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GOOG Ruling Sparks ES Spike After Heavy Buy Programs + HandelStats Call for September
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Our View
The ES sold off down to 6387.00 at 8:51, then rallied up to a 6403.50 double top at 9:27. It opened the regular session at 6389.25, down 84.75 points or -1.37%. After the open, the ES made a low at 6383.25 and rallied up to 6424.50 at 10:00, then sold off down to 6371 a drop of over 53 points down .83% from the 10:00 AM high.
After the low, the ES rallied up to 6395.75, traded down to 6388.00, and then rallied all the way up to 6413.75 at 1:51. It sold off down to 6396.00 at 2:45, rallied to 6412.75 at 2:51, and again up to 6416.50 at 3:20. After a pullback to 6410.00 at 3:24, the ES traded up to 6421.75 at 3:43, then sold off slightly to 6416.00 at 3:47. It traded 6423.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $6.5 billion to buy, pushed higher to 6427.75, and closed the 4:00 cash session at 6426.00.
After the close, the ES pulled back briefly before spiking to 6444.00 at 4:10 after GOOG, following a judge’s ruling that the company won’t have to sell its Chrome browser. The ES ultimately settled at 6, down 47.24 points or -0.73% on the day. This follows Friday’s decline of -0.69%.
In the end, the ES and NQ were not the only markets moving — bond yields and the dollar rose, while gold hit a new all-time high at $3,549.40 per troy ounce. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the first three hours of the day were weak, while the last four were strong. Total volume jumped to 1.6 million contracts traded — the highest since July 20.
This morning, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at 9:00. Job openings and factory orders are due at 10:00, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 1:30, and the Fed Beige Book at 2:00.
Our View
September — historically the worst month for the ES over the past decade — started out with a bang. Renewed debt and inflation concerns triggered a global bond selloff, which weighed on the ES and NQ early in the session. But around 12:00, the selling dried up and the buy programs kicked in.
After the initial push higher, there were a few small pullbacks, but the tone shifted entirely as new money poured in on the first trading day of the month. The ES and NQ were “bid” going into the 3:50 imbalance, but they screamed higher after it showed $6.5 billion to buy — and then GOOG did the rest of the heavy lifting.
I know I’ve said this before, but the ES and NQ didn’t just reverse higher for no reason. There were billions in stock to buy, and you can’t tell me that buying wasn’t leaked. I used to see this on the floor because I was taking the orders. It got worse over the years, but never like it has been the last few years.
#### IMPORTANT STAT GOING INTO SEPTEMBER ####
HandelStats Market Insights: September 2025 SPX OutlookWhy September Matters for SPX Traders
At HandelStats, we dig deep into market patterns to give you an edge. As we head into September 2025, historical data suggests a bullish setup for the S&P 500 (SPX), especially after August’s strong close. Here’s what our quantitative analysis reveals:
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Historical Context: Since 1970, August has closed higher 31 times and lower 24 times. September, however, is the only month with a bearish tilt, closing lower in 30 of 55 years, higher in 24, and unchanged once.
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2025 Setup: This year, August closed higher, and the SPX is up year-to-date. This scenario has occurred 22 times since 1970, and in 21 of those years, the SPX ended the year higher—a 95% win rate.
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September’s Key Levels:
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In 19 of those 22 years (86%), the September high surpassed the August high.
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The September low was lower than the August low in only 5 cases; in 17 cases (77%), the September low held above August’s low.
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Our Expectation: Based on this data, we anticipate the SPX September high will take out August’s high, signaling potential upside. Traders should watch for support at August’s low and prepare for opportunities to capitalize on new highs.
Our Lean
All the ES has been doing is trading on the lower end of the last 4- to 6-week range, while gold has totally broken out to the upside. It’s an unbelievable pattern that still has a lot of room to go.
Silver traded up to $41.86 and is now approaching the Hunt Brothers’ 1980s highs at $49.45. You can’t tell me there isn’t a shift going on related to the dollar.
Our lean: I want to buy the pullbacks. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some good short-sale opportunities, but I don’t think the upside is over. I think 6400, or a little lower, is the line in the sand — and if the ES starts breaking below there, we could see a retest of yesterday’s lows at 6371.75. It would not be good if the ES starts taking that out.
To the upside, I’m watching the 6465–6475 level.
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
rior Session was Cycle Day 3: Post Holiday Hang-Over struck hard for the morning session as traders decided to smash bids down to the 6375 level creating a solid opportunity for the BTFD crowd, namely Mutual Funds.
As the early afternoon session unfolded, buyers returned and jacked price higher into the closing bell with a $6 Billion Market on Close (MOC) Buy Imbalance related to the Mutual Funds putting new monies to work on the first trading session of the month.
