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Roll Over and Lean On
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Recap
The ES had an exact 20-point range on Globex, 6576.00 to 6596.25, and just opened the regular session at 6589.75. It basically chopped in a 3- to 5-point range, traded down to 6585.00 at 9:36, had a run-up to 6608.75 at 10:54, and then sold off down to a higher low by 3 ticks at 6585.75 at 11:48.
It back-and-filled for the next hour and a half, then traded up to a lower high at 6605.75 at 2:51. It then sold off 23.5 points down to 6583.50 at 3:42, started to go bid, and traded up to 6595.50. It traded 6587 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $1 billion to buy, upticked to 6597 and sold back off down to 6585.50, then traded 6587.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
In the end, Friday was a continuation of the uptrend, but the ES and NQ didn’t act right late in the day. In terms of the ES, it was firm but acted tired on Friday’s close. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at just over 1 million contracts traded.
The bonds and notes closed lower, grains rallied, oil closed up small, gold and silver closed higher, and Bitcoin and the dollar closed higher.
Today officially kicks off the rollover, with the December contracts now trading as the front month. I had to look at this twice—there are 12 economic reports, and a lot of them are market movers. We’ve got the Fed’s two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s speech at 2:30, and the long-awaited ‘September Triple Witching’ expiration.
Our View
So far, so good for the month of September. The ES gained 1.8%, its best week since early August, and the NQ closed at a record, rising 2% for its second winning week in a row. The YM also had its first winning week in three weeks.
While it’s been all fun and games on the upside in the beginning of September, as we head into the Fed, there are a lot of questions Powell is going to answer this week.
I know there is some talk of a 0.50% bps rate cut. I think the Fed will stick with a 0.25% cut. But like I said above, it’s not just the Fed and the September Triple Witching—there are also a lot of big economic reports.
And lastly, another volatility getter: the US/China trade negotiations started in Madrid but are unlikely to yield substantial breakthroughs.
Our Lean
Things should pick up as the week rolls on, and I want to pay close attention to the starts. I still think we could see higher prices, but I also think we’ll see some two-way pricing action.
Our lean: If we see a 10- to 20-point gap up, I’m selling the early rallies. And if we open lower, I’m a buyer. I think we could close lower today.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium Only)
MiM and Daily Recap
ESZ
ESU
The overnight Globex session in the December ES contract (Z) opened at 6649.50 and initially traded higher, marking a high of 6649.50 at 19:15 before fading into the night. Selling pressure pushed the contract to a low of 6641.50 at 22:15, representing an 8‑point pullback (-0.12%). A rebound carried prices back to 6649.50 at 01:45, but that recovery was short‑lived. Sellers pressed again, and by 04:15 the ES marked a new overnight low of 6631.25, down 18.25 points (-0.27%) from the earlier high.
From there, a steady bid entered the market. Buyers stepped in around the European morning, lifting the contract to 6648.50 just before the cash session open at 6645.00. After a weak opening bar, the market initially chopped higher, reaching 6654.25 by 10:55. However, a decent dip followed, sending ES down to 6641.75 by 11:45. Buyers reasserted themselves midday, carrying the index to 6662.75 at 14:50, setting the day’s high. That marked a 21‑point rise (+0.32%) off the midday low.
The afternoon turned more two‑sided. By 15:40, the ES dropped sharply to 6639.25, a 23.5‑point decline (-0.35%) from the high. A brief bounce into 15:50 at 6653.75 failed, and the market weakened into the close. The regular session ended at 6644.25, essentially flat, down 0.75 points (-0.01%) from the open and off 2.75 points (-0.04%) from Thursday’s cash close.
Together, total volume for both contracts summed to just over 1.04 million contracts, with 947,617 in the U contract and 92,827 in the Z. Going forward, volume will begin shifting heavily into the December contract as rollover continues.
Market tone was mixed throughout the day. The early Globex weakness gave way to a solid rally, but the cash session proved choppy with lower highs into the afternoon. The inability to sustain momentum above 6660 left the market range‑bound, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
The Market‑on‑Close imbalance showed $1.3 billion to buy, with 63% of the dollar flow on the buy side. However, the symbol count leaned heavily negative at -56%, highlighting that fewer issues participated on the buy side, even as notional dollars skewed positive. Notably, semiconductors led the buy imbalances with AMD (+$78.7M) and NVDA (+$43.1M), while healthcare names like UNH (-$24.2M) and ABT (-$13.6M) weighed on the sell side. Sector‑wise, technology and healthcare attracted net buy interest, while consumer defensive and energy skewed negative.
Overall, sentiment leaned neutral‑to‑slightly bearish as buyers failed to press their advantage despite supportive imbalance data. With Fed week underway, traders appear reluctant to extend risk until Wednesday’s policy decision clarifies the path forward.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 15, 2025:
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SP: 59.94
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NQ: 250.39
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Dow: 361.24
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 34% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 37% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 36% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 130 / 25
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 287 / 60
• NYSE TRIN: 0.78
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.42
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 360 / 71
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 755 / 214
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77
Today’s BTS Levels:
ES Z
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6645.75. This is the key pivot level for today. Holding above it favors the bulls, while sustained trade below it would shift the tone more bearish.
Currently, ES is trading around 6656.75, just above the bull/bear line, showing early strength in the Globex session. If the market can maintain this level, upside targets include 6662.75 and the upper range target at 6677. Beyond is R1 level at 6706.50.
On the downside, initial support rests at 6649.50 and then back at the 6645.75 bull/bear line. If sellers regain control below 6645.75, the next downside targets are 6631.25 and the lower range target at 6614.50. A failure at that level opens risk for a deeper move toward 6585.
Overall, the short-term tone leans bullish as long as ES holds above 6645.75. A decisive break below would tilt sentiment back toward the bears, with traders watching 6614.50 closely as the key lower support.
NQ Z
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,329.75. This is the key level that must be held for bullish sentiment to remain intact. Above this level, buyers maintain the upper hand and can target higher resistance zones.
Currently, NQ is trading around 24,372.00, holding above the bull/bear line. As long as price stays above 24,329.75, upside momentum remains favored. Immediate resistance is at 24,395.50, followed by the upper range target at 24,472.25. A sustained push through this zone could open the door for a move toward 24,606.50.
On the downside, first support comes in at 24,255.75, followed by 24,200.75. The lower range target sits at 24,187.25, and a breakdown below this area could extend losses toward 24,053.25.
Overall, the bias stays constructive while NQ holds above 24,329.75, but slipping below this pivot would shift sentiment bearish and expose deeper support levels. Traders should continue to monitor price action relative to the bull/bear line for intraday direction.
Calendars
Today’s Economic Calendar
This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
Recent Earnings
Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, September 12, 2025
Friday’s trading session was a classic Cycle Day 2, with price action exploring both the upper and lower boundaries before ultimately settling near the key Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6592 — a true display of “Precision Squared”, as PTGDavid aptly noted in the close.
Key Themes of the Day
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Capital Preservation Friday: David emphasized a cautious approach, with the day focused more on defense than aggressive offense.
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Price Structure: The session opened weak, with overnight lows at 6575, followed by a snap-back buy response. The bear scenario was outlined below 6592, with targets into 6575–6565.
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Line in the Sand (LIS): 6592 was today’s LIS and proved to be an important magnetic level throughout the session.
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No major breakout but strategic scalps and disciplined protocol-based setups were the order of the day.
Highlighted Trades & Technicals
Pullback Buy Zone (Manny)
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First Setup: Buy zone at ES 6580 → Dip to ES 6572 showed absorption with reclaim attempts.
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Stops: 6566
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Targets: 6584–6592
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Second Setup: Prime buy at ES 6542 → 1–3 min reclaim above 6546–48.
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Stops: 6536
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Targets: 6560 → 6572 → 6584
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ETH Low Reclaim Setup
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Manny’s Level: ES 6576 (SPX 6584) as a spike flush/reclaim zone.
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Reclaim Entry: 6576–6578
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Targets: 6584 → 6588 → 6594 → 6600
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Stops: 6569 or time-based
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These setups rewarded traders who stayed patient, especially as the tape whipsawed post-University of Michigan sentiment data, which came in soft (55.4 vs. forecast 58.0).
Lessons & Insights
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Rules vs. Protocol: Excellent discussion between PTGDavid and Manny.
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Rules are binary (yes/no).
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Protocols are behavioral patterns and adaptive frameworks — critical for evolving with the market.
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Defense is Key: Quoting Paul Tudor Jones — “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.”
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Emotional Management: Manny shared how his S.L.P. (Stop Loss Protocol) and other frameworks were designed to counter emotional decision-making.
Trader Psychology & Resources
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Great conversation around mental game coaches like Dr. Andrew Menaker and Rande Howell, with multiple traders recommending 1-on-1 work and referencing free resources on YouTube.
Rollover Reminder
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PTGDavid confirmed that the group will roll to the December (Z) contract on Monday.
Community Notes
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Charts were shared throughout the morning by David and Manny, showing live examples and technical structure.
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There was also some light Friday banter, with traders supporting each other on setups and technical tool usage (Sierra Chart sounds, Synergy mouse/keyboard software, etc.).
Closing Notes
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David signed off early for a noon meeting, reinforcing the idea of Capital Preservation FRYday.
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The market respected the technical roadmap, and 6592 acted as a gravitational close level, capping a disciplined and textbook session.
Summary
A low-stress, structured trading day focused on discipline, technical precision, and capital preservation. No need to force trades on a Friday — those who stayed patient and followed protocols saw solid setups play out cleanly. Great end to the week!
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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