Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET U. of Mich. Sentiment

Highlights and News:  

• Savannah Bananas at Yankee Stadium this Weekend
• Tariffs revenue neared $30 billion this August
  
• Bessent to Meet China Vice Premier in Madrid
• TRUMP SAYS KIRK SHOOTING SUSPECT IS IN CUSTODY (someone close turned him in)
• Bill Ackman said he’ll create a $1 million “endowment” for Charlie Kirk’s family
• KENVUE CEO PLANS TYLENOL DEFENSE IF REPORT LINKS TO AUTISM: WSJ
• TRUMP: `WE’RE GOING TO’ MEMPHIS TO FIX IT JUST AS WE DID IN DC

World stocks pause as a global rally sputtered ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. China urged Mexico to “think twice” before levying tariffs, warning that
any unilateral tariff increase would be seen as “appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying”. China’s exports to Mexico have nearly doubled since 2016, in part because Chinese companies moved operations there to avoid tariffs.  Risk appetite has
been improving in Asia as tariff worries ease on progress in US trade talks and optimism on the AI trade. Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and TikTok. Meanwhile, the US plans to pressure the G-7 to impose higher
tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil, the FT reported.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures wavered in cautious trading, after the three major indexes recorded all-time highs on Thursday. Microsoft rose in premarket trading, leading the Magnificent Seven after
it avoided a hefty antitrust penalty from the European Union. OpenAI is moving closer to a for-profit structure under a new deal with Microsoft, giving its nonprofit parent an equity stake of more than $100 billion. Adobe shares rose premarket on a strong
revenue forecast, suggesting investments in AI features are paying off. Super Micro Computer Inc. shares rise more than 5% in premarket trading after the server company announced the availability of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions. Trump said on Fox and
Friends that he believes they have Charlie Kirk’s assassin in custody and that a minister and the shooters father were involved in bringing him to justice.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.2%

In pre-market trading, Adobe (ADBE) rises about 3% after giving a strong quarterly revenue outlook, suggesting that the software maker is seeing a payoff from its investment
in AI features. Alaska Air (ALK) gains 2% as an upgrade from UBS gives the stock a clean sweep of buy ratings among analysts. Array Technologies (ARRY) declines 5% as BofA assigns the solar tracking technology firm its only negative analyst rating, downgrading
to underperform based on tariff drag. RH (RH) falls 8% after the luxury furniture company cut its sales outlook for the full year, citing mounting impacts from new US tariffs. Stellantis’ US shares (STLA) fall 3% following comments from CEO Antonio Filosa
on dealer inventory levels and the company’s tariff talks with Washington. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 29% rally as Paramount Skydance is said to be preparing a bid for the company.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, as technology shares extended gains on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.  The MSCI
Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, for a seventh day of gains in its longest winning streak since May 2024. South Korea’s Kospi notched another all-time high, after SK Hynix announced it had completed development of its next-generation AI memory chip. Shares in Hong
Kong also rose, with Alibaba surging amid optimism over its AI infrastructure plans. Indonesia’s key equity gauge jumped more than 1% on optimism over plans from the nation’s new finance minister. Hang Seng Tech +1.7%, Kospi +1.5%, Indonesia +1.4%, Hang Seng
Index +1.2%, Taiwan +1%, Nikkei 225 +0.9%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Vietnam +0.6%, Sensex +0.4%, CSI 1000 +0.3%. Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Singapore -0.3%, Philippines -0.3%, CSI 300 -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US treasuries edge lower, with yields 1-2 bps higher amid bigger losses for bunds during European morning following German and French CPI data. 10-year yield is up
~2bp around 4.05% with 2s10s curve barely steeper on the day. September preliminary University of Michigan sentiment — also including inflation expectations — is US session’s only scheduled event. French bonds lagged most regional peers ahead of a Fitch Ratings
update on the country, due after the close. Treasury auctions resume next week with 20-year bond reopening (Tuesday) and 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday).

METALS: 

Gold edges higher and is headed for a fourth weekly gain. Spot gold traded near $3,650 an ounce, up about 1.8% this week and up nearly 40% this year. UBS Group AG
raised its price target for gold to $3,800 an ounce by the end of the year, citing elevated gold ETF buying, lower rates and dollar weakness. Gold ETF holdings jumped about 25 tons this week — the sixth-highest weekly gain this year — on the back of Fed rate-cut
bets. China plans to ease gold import-export rules by expanding the scope of multi-use permit per shipment and removing usage limits, the PBOC said.  Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +1.7%, Copper futures +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Crude oil prices reversed early losses after Ukrainian drones attacked Primorsk, home to Russia’s main oil-loading terminal on the Baltic coast, in one of the largest
attacks on its enemy since the start of the war. Meanwhile, the EU is finalizing work on its 19th sanctions package against Russia. Oil’s fair value is probably in the mid-$50s, Trafigura’s Ben Luckock said, while noting that prices remain elevated due to
geopolitical risks and China’s reserve buying. WTI +1.5%, Brent +1.8%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB +1.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar advanced versus all Group-of-10 peers, although modestly. Sideways-trading dynamics remain in place as focus turns to next week’s
Fed meeting. The yen came under pressure after the US and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to market-driven exchange rates and avoiding FX manipulation for competitive advantage. Sterling eased as data showed that the UK economy stagnated in July. US$ Index
+0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.2%.

Bitcoin +0.5%, Ethereum +2.5%   Winklevosses’ crypto exchange Gemini raised $425 million, pricing its stock above the marketed range.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Acadia Realty (AKR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $23
• Alaska Air (ALK) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $90
• Aptiv (APTV) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• FactSet (FDS) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $370
• General Motors (GM) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $73
• Haivision Systems (HAI CN) Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$6.50
• Raised to Buy at Acumen; PT C$6
• SL Green (SLG) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $70
• Vornado Realty (VNO) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $42
• Downgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Array (ARRY) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $7
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Couche-Tard (ATD CN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT C$80
• FedEx (FDX) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• Huntsman (HUN) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $9
• Kite Realty (KRG) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $24
• Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• NextDecade (NEXT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10
• Novartis (NOVN SW) ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $118
• Orion SA (OEC) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $9
• Potbelly (PBPB) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Proficient Auto Logistics (PAL) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Restaurant Brands (QSR CN) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
• RH (RH) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $220
• Tronox (TROX) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $4
• Vimeo (VMEO) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Initiations
• Dick’s Sporting (DKS) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $298
• Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) Resumed Outperform at BMO; PT C$36
• Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $16
• Montage Gold (MAU CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$7.50
• Nouveau Monde (NOU CN) Rated New Sector Perform at National Bank
• Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $73
• Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Resumed Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $72
• Richards Packaging (RPI-U CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $40
• StandardAero (SARO) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $32
• Theravance Bio (TBPH) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $28
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke