Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 19, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 9:00ET Trump-Xi Call; 11:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 4:00ET Fed’s
Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump, Xi to Speak in First Direct Talks Since June
  • BOJ to unwind ETF holdings as split board signals hawkish shift
  • India presses ahead with Russian oil buying as Modi, Trump talk
  • US-S.KOREA TRADE TALKS ARE DELAYED BUT STILL ONGOING
  • FED’S KASHKARI: RAPID JOBS SLIDE MORE LIKELY THAN INFLATION SPIKE
  • Apple’s New iPhones Go On Sale Today

 

Global stocks steadied after the Federal Reserve’s first step in a likely series of interest rate cuts propelled markets to fresh highs. The BOJ kept its policy rate
at 0.5%, as expected, but hurt sentiment when it announced a plan to sell its stockpile of ETFs valued at more than 75 trillion yen. Two board members voted against keeping interest rates steady, suggesting the bank would phase out its massive monetary stimulus
sooner than first thought. The hawkish shift surprised markets and led some market players to bet on a rate hike next month. Investors will focus today on the outcome of a scheduled phone call between President Trump and Xi Jinping with the potential for trade
tensions to ease between the world’s two biggest economies. European companies are facing production halts due to shortages of rare earth products from China, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China said.

 

EQUITIES:  Triple Witch 

US equity futures are steady after all four major indices reached record highs ahead of today’s $5 trillion quarterly triple-witching options expiry. Fed President Neel Kashkari said
he supported this week’s rate decision and penciled in two additional cuts this year. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping speak in their first direct talks since June, which may determine the fate of TikTok’s US operations. China has skipped US soybean purchases this
season, using agriculture as trade leverage. FedEx Corp. shares rose more than 5% in premarket trading after an earnings beat and reinstating its full-year sales and profit outlook. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is raising its stake in Jefferies Financial
Group, and the banks will merge equity operations in Japan as their four-year partnership deepens. Early sales across Asia showed strong demand for Apple’s iPhone 17 Pro models.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.15%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, FedEx (FDX) rises 3% after the parcel company reinstated its profit and sales forecasts. Shares of peer United Parcel Service (UPS) are up 1.3%.
Intel (INTC) shares tick 0.4% lower as Citigroup downgrades to sell, pointing to the chipmaker’s rich valuation. Lennar (LEN) is down about 3% after the builder forecast new orders for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Orla Mining
Ltd. (ORLA) slips 4% after Newmont Corp. sold a stake in the company worth C$605.4 million via a non-registered block trade late Thursday. Replimune (REPL) drops 1.7% after JPMorgan downgraded the drug developer to underweight from neutral, citing a challenging
drug approval. Scholastic (SCHL) falls 10% after the publishing company reported a wider adjusted first-quarter loss per share than the same period a year ago.

Growth continues to outperform Value.

European gauges give up early gains to trade mixed with media and technology shares lower while banks outperform. Investors will be awaiting Purchasing Managers’ Index
readings due next week for clues about growth. UK government borrowing hit £18 billion in August, far above forecasts and the highest for the month in five years, posing a challenge for Rachel Reeves ahead of the autumn budget. Among individual names, Man
Group rose as much as 5.4% as UBS upgrades the stock to buy from neutral on a rebound in the group’s AHL strategies. Nexity jumped as much as 13% as Oddo upgrades its rating on the French real estate group to outperform from neutral. Spire Healthcare shares
rise as much as 9% after the company confirmed it has started a process to hold talks with a number of parties on options, including a potential sale. Wickes gains as much as 4.9% after Jefferies initiates coverage of the UK retailer with a buy rating. Kuehne
+ Nagel shares fall as much as 8.2% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the transport company to hold from buy. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Banks +0.75%, Healthcare +0.6%. Media -2%, Technology -0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, wiping out earlier gains, as investor sentiment weakened following the Bank of Japan’s plan to offload its massive exchange-traded
fund holdings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, with TSMC, Sony Group and MediaTek among the biggest drags. Equities in Hong Kong and mainland China were steady after a tech-led selloff in the previous session. Chinese travel stocks rose, as millions
prepare to travel in the upcoming holiday. Shares of Asian memory chipmakers and related suppliers rose as Micron extends winning streak ahead of earnings. Adani Enterprises gained as much as 5.2% after India’s securities market regulator cleared the group’s
billionaire-founder of some allegations of impropriety. Taiwan -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -0.6%, Sensex -0.5%, Kospi -0.5%, Vietnam -0.4%, Thailand -0.3%, Singapore -0.2%. Hang Seng Index ~flat, CSI 300 +0.1%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Hang Seng Tech +0.4%, Philippines +0.5%,
Indonesia +0.5%, New Zealand +0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, following similar price action across European bonds where gilts lag after UK government borrowing exceeded estimates.
Japan’s 2-year yield hits highest since 2008. In the US session, comments are expected from newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who will appear on CNBC and Fox Business.  Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bps across the curve with spreads
trading broadly within a basis point of Thursday’s close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.13%.

 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher as investors awaited further signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut trajectory. Traders are still pricing in almost two more rate cuts
this year, with the expectation of Fed monetary easing a major catalyst in bullion’s 39% surge this year. In corporate news, Zijin Gold International, a unit of China’s top miner, is seeking to raise $3.2 billion for an initial public offering in Hong Kong
that’s poised to be the world’s biggest deal of its kind since May. Trading is set to begin on Sept. 29. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures +0.05%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil slips as the outlook for a global supply surplus outweighs concerns over Russian flows. Brent appears stuck in a narrow band near $67 a barrel, with President
Trump pressing for lower prices while Ukraine escalates strikes on Russian energy facilities. OPEC’s still-accelerating output is adding to expectations of a record 2026 surplus. Indian refiners plan to keep buying Russian crude through year-end despite renewed
trade talks with the US on rising post-monsoon fuel demand, sources said. Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries on Thursday as it steps up its campaign to hit Moscow’s biggest source of funds. Crude processing in the country has now dropped below 5 million
barrels a day, the lowest since April 2022, according to JPMorgan. WTI -0.6%, Brent -0.4%, US Nat Gas -0.3%, RBOB -1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar advances for a third day, setting it on course for its longest winning streak since July. The yen climbed as much as 0.5% following
the BOJ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged but gave up the gain when Governor Kazuo Ueda said he needs more data before deciding next steps. Sterling is headed for its lowest level in a week after government borrowing came in significantly higher
than forecast in August. Data showed the UK budget deficit came in above all forecasts in August, highlighting the fragile condition of UK public finances ahead of the November budget. US$ Index +0.35%, GBPUSD -0.5%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD -0.3%,
NZDUSD -0.35%, USDCHF +0.4%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.8%, USDNOK +0.55%.

 

 

Bitcoin -1%, Ethereum -1.9%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Bill Holdings (BILL) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $63
    • CareRx Corp (CRRX CN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$4.50
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $28
    • EBay (EBAY) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $103
    • Fiverr (FVRR) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $31
    • Intel (INTC) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $43
    • Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Buy at CFRA
    • Klaviyo (KVYO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $50
    • Lincoln National (LNC) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $58
    • PagSeguro (PAGS) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $13
    • SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $160
    • Stellantis (STLA) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $11.20
    • Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $548
  • Downgrades
    • 89bio (ETNB) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $14.50
      • Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Dayforce (DAY) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $70
    • Hess Midstream (HESM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
    • Intel (INTC) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $29
    • LPL Financial (LPLA) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $390
    • McCormick (MKC) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • MetLife (MET) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $84
    • Replimune (REPL) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • UPS (UPS) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $96
  • Initiations
    • Beauty Health (SKIN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $3.50
    • Casella Waste (CWST) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $88
    • Cheniere Energy (LNG) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $268
    • Chord Energy (CHRD) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $120
    • Clean Harbors (CLH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $253
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $165
    • Evertz Technologies (ET CN) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$12
    • Garrett Motion (GTX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $17.50
    • GDI Integrated (GDI CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$35
    • GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $62
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $32
    • Montrose Environmental (MEG) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $35
    • Permian Resources (PR) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Republic Services (RSG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $240
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $185
    • Trip.com (TCOM) ADRs Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Veralto (VLTO) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $120
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $192
    • Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) ADRs Rated New Buy at Guoyuan Securities (HK) Ltd
    • Watts Water (WTS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $287
    • Williams Cos (WMB) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $66
    • WM (WM) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $272
    • WPP (WPP LN) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $29
    • Xylem (XYL) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $165

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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