The ES opened lower, made a low at 6463.75 at 9:43, and slowly traded up to 6482.75 at 12:45. It then made a series of lower highs and traded down to 6453.00 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6455.50, down 28.50 points or -0.43% on the day.

In the end, it was a long, slow grind up and back down. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted tired. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was only 900k. Coming off the heels of last Friday’s big rally and high volume, yesterday was a terribly slow day. I think the ES and NQ need a few days of lower back-and-fill before they start going back up again.

The Next Big Move to Florida

I’ve written about this before — the Covid-19 pandemic changed everything. I gotta say it like it is: I knew in late March of 2020 that when the cold weather gave way to spring in Chicago and the rest of the nation, people would take to the streets — and they did. And guess what? They still are.

I remember flying into Chicago and riding in the back of a yellow cab down North Ave to my house in Old Town. As we passed a large strip mall with several businesses, including a big Best Buy, I saw the entire complex had been looted. The parking lot was filled with burned-out cars and debris. Every business had been completely destroyed.

During the following week, I went to Michigan Ave — the Magnificent Mile — and every store had been boarded up or ransacked. Out of the dust came the street protestors: Black Lives Matter, LGBT groups, anti-lockdown and anti-mandate protesters, coalitions of individuals and organizations opposing restrictions as infringements on civil liberties, and far-right groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Boogaloo Bois. Anyone with something to say was marching — but the more they marched, and the more groups that joined, the more their message became clouded.

Back in Delray Beach, Florida, it was business as usual — large crowds drinking, eating, and partying. By the end of March or early April, I saw moving vans and big car transporters on nearly every street. The great Covid-19 migration had arrived, and it wasn’t stopping.

The average older Florida home cost anywhere from $350k to $400k, and after I picked a few off in my neighborhood, they shot up to $900k to $1 million or more and the new construction boom started. Older homes with pools that had been rehabbed were being bought for $1.5 million to $2 million, and the price of new builds, initially offered at $3 million to $4 million, were being bought well over the asking price.

But as interest rates rose, home sales and prices fell. The hurricanes on Florida’s west coast and high insurance costs began pushing people to consider other areas. Many thought the migration was over and that tourism would drop — especially after Trump tariffed Canada and laid out travel restrictions. Yet Florida reported a record level of travelers and vacationers this summer.

Or did they?

I know in certain parts of the U.S. — especially the west side of Florida — home sales have slowed, but I think they could start booming again on the east side, particularly in West Palm Beach County — Wall Street South.

My guess? A lot of East Coasters, primarily in New York, who didn’t move to Florida will if Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 general election for Mayor of New York City. His plan is to pursue a progressive agenda focused on affordability, including free public transportation, rent freezes, expanded social services, city-owned grocery stores, free childcare, raising taxes on the wealthy, a minimum wage of $30/hr by 2030, building 200,000 new affordable housing units, creating the Department of Community Safety, making NYPD respond to mental health calls, funding anti-hate programs, and he holds a pro-Palestinian stance and criticizes Israel.

When I ask people from New York, “Why don’t you move here?” — 90% say they want to but still have family in the city. I don’t hear that as much anymore, and I don’t think I will in the future.

I love NY and Chicago, but I don’t like what has happened to either city since the Covid-19 pandemic. There are hundreds of great places to go, and the nightlife is the best in the world — but these world-class cities are surrounded by violence and crime.

It’s like an old story I’ve told before, when I got Black Mike off the streets, he warned me about the bad neighborhood I bought my home in. He said they were going to break into my garage. I told Mike I knew they were coming — I just didn’t know when.

Well, that’s how I feel about the next wave of New Yorkers moving here. I doubt mortgage rates will fall very much, but that really doesn’t matter — most new spec homes are paid for in cash.

Our View

I think the markets are going to range trade until Wednesday when NVDA reports after the close. Options traders are pricing in about a $260 billion swing in Nvidia’s (NVDA) market value following the chipmaker’s second-quarter earnings, expected Wednesday after the close. U.S. options market data shows Nvidia options are implying a roughly 6% swing for the shares in either direction.

This will be followed by the PCE number release on Friday morning.

The 109-point move last Friday has taken the wind out of the sails — but that’s going to be temporary.

Our Lean

Based on yesterday’s weak close, I think we could see some further weakness today. Like I said above, the ES and NQ acted tired.

That’s what I was writing — until this showed up:

Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the ES sold off down to 6430.75.

Our lean: I think we’ll see two-way price action today, but I can’t rule out another drop down to the 6400 level — where I’d look to be a buyer.

Also worth noting: Wednesday is historically the best day before Labor Day weekend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been up 16 of the last 21 years on the Wednesday before the holiday, with average gains of 0.54% and 0.67%, respectively. DJIA and Russell 2000 have also finished higher more than 70% of the time over the same time frame. Average gains on that day range from 0.46% for the DJIA to 0.71% for the Russell 2000.

Labor Day has become the unofficial end of summer, and the three-day weekend is now prime vacation time for many. Over the last 21 years, Friday has been the weakest day on average, showing modest declines across all four major indexes.

ES – Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6465. This is the key level that defines directional bias for today. Trading below keeps the tone bearish, while regaining and holding above shifts momentum to the upside.

Currently, ES is trading at 6448.75, under the bull/bear line. This signals short-term weakness. If sellers maintain control under 6465, the downside targets are first at 6414.50, our lower range target, and then at 6368.25. A break below these levels would likely accelerate selling pressure.

On the upside, resistance comes first at 6494, followed by 6515.50. A push above 6515.50 opens the door to test 6563.25. Sustained trade above 6563.25 would signal stronger bullish momentum resuming.

Support levels to monitor are 6438.75 and 6414.50. Resistance levels are 6494 and 6515.50.

Overall, the bias remains bearish while below 6465, but any reclaim of that level could trigger a shift back toward the upside. Reminder, we are still in a long-term bullish trend.

NQ – Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,513.25. This is the key pivot that will define directional bias for today. Trading above this level favors buyers, while sustained trade below it keeps the pressure on the downside.

Currently, NQ is trading around 23,473.00, which is below the bull/bear line. This suggests sellers have the advantage early in the session. If price continues lower, the first downside target is 23,443.25, followed by the lower range target at 23,267.25. A break through this level could accelerate downside momentum, opening the path toward deeper support at 23,035.75.

On the upside, buyers need to reclaim and hold above 23,513.25 to shift momentum back in their favor. Immediate resistance comes in at 23,602, with further upside into the upper range target at 23,759.25. Above that, R1 sits at 23,990.75. Sustained strength above that level would confirm a more bullish stance.

Additional support levels sit at 23,411.50 and 23,189.75, while resistance layers above include 23,616.25 and 23,855.

Overall, the trend remains weak below 23,513.25, and sellers maintain the edge unless that pivot is recovered. Reminder, we are still in a longer-term bullish trend, so buyers will likely continue defending deeper pullbacks when tested.

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