Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 27, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  No major economic releases are scheduled. 11:30ET $28 billion 2-year FRN reopening; 1:00ET
$70 billion 5-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

  • EU to Propose Removing US Tariffs This Week to Meet Trump Demand
  • German firms want tough action from EU in US tariff talks
  • Russian forces made symbolic territorial gains against Ukraine
  • KREMLIN CALLS PUTIN’S VISIT TO CHINA “UNPRECEDENTED”
  • China seeks to triple output of AI chips in race with US
  • BESSENT: A US STAKE IN NVIDIA SEEMS ‘NOT ON THE TABLE’
  • Drug cartel boss Ismael Zambada Garcia agreed to forfeit $15 billion in proceeds from his crimes

 

Global stocks fluctuate as Trump’s doubling of India tariffs to 50% takes effect. New US tariffs have been imposed on India to pressure New Delhi into distancing
itself from Moscow, which have thus far had the opposite effect.  Meanwhile, the EU is aiming to expedite legislation to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods by the end of the week, a demand made by President Trump before the US will lower its duties
on the bloc’s automobile exports.  A majority of French people want new elections, opinion polls showed today, with Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looking likely to collapse next month. Vietnam accelerated island-building efforts in contested
waters of the South China Sea. China said it would take “necessary measures” to combat the Vietnamese effort, insisting that the region was its “inherent territory.” Xi Jinping has unleashed the biggest purge of military leaders since Mao Zedong, ousting almost
a fifth of the generals he personally appointed. The Dutch government faces a no-confidence vote, threatening to plunge the Netherlands into an unprecedented political crisis.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures wavered as investors counted down to Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report, due after the close. Traders are focusing on Nvidia’s earnings for signs as to whether
the AI boom has staying power and if US-China rivalry is limiting growth. Revenue projections vary widely across the street, while option traders are pricing in the lowest post-earnings swing in at least two years at 6%.  MongoDB and Okta surge in premarket
trading after both software companies lift their forecasts for the year. US-listed shares of Canada Goose rose over 8% after a report said controlling shareholder Bain Capital had received bids to take the luxury goods maker private. Results from CrowdStrike,
Snowflake, HP, NetApp, Veeva, Agilent, Cooper, Trip.com and Urban Outfitters are due later in the day.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) gains 6% with the company to replace Sarepta Therapeutics in the S&P MidCap 400 effective Sept. 2. JM Smucker (SJM)
falls 3% after the peanut butter and jelly maker reported that first-quarter net sales were weighed down by decreased sales of coffee, dog snacks, sweet baked goods and fruit spreads. Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) rises 16% after offering a more optimistic view for full-year
sales. MongoDB (MDB) soars 31% after the software company reported second-quarter results that were much stronger than expected. It also raised its full-year forecast. NCino (NCNO) gains 9% after the cloud banking company reported adjusted earnings per share
for the second quarter that beat. Okta (OKTA) is up 4% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. PayPal (PYPL) falls 2% after Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that several banks blocked
direct debits in the wake of payments that appeared to be suspicious or fraudulent. Photronics (PLAB) rises 14% after the semiconductor supplier reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat estimates.

  • MDB US (+30%): MongoDB Soars With Results, Guidance a ‘Blowout’: Street Wrap
  • NCNO US (+11%): nCino Jumps as Mortgage Volumes Boost Revenue: Street Wrap
  • CBRL US (+7.4%): Cracker Barrel Scraps New Logo After Social Media Backlash
  • OKTA US (+5.5%): Okta Gains on Strong Results, Raised Outlook: Street Wrap
  • ELAN US (+4.9%): Elanco to Replace Sarepta in S&P MidCap 400
  • SNOW US (+4.7%): Earnings Day Ahead: Nvidia, RBC, CrowdStrike, Snowflake
  • GTLB US (+4.0%): Gitlab Options Surge, Led by Call Spreads
  • BOX US (+2.7%): Box Gains as Results Show Solid Billings Growth: Street Wrap
  • SATS US (+3.0%): EchoStar Gains on Report Starlink, T-Mobile Eyeing Spectrum
  • DNUT US (-4.3%): Krispy Kreme Falls as JPMorgan Cuts on Turnaround Execution Risk

European gauges are mixed with banking stocks sliding the most while luxury leads gains.  Italian banks shares fall in Milan trading as the country’s government is
seeking to tap into bank profits as a way to prop up public finances. Shares of Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG also dropped after both lenders were downgraded by Goldman Sachs Group. The CAC 40 edged up after two days of declines due to the political
turmoil, to outperform the Stoxx Europe 600. LVMH, TotalEnergies SE and Hermes International led gains. British producer output price inflation rose to a two-year high of 1.9% in June, up from 1.3% in May, according to preliminary official data. Stoxx 600
+0.2%, DAX -0.2%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Luxury +2%, Personal Goods +1%, Healthcare +1%. Banks -1%, Chemicals -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, weighed down by a sudden drop in Chinese equities in the afternoon session, reversing an earlier advance. Still, many traders remain
optimistic, citing the high level of household savings and that fact that some of the nation’s wealthiest investors have started piling into the rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with Tencent, Woolworths Group and Meituan the biggest drags on the
gauge. The Philippines and Taiwan were among the top gainers. Chinese Chip and AI-related stocks rose as Beijing intensifies efforts to boost AI adoption through expanded financial and fiscal support. China’s industrial companies saw their profits fall at
a slower pace in July, with industrial profits declining 1.5% last month from a year earlier. Profits climbed much faster in the manufacturing sector, growing 6.8% in July from a year ago. Earnings of chip-related manufacturers soared as much as 176%. Nikon
shares surged 21% after Bloomberg reported that EssilorLuxottica is exploring a potential deal to increase its stake in the Japanese optical equipment manufacturer. India was closed for a holiday. CSI 300 -1.5%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%, New Zealand -0.7%, Thailand
-0.3%, Topix -0.1%. Philippines +2.1%, Taiwan +0.9%, Indonesia +0.4%, Vietnam +0.3%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.25%, Kospi +0.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries steadied after long-dated debt from the US to France and the UK retreated Tuesday, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries little changed at 4.27%. Treasury
curve steepens further as the short end continues to advance, pushing US two-year yields down another 3.5 bps to 3.645%. Supply cycle continues with $70 billion auction of 5-year notes, the largest of the seven nominal coupon sales.

 

METALS: 

Gold slipped as the dollar firmed and some likely profit taking after hitting a two-week high. Newmont Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, is studying plans to
drive down costs that could lead to deep job cuts. Rio Tinto will simplify by reorganizing into three divisions: iron ore; aluminum and lithium; and copper. China’s Zijin Mining, the world’s third-biggest metals miner, warned that unprecedented global uncertainties
pose challenges to its overseas projects. On the data front, the focus is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. Spot gold -0.5%, Silver -0.6%, Copper futures -1.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are steady as Trump’s 50% levy on most Indian imports took effect, targeting India’s purchases of Russian oil as a punitive measure. Weekly crude shipments
from Russian ports fell by 320,000 barrels a day in the week to Aug. 24, tanker-tracking data show. India saved billions of dollars by stepping up imports of discounted Russian oil in the wake of the war in Ukraine, but punitive tariffs that came into effect
today will quickly undo the gains. “India needs Russia for defense equipment for several more years, cheap oil when available, geopolitical support and political backing on sensitive matters,” the founder of Delhi’s Council for Strategic and Defense Research
said.  US and Russian officials have reportedly discussed resuming energy cooperation as part of peace talks over the war in Ukraine. ExxonMobil has held talks with Russia’s biggest state energy company over returning to a mammoth gas project there and has
approached the Trump administration for support. WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +1.3%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar advanced versus all Group-of-10 peers, and the euro fell to its lowest in three weeks as month-end flows set the tone. The European
Union will seek to fast track legislation by the end of the week to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods. Australia’s dollar fell as CPI came in above expectations at 2.8%, moving closer to the top of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target. US$ Index +0.45%,
GBPUSD -0.3%, EURUSD -0.45%, USDJPY +0.45%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.45%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.35%, USDNOK +0.45%.

 

 

Bitcoin is flat, Ethereum +0.6%:   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Amer Sports (AS) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $700
    • GlobalFoundries (GFS) Raised to Neutral at Arete; PT $37
    • Prologis (PLD) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $114
    • Televisa (TLEVICPO MM) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Vir Biotechnology (VIR) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $14
  • Downgrades
    • Fortune Brands (FBIN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $60
    • Health Catalyst (HCAT) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • SBA Comms (SBAC) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Verint (VRNT) Cut to Hold at Needham
  • Initiations
    • Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $66
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
    • Dynatrace (DT) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $65
    • Groupe Dynamite (GRGD CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$42
    • Hagerty (HGTY) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $14
    • Humacyte (HUMA) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $3.50
    • Inventiva SACA (IVA FP) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • IonQ (IONQ) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $61
    • Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $18
    • Phreesia (PHR) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $36
    • Senseonics (SENS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $1.50
    • Serve Robotics (SERV) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $15
    • Sharplink Gaming (SBET) Rated New Buy at Alliance Global Partners
    • StorageVault Canada (SVI CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$5.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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