Notable was price failing to reclaim the CD1 Low (6455.50) creating a “failed-cycle” which only occurs 9% historically. Though this could be related to the holiday, based on the late day rally, the failure could be negated with a reclaim of the 6455.50 level.
Range for this session was 110 handles on 1.615M contracts exchanged.
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.2.25
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection (6434.75).
Note: This level was exceeded and reclaimed during the prior session. These rhythms are related to the holiday disruption and will eventually self-correct.
So for today’s trade, based on the late day rally, reclaiming the previous lost CD1 Low (6455.50) would be anticipated but not assured.
Normally we are looking for a decline on CD1 with lower levels of interest are: 6411.50…6390…6375.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6425+-, initially targets 6455 – 6465 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6425+-, initially targets 6405– 6390 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6428 PVA Low Edge = 6390 Prior POC = 6425
ESU
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
MiM and Daily Recap
The overnight Globex session opened at 6480.75 and quickly set its tone with a drop to 6465.75 at 19:20, marking the first lower low. Buyers briefly stabilized prices, lifting ES to 6476.25 at 21:40, but momentum faltered as a lower high printed at 6471.25 by 22:40. The market continued to bleed lower through midnight, reaching 6463.00 at 01:10. A temporary recovery carried ES to 6472.50 at 03:00, but this failed to hold as selling pressure reasserted itself. By 03:50, futures fell sharply to 6427.75, a 44.75‑point slide from the overnight high. A modest bounce brought ES back to 6446.00 at 04:40, yet the downside trend persisted. By 09:30, shortly before the regular session open, Globex set its low at 6387.25, down nearly 84.75 points from the prior day’s settlement. The session closed at 6398.25, a loss of 82.50 points or -1.27% from the session open.
The cash session began at 6398.25, with buyers staging a sharp rebound from the overnight weakness. The market spiked to 6425.00 by 10:00, but quickly reversed lower, finding a fresh low at 6371.75 by 11:55. That marked the nadir of the day’s decline. From there, sentiment shifted as dip buyers drove ES steadily higher. By 13:50, futures recovered to 6413.75 before pausing for a brief pullback to 6396.00 at 14:40. The upward momentum strengthened into the late afternoon, carrying ES to the session’s peak of 6448.00 at 18:00. The regular session ultimately settled at 6426.00, up 27.75 points from the open but still 57 points below the prior day’s cash close.
The cleanup session extended gains modestly, pushing ES to 6447.25 at 17:00 before finishing there, adding 21.25 points from its open. Volume across the full day totaled 1.61M contracts, with the bulk concentrated during the cash session at 1.26M.
In summary, the full session closed at 6447.25, down 33.50 points or -0.52% from the open, with the cash‑to‑cash measure showing a decline of 57 points (-0.88%).
Market tone tilted bearish for much of the overnight and early regular session, with sellers firmly in control until midday. The deep Globex selloff weighed heavily, but a resilient rebound during the afternoon cash trade limited the damage. The overall sentiment was mixed: heavy overnight liquidation followed by measured daytime recovery.
The Market‑on‑Close imbalance data showed a sizable $5.68B to buy, with 85.7% of dollar flow and 65.1% of symbols favoring the buy side. While not breaching the 66% threshold for symbols, the dollar imbalance was notably strong, helping support the late‑day rally and sustain prices into the close. This buying appetite at the bell mitigated what could have been a deeper loss and left the market leaning cautiously bid heading into the next session and foreshadowing some positive trading as appetite for equities continues.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 3, 2025:
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SP: 10.19
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NQ: 43.09
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Dow: 59.14
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Tuesday, September 2, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 36% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 155 / 25
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 229 / 120
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NYSE TRIN: 0.69
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.50
Weekly Market 📈
For the week ending Friday, August 29, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 281 / 25
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 478 / 166
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NYSE TRIN: 0.80
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.60
ES Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6428.00. This is the key pivot level for today’s session. Trading above it would shift the tone bullish, while staying below keeps pressure on the downside.
Currently, ES is trading near 6455.50, holding above the bull/bear line. If price maintains this strength, the immediate upside target is 6475.75, followed by the upper range target at 6478.75. Beyond that, resistance sits at 6491.50 and then 6520.50. A breakout through these resistance levels would open the door for further momentum higher.
On the downside, if ES loses 6428.00, sellers could take control with a move toward 6380.25. The lower range target is at 6371.75, and a breakdown through that area risks an extension toward 6335.50.
In summary, the trend leans bullish as long as ES holds above 6428.00, with buyers aiming for 6475.75 and 6478.75. A decisive break below 6428.00 shifts focus to 6380.25 and 6371.75.
NQ Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,280.50. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to take hold. Holding above this line would favor buyers, while remaining below it keeps the trend under pressure.
Currently, NQ is trading around 23,434.00, which is above the bull/bear line, showing a short-term bullish bias. If buyers can sustain this strength, the next resistance comes at 23,529.00, followed by 23,763.00, which is the upper range target for today. A push through 23,763.00 would confirm a stronger upside continuation.
On the downside, immediate support rests near 23,479.00, with stronger levels at 23,280.50 and then 23,032.50, the lower range target. A failure to hold above 23,280.50 would shift momentum back to sellers, exposing 23,032.50 and potentially extending towards 22,798.00.
Overall, the market bias leans bullish as long as price holds above 23,280.50. A sustained move above 23,529.00 opens the door for a test of 23,763.00, while weakness below 23,280.50 puts sellers back in control.
Calendars
Economic
Today
Important Upcoming / Recent
Earnings
Upcoming
Recent
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, September 2, 2025
The first trading day of September came in fast and heavy, kicking off the month with a high-volume, technical selloff that eventually set the stage for strong afternoon recoveries and profitable long setups. Here’s how the day unfolded:
Morning Session – Aggressive Selloff & Bearish Control
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Premarket weakness in the broader market was noted early, with Mag7 stocks all showing losses (e.g., NVDA -2.3%, AMZN -1.4%).
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David and Manny identified a strong technical breakdown below ES 6416.5 / SPX 6400, triggering bearish targets toward 6375–6350. Manny’s levels provided excellent guidance for downside potential.
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Volatility returned after a slow August. Manny noted: “Sept opening with a bang in vol terms.”
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Audio and chart stream issues briefly interrupted the room but were resolved by 9:17 AM ET.
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Key morning sandbox: 6385–6405. The room traded around these levels with short bias confirmed early on.
Successful Trades & Key Lessons – Midday Turnaround
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@NQ ORT Long executed and scaled successfully in the late morning, with David flipping bias to the buy side. All NQ ORT targets were hit before the 10 AM ISM release.
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@CL Open Range Long was called around 11:30 AM ET — scaled, trailed, and all targets fulfilled by 1:30 PM.
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Despite a bearish structure mid-morning, David and Manny stayed tactical and open to both sides.
Lesson: Trust your process, not just the price action. David emphasized, “You do not need to trust price action. You need to trust yourself and your trade plan.”
Afternoon Session – Recovery & Bias Shift
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After reclaiming ES 6375, A4 algo shifted to long, giving traders an opportunity to recover from earlier stop-outs.
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Roy noted: “The A4 long took care of the AM stop outs,” showing how quickly traders were able to pivot and recover.
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Bias remained bullish into the close, supported by A10 and reclaim of key levels.
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Manny’s “Charm Flip” level at ES 6414 offered another potential acceleration point late in the day.
End-of-Day Commentary & Context
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Despite being Cycle Day 3, the market failed to recover CD1’s low of 6455.50, a rare occurrence (only 9% of historical cases).
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A $6.4B MOC Buy Imbalance confirmed institutional flows (Mutual Fund Tuesday), aligning with the narrative of retirement funds being deployed early in the month.
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David wrapped it up: “Bulls regained control during the afternoon from the morning clean out of weak hands.”
Takeaways
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Strong discipline and technical awareness allowed the room to profit even in a highly volatile session.
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Adaptive bias shifts, especially with the A4/A10 signals and ORT setups, proved essential.
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The session reinforced the importance of having a clear trade plan and the flexibility to pivot when the market does.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, September 3, 2025
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Macro & Headlines
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Stocks fell Thursday amid sharp losses in Nvidia (NVDA) and rising political risk.
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Trump responded to a federal court ruling against his tariffs, seeking an immediate Supreme Court hearing, calling the situation an “emergency.”
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Trump claimed markets are down “because they want the tariffs.”
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Fed Governor Lisa Cook is facing contested fraud allegations, with court action delayed until later this week.
Earnings
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Premarket: Dollar Tree (DLTR)
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After the bell: Salesforce (CRM), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), CRDO
Economic Calendar
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10:00am ET: JOLTS Job Openings, Factory Orders
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2:00pm ET: Fed Beige Book
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Fed speakers: St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem (9:00am ET), Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari (1:30pm ET)
Consumer Trends
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PwC reports sharpest expected drop in holiday spending since the pandemic.
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Over 50% of consumers say rising prices will affect their shopping behavior.
Markets
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Gold continues to climb amid equity and bond market stress.
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Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) gained on favorable court rulings.
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Volatility surged: ES 5-day average daily range now 67.5 points.
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Bullish whale bias into JOLTS on elevated overnight volume.
ES Technical Levels
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Key resistance: 5436/39s (former uptrend channel bottom), 6436/39s, 6694/99s, 6721/26s
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Key support: 6359/64s (next channel bottom), 5843/48s
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Tuesday’s bounce near 50-day MA (6365.50) seen as short-term bullish
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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