Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 17, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Housing Starts, Permits; 9:45ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision; 2:00ET FOMC Rate Decision;
2:30ET Fed Chair Powell’s press conference

Highlights and News:  

  • Americans now hold a record $51.2 trillion in corporate equities and mutual fund shares
  • China Tells Tech Companies to Stop Buying Nvidia’s AI Chips: FT
  • ISRAEL:BEGINS INTENSIVE ARMY OPERATION TOWARD HEART OF GAZA CITY
  • Apple’s China Sales Slump Ahead of New iPhone
  • Trump’s second state visit to Britain takes center stage today
  • Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield quit, citing parent Unilever’s silencing of the brand’s social mission
  • A Spirit Airlines jet and Air Force One, carrying the US president to London, got a little too close

 

Global stocks stalled near record highs, seeing muted moves across most asset classes as traders took bets off the table ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest-rate
decision. Bank of England policymakers received another troubling indication of persistent price pressures as they approached their interest rate decision on Thursday. Inflation held at its highest in more than 1 1/2 years in August, reinforcing expectations
that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates on hold at 4%. Food prices drove British inflation to 3.8% in August, offset a drop in airline fares. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5% today, after weak jobs data
and a second-quarter contraction. Bank Indonesia delivered another surprise rate cut, lowering its benchmark to 4.75% in a third straight reduction. Brazil is expected to keep its Selic rate unchanged at 15%.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures fluctuated in quiet trade ahead of the FOMC policy decision. The calm masked the uncertainty over how the Fed would signal the path for rates, with a quarter-point cut
at this meeting and three more by April already priced in. The risk is that policymakers sound less dovish to keep inflation in check. The last meeting saw two governors dissent for the first time since 1993, while Trump appointee Stephen Miran has now joined
the board. Back in June, the Fed penciled in three cuts through the end of 2026, compared to nearly six priced in now by traders.  Nvidia slipped in premarket trading after a Financial Times report that a Chinese watchdog ordered the country’s biggest tech
firms to terminate orders for the RTX Pro 6000D product. Apple’s smartphone sales in China ahead of the iPhone 17 launch fell 6% from the year-earlier period, a deeper slump than is typical ahead of a new flagship product release.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.15%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, Manchester United (MANU), the Premier League’s fallen giant, falls 9% after revenues flat-lined and losses continued to mount. New Fortress Energy
(NFE) shares soar 24%, set to extend Tuesday’s record 45% rally, after billionaire Wes Edens’ firm finalized a seven-year deal worth $4 billion to supply liquefied natural gas to Puerto Rico. Vtex (VTEX), the e-commerce software platform, rises 5% after Jefferies
raised the recommendation to buy. Workday (WDAY) shares are up 9% as Elliott Investment Management says the human-resources software company has made substantial progress in recent years. Analysts were also positive about the company’s outlook. Duolingo (DUOL
-4%) may be misleading its users about the effectiveness of its language learning program, Hungarian competition authority says in statement.

European gauges steadied as investors cautiously awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with the region’s technology sector the biggest outperformer
while autos and banks lag. The Stoxx 600 is flat, while the CAC 40 lags. PZ Cussons shares rise as much as 10%, as they rebound from the lowest level since 2001, after it delivered results mildly ahead of estimates. McBride climbs as much as 17% following
full-year results from the personal care products maker. PostNL shares jump as much as 10% after the delivery company outlined financial goals ahead of its capital markets day. Hexagon Composites shares fall as much as 16% after offering 42 million shares
at a 13.6% discount to Tuesday’s close. Goldman said investors are turning skeptical on European stocks as they wait for Germany to deliver on a promise of sweeping fiscal reform. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX ~flat, CAC -0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.25%. Technology +1.2%, Retail
+1.1%. Autos -1.2%, Banks -1.1%, Energy -1%, Basic Resources -0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index little changed as gains in Hong Kong and mainland China offset losses in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan.
Chinese tech stocks continue their powerful rally to a four-year high even as other regional markets pull back from recent lofty levels. Hang Seng Tech Index surged over 4%. Chinese Internet titans Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest boosts while chipmakers
TSMC and Samsung Electronics lagged. Chinese travel related companies rose after the government released new plans to aid consumption by focusing on services. Japan’s exports fell for a fourth month, with shipments to the US posting the steepest drop in more
than four years. Hang Seng Tech +4.2%, Hang Seng Index +1.8%, Philippines +1%, Indonesia +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Sensex +0.4%, Thailand -0.1%, Nikkei 225 -0.25%, Vietnam -0.6%, ASX 200 -0.7%, Topix -0.7%, Taiwan -0.75%, Kospi -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains led by long-end tenors ahead of Fed rate decision, flattening the curve with 30-year yields lower by around 2.5bp on the day. US market
tracks bull-flattening in European bonds, led by Germany’s, following long-end auctions and UK CPI data. For FOMC rate decision, a 25bp rate cut is fully priced into swaps market. Bond traders are increasing options wagers that the Federal Reserve will deliver
at least one “catch-up” half-point interest-rate cut across this year’s remaining policy meetings. Treasury auctions resume Thursday with $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening; Tuesday’s 20-year bond sale drew good demand.

 

METALS: 

Gold retreated from a record high after briefly breaking through $3,700 an ounce in the previous session. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a quarter-percentage-point
rate cut later in the day. Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also be closely watched for signals on the future path of interest rates. Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to an average of $4,000 per ounce, up from $3,700 prior. Swap
traders are currently pricing in a high chance of two additional cuts before the end of the year, and a solid US retail sales reading on Tuesday did little to move the bets. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -2.1%, Copper futures -2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices eased after rising more than 1% in the previous session, though ongoing geopolitical jitters provided a floor for the market, with traders eyeing an expected
interest rate cut from the Fed. While markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, which could ease borrowing costs and boost fuel demand, traders will closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The market will also be awaiting
data from the US Energy Information Administration – a Reuters poll of nine analysts estimated crude inventories fell while distillate and gasoline stockpiles rose. WTI -0.6%, Brent -0.6%, US Nat Gas +1.2%, RBOB -0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar catches a small bid ahead of today’s widely expected Fed rate cut, while the euro slips from a four-year high. The loonie is a bit
lower ahead of today’s expected rate cut in Canada. Sterling is steady after data showed the UK labor market appears to be past the worst of a slump triggered by higher taxes. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.02%, EURUSD -0.25%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD
-0.1%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.55%.

 

 

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum -0.1%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AbbVie (ABBV) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $270
    • Chewy (CHWY) Raised to Outperform at Baptista Research
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $340
    • Kilroy (KRC) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Kroger (KR) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $75
    • MasTec (MTZ) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $227
    • MP Materials (MP) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
    • Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $1,350
    • Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $67
    • Ormat (ORA) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $102
    • Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $60
    • TMX Group (X CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$70
    • Vtex (VTEX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $6.50
    • Workday (WDAY) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $285
      • Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $235
    • Zillow (ZG) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $105
  • Downgrades
    • American Homes (AMH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Camden Property (CPT) Cut to Sell at Goldman
    • Dayforce (DAY) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $70
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $830
    • FedEx (FDX) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $243
    • Grab Holdings (GRAB) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $6.20
    • Hain Celestial (HAIN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $2
    • HP Enterprise (HPE) Cut to Hold at Baptista Research
    • Merck & Co (MRK) Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $90
    • Progressive (PGR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $250
    • Tenaris (TEN IM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $41
    • TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Vericel (VCEL) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
  • Initiations
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • Avient Corp (AVNT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $48
    • Biohaven (BHVN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $28
    • BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) Rated New Outperform at Leerink
    • C4 Therapeutics (CCCC) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $8
    • Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $100
    • Dollarama (DOL CN) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT C$220
    • Five Below (FIVE) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $160
    • Hagerty (HGTY) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $15
    • Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $47
    • Kymera (KYMR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $60
    • Merus NV (MRUS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $112
    • Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
    • SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $7
    • Scholar Rock (SRRK) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $45
    • StandardAero (SARO) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $34
    • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $13
    • Terns (TERN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $15
    • United Rentals (URI) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $1,044

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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