensex -1%, Kospi -0.9%, Thailand -0.9%, ASX 200 -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.4%. Vietnam +3.3%, Taiwan +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed, with 30-year yields up 1.5 bps to 4.94% while two-year yields slip 3.5 bps, in a sign that investors continue to anticipate lower rates. Long-dated
Treasuries fell after President Trump said he was firing a Federal Reserve governor, an unprecedented move that fueled investor concerns about the Fed’s independence and its ability to keep inflation in check. Swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions
continue to fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October and a second one by year-end. Month’s final coupon auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note sale. 2s10s curve steeper by ~2 bps; 5s30s steeper by ~4 bps.

METALS: 

Gold touched a two-week high after Trump moved to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Forcing out Cook, who is facing allegations of mortgage fraud, would allow
Trump to secure a four-person majority on the seven-member board. Cook said the president did not have authority to fire her and vowed not to resign. Bullion climbed as much as 0.6% before paring some gains to trade near $3,378 an ounce. Meanwhile, India is
considering easing pension restrictions to allow investment in gold ETFs, sources said. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver -0.2%, Copper futures -0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices lost more than 1.5% after surging nearly 2% in the previous session as traders monitor developments surrounding the war in Ukraine and potential disruption
to Russian fuel supplies. Brent crude oil weakened to $67 a barrel and US crude fell below $64. Trump, meanwhile, has renewed his threat to impose sanctions on Russia if there is no progress towards a peace deal in the next two weeks. Oil’s near-term outlook
is clouded by the risk of double US tariffs on all Indian imports to punish purchases of Russian crude — a move that could disrupt flows and serve as an upside catalyst for prices. WTI -1.8%, Brent -1.5%, US Nat Gas +0.9%, RBOB -1.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slips after a volatile start today on Trump’s unprecedented move to fire a Federal Reserve Governor. Aussie$ turns firmer even after
the RBA says faster rate cuts may be needed. The euro reverses early losses versus the dollar supported by fresh turmoil around the Federal Reserve and pressured by political risk in France. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.35%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.25%, AUDUSD
+0.15%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Bitcoin +0.2%, Ethereum +1.5%:  Cryptocurrencies
remained choppy with bitcoin attempting to break a three-day losing streak.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Albemarle (ALB) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $89
• AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $213
• Camden Property (CPT) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $122.75
• Canada Goose (GOOS CN) Raised to Outperform at Baird
• Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $10.50
• Domo (DOMO) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $21
• Extra Space (EXR) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $160
• Genesco (GCO) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $38
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $83
• Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN (HBNC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $19
• Okta (OKTA) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $120
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Raised to Hold at UOB Kay Hian; PT $117
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $200
• Rocky Brands (RCKY) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $40
• Ross Stores (ROST) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• VF Corp (VFC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $20
• Whitecap Resources (WCP CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins
• Downgrades
• Generac (GNRC) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $219
• NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at New Street Research; PT $120
• scPharma (SCPH) Cut to Hold at Craig-Hallum; PT $6
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Spartan Delta (SDE CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins
• Verint (VRNT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $20.50
• Initiations
• Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $20
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Amer Sports (AS) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $25
• CareDx (CDNA) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair
• Ecolab (ECL) Resumed Market Perform at Raymond James
• NetScout (NTCT) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $33
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $92
• OneSpan Inc (OSPN) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $23
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $80
• Veralto (VLTO) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Zscaler (ZS) Rated New Neutral at B Riley; PT $275

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke