Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 16, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Retail Sales, NY Fed Services Activity, Import Price Index, Export Price Index; 9:15ET
Industrial Production, Manufacturing (SIC) Production,
Capacity Utilization; 10:00ET Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index; 1:00ET 20-year bond reopening

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Files $15 Billion Lawsuit Against New York Times
  • BESSENT: WE NEED TO MEET AGAIN WITH CHINA BEFORE NOV. 10
  • Cook Can’t be Fired Yet; Senate Confirms Miran
  • The top 10% of earners accounted for ~half of all US consumer spending in Q2; highest since 1989
  • Marco Rubio warned Hamas has a “very short” window for a negotiated deal
  • US, UK FINANCE FIRMS TO ANNOUNCE INVESTMENTS DURING TRUMP VISIT
  • Bird flu was confirmed in Nebraska dairy cattle
  • Robert Redford dies at 89; RIP

 

Global stocks edged toward record highs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The central bank is expected to announce its policy decision on Wednesday,
and swaps markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction. The Fed isn’t the only central bank in focus this week with rates effecting two-fifths of the global economy set to be made or confirmed. Global asset managers are the most bullish since February,
with equity allocation at a seven-month high while cash levels remain extremely low, BofA’s fund manager survey showed. China’s steel exports are set to hit an all-time high this year for the first time since 2015, defying predictions that unprecedented trade
barriers would drive down shipments. Meanwhile, Israel started an expanded ground operation in Gaza City after President Trump’s top diplomat warned Hamas there’s a “very short window” for negotiations to end the war.  The US will start formally implementing
a lower 15% tariff on imports of Japanese autos and parts starting today.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures inch higher with the Nasdaq 100 looking to make a 10th straight day of gains as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch a new cycle of interest-rate cuts. Lisa Cook is
set to take part in the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow after an appeals court blocked Trump from firing the Fed governor. So is Stephen Miran, who was confirmed in a 48-47 Senate vote. In corporate news, Nvidia’s newest RTX6000D chips designed for China market
are said to have seen tepid demand with some major firms not placing orders. Oracle climbs in premarket on a report it may play a key role in a US-China deal for TikTok.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI -0.05%

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) rises 1.3%, paring earlier gains after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe over issues with door handles
on certain Model Y vehicles. Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 7% after Morgan Stanley boosted its price target on the fuel-cell manufacturer. Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) tumbles 15% after the restaurant operator reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the second
quarter that came in well below the average analyst estimate. Hershey’s (HSY) gains 2% after Goldman Sachs double upgraded the shares. New York Times (NYT) shares slip 1.9% after President Donald Trump filed a $15 billion defamation and libel lawsuit against
the news organization. Oracle (ORCL) rises 5% after CBS News reported that the software giant is among a consortium of firms that would enable TikTok to continue operations in the US if a framework deal is finalized. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) shares fall
1.5% as TD Cowen downgraded to hold from buy after the stock rallied even as Paramount is still to make an official offer. Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) soars 47% after Walt Disney said it plans to acquire a 2% equity interest in the online comics company.

European gauges slip as investors remain in a wait-and-see mode due to uncertainty over the extent of the Fed’s cuts. Italian banks including UniCredit SpA and Intesa
Sanpaolo SpA edged lower on news that the government is drafting plans to raise another €1.5 billion from lenders. Mining and auto sectors outperformed, while telecoms and insurance shares were the biggest laggards. Trustpilot Group jumped 8% after it reported
revenue for the first half that beat estimates. Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment unexpectedly rose to 37.3 in September, from 34.7 in the previous month. Stoxx 600 -0.25%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.25%. Basic Resources +1.1%, Autos +0.8%, Technology
+0.6%. Insurance -1.3%, Telecom -1%, Banks -0.9%. 

Shares in Asia rose to a fresh intra-day record, propelled by a rally in chip stocks after Beijing’s anti-monopoly ruling on Nvidia Corp. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 0.7%, hitting a record with its best streak in nearly five years. Chinese semiconductor stocks rose after Beijing ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal. Chinese accelerator chip stocks rally after Loongson Technology
announces progress on its latest general-purpose GPU. Nvidia suppliers in Japan and Korea also advanced. Australian uranium stocks climb after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said America should look to increase its strategic uranium reserve. Philippines
+1.5%, Kospi +1.2%, Taiwan +1.1%, Sensex +0.7%, Thailand +0.6%, Hang Seng Tech +0.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Indonesia +0.3%, Shanghai Composite and Singapore were ~flat. Hang Seng Index -0.03%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Vietnam -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are marginally richer on the day across the curve, keeping yields within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. European bonds lag following UK employment
and German ZEW survey data. Focal points of US session include August retail sales and industrial production data and 20-year bond reopening. US 10-year yield is flat at 4.04% and the curve is a tad steeper with 2s10s +1bp.  Ahead of the rate decision, fixed
income investors are adding duration to portfolios. Goldman strategists cautioned that the next pain point for bond traders may come in the five-year part of the curve. Treasury auctions resume with $13 billion 20-year bond reopening.

 

METALS: 

Gold hit an all-time high, boosted by a weaker dollar as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with expectations of an interest rate cut on Wednesday.
Traders are betting that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates next year, which is also supporting gold. Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, combined with central bank buying and inflows into exchange-traded funds, have fueled gold’s rally. Goldman
Sachs predicts bullion could near $5,000 per ounce if just 1% of privately-held Treasuries move into the precious metal. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver +0.3%, Copper futures -0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices edged higher as traders weighed potential supply disruption from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries and the prospect of a US central
bank interest rate cut. Goldman Sachs estimates that the Ukrainian attacks have taken out about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity so far this month. The world must invest $540 billion annually in oil and gas exploration through 2050 to sustain
output, the IEA said. Without new discoveries or demand shifts, supply may shrink by more than 5 million b/d each year — around 40% higher than it was in 2010. Canada approved the $7.3 billion Blackstone-backed LNG export project off its northwest coast. OPEC+
delegates will hold initial discussions about their production capacities at a meeting this week, a step that may ultimately influence how much the alliance allows member nations to pump in future. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas +1.6%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts drove the dollar toward its weakest level since July, with the euro climbing near its highest level
since 2021. The divergence reflects the Fed’s shift toward easing, in sharp contrast with the European Central Bank, where policymakers have signaled an end to their own loosening cycle. Investor confidence in Germany’s economic prospects unexpectedly improved
in September, supporting hopes that Europe’s largest economy is leaving behind a prolonged downturn. Sterling gained as the UK labor market showed stabilizing signs after a slump triggered by higher taxes, leaving the BOE on track to hold rates later this
week. The yen outperformed its Group-of-10 peers during the Asia session after Shinjiro Koizumi, who is seen as less likely to influence the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate path, joined the ruling party’s leadership race. US$ Index -0.3%, GBPUSD +0.35%, EURUSD
+0.45%, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.5%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -0.25%, USDNOK -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.1%, Ethereum -0.2%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $143
    • Cognizant (CTSH) Raised to Buy at Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd; PT $82
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $180
    • Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT $572.46
    • Hershey (HSY) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $222
    • Jumia (JMIA) ADRs Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $15
    • Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $69.59
    • Prologis (PLD) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $130
    • Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $227
    • United Rentals (URI) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $900
  • Downgrades
    • Artis REIT (AX-U CN) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank; PT C$7.50
    • Atyr Pharma (ATYR) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $1.50
    • Berry Corp (BRY) Cut to Hold at Johnson Rice; PT $4
    • Brandywine Realty (BDN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $4
    • CAMP4 Therapeutics (CAMP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Ecovyst Inc (ECVT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $10.50
    • Live Nation (LYV) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $170
    • Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $300
    • Tidewater (TDW) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT $65
    • VF Corp (VFC) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $16
    • Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $14
  • Initiations
    • AIG (AIG) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Allstate (ALL) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $235
    • Aon PLC (AON) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Apple (AAPL) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $290
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Securities
    • Chubb (CB) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $320
    • Clear Secure (YOU) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $45
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $130
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $175
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) Rated New Sector Outperform at 22V Research
    • Equitable Holdings (EQH) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $61
    • Everest Group Ltd (EG) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $287
    • First Horizon (FHN) Rated New Sector Perform at 22V Research; PT $24
    • Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • HP Enterprise (HPE) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $24
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $30
    • IBM (IBM) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $280
    • Klarna Group (KLAR) Rated New Hold at Needham
      • Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $53
    • Kymera (KYMR) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $70
    • Lincoln National (LNC) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • MetLife (MET) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $95
    • Mondi (MNDI LN) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $27.70
    • Ouster (OUST) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $34
    • Progressive (PGR) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Prudential Financial (PRU) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $44
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $120
    • Seagate (STX) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $250
    • Spotify (SPOT) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $900
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein
    • TAT Technologies (TATT) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $44
    • Travelers (TRV) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • TSS (TSSI) Rated New Buy at Singular Research; PT $20.50
    • Unum (UNM) Reinstated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $91
    • W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Webster Financial (WBS) Rated New Sector Perform at 22V Research
    • Western Alliance (WAL) Rated New Sector Perform at 22V Research
    • Western Digital (WDC) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $96
    • Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Rated New Sector Outperform at 22V Research

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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