Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Jobless claims data won’t be released today; 10:00ET Factory Orders, Durable Goods
Orders; 10:30ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump plans to use shutdown to fire federal workers this week
• US Offering Tariff Relief; Trump Admin Pursuing Deals Across up to 30 Industries: RTRS
• OpenAI Valuation Soars to $500B After Share Sale
• TRUMP TO DISCUSS CUTTING AGENCIES AT MEETING WITH VOUGHT TODAY
• McDonald’s is on a quest to open 50,000 restaurants globally

Technology stocks drove global indexes to fresh highs after an OpenAI share sale catapulted the firm to the world’s most valuable startup, bolstering optimism for
artificial intelligence.  OpenAI has completed a deal to help employees sell shares in the company at a $500 billion valuation, making it the world’s largest startup. Tech shares in Asia rallied, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung
and Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centers. Emerging-market stocks advance the most in a month. The EU plans to hike tariffs on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal, aligning the bloc’s rate with the US. The US will give
Ukraine intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, the WSJ reported.  

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures are higher as investors remain unfazed by the US government shutdown, which is halting the release of key economic data. US employers dialed back
hiring plans in September and announced fewer job cuts, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  US employers announced plans to add 117,313 jobs in September, down 71% from a year earlier. Pfizer secured a three-year reprieve
on drug-import tariffs from the Trump administration. Berkshire Hathaway will buy Occidental’s petrochemical business for about $9.7 billion in cash. Pharmaceutical executives are getting near-daily calls from staff at the White House as the administration
seeks deals in 20-30 critical industries that includes taking equity stakes and regulatory relief in exchange for concessions. Tesla rose ~2% pre-market ahead of the company’s third-quarter vehicle deliveries.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI -0.05%

In pre-market trading,  Absci (ABSI) rises 8% after JPMorgan initiates overweight, saying the biotech company’s unique expertise in the computational space could change
how new therapeutics are found. Array Technologies shares (ARRY) fall 3.4% after Barclays cut its recommendation on the solar equipment maker to equal-weight from overweight. Edison International shares (EIX) are down 1.3% after Jefferies downgraded the utility
to hold from buy. Fair Isaac shares (FICO) surged 17% after it announced a new program giving mortgage lenders the option to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to customers. The shares of credit-reporting companies plunged: TransUnion (TRU -10%)
and Equifax (EFX -10%). Fermi shares (FRMI) jump 11%, set to extend gains after the Texas-based real estate investment trust rallied 55% in its market debut on Wednesday. Shoals Technologies Group shares (SHLS) are up 11% after Barclays upgraded the renewable
energy equipment company to overweight from equal-weight.

European gauges extend gains as semiconductor stocks lead a broader market rally, following gains among US peers late in Wednesday’s trading. The Stoxx 600 is near
the highs on the day, setting a fresh intraday all-time high, with technology and auto stocks leading the gains. Among individual names, Siemens AG climbed 2.8% after Bloomberg reported that the firm is exploring spinning off a large part of its majority stake
in Siemens Healthineers AG. Stellantis shares gain as much as 7.6% in Milan after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries. Tesco gained as much as 4.2% after Britain’s biggest supermarket reported first-half profit that beat estimates
and boosted its profit forecast for the year. Morgan Sindall jumps 13% to a record high as the construction group says it is performing “significantly ahead of previous expectations.” Novo Nordisk and Roche were both upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC, while
AbbVie was downgraded to a hold from buy. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +1.4%, CAC +1.4%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Technology +2.8%, Luxury +2.4%, Autos +2.3%. Utilities -1%, Real Estate -0.2%.

Shares in Asia gained, with South Korea leading gains amid OpenAI supply deal. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged to multi-year highs following preliminary
deals by South Korea’s top firms to provide chips for OpenAI’s Stargate project. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%. TSMC was among the biggest contributors, along with Alibaba and SK Hynix.  The Kospi was the region’s top performer, jumping to a fresh
record, following Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s deal to supply chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as trading resumed after a public holiday. Alibaba was among the lead gainers after JPMorgan boosted its price
target by 45%, citing an improved outlook for cloud revenue. Australia’s drone-related shares snap a multi-day rally after calls for an EU “drone wall” garnered a lukewarm reception at the bloc’s summit Wednesday. Mainland China markets remain closed until
next Thursday. Hang Seng Tech +3.4%, Kospi +2.7%, Singapore +1.7%, Hang Seng Index +1.6%, Taiwan +1.5%, ASX 200 +1.1%, Nikkei 225 +0.9%, Indonesia +0.3%. Topix -0.2%, Vietnam -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the curve flatter, pivoting around little-changed 5-year sector, amid similar flattening moves in European bonds following auctions
in France, Spain and UK.  10-year yield around 4.1%; +0.5bps; 2s10s cure -2bps. Second day of US government shutdown is expected to delay release of weekly jobless claims data and, on Friday, September employment report. 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher as the US government shut down and traders added to bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts following weak private payrolls data. Monthly ETF
inflows in September were the largest in three years. Silver rose slightly, after rallying to the highest in 14 years on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs, long bullish on gold, said there’s room for the precious metal to rally even higher than its forecast, citing
interest from private investors. Copper firms as investors weigh global supply disruptions and the prospect that lower interest rates will help boost demand for the industrial metal. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures +2%.

ENERGY:   

WTI slips toward $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut. Macquarie
Group says oil faces “punishing oversupply” and $50 prices. Rystad sees China’s crude stockpiling slowing in 2026, with refiners wary about being hit by sanctions for taking oil from Iran and Russia. OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000
bpd in November, triple the increase made for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said. However, OPEC wrote on X that media reports of plans to raise output by 500,000 bpd were misleading. WTI -0.5%,
Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -0.5%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus G-10 peers as investors tread cautiously, weighing private jobs data amid a likely delay in official figures due to
the US government shutdown. Aussie$ inches lower after Australia’s household spending came in weaker than expected in August, adding to the case for the Reserve Bank to resume policy easing as soon as next month. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.03%, EURUSD +0.2%,
USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK +0.2%.

Bitcoin +1.2%, Ethereum +1.3%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• American Homes (AMH) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $38
• Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $105
• Celanese (CE) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $53
• Charles River (CRL) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Corteva (CTVA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $70
• Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $112
• Dell Technologies (DELL) Raised to Buy at GF Securities; PT $175
• Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Buy at HSBC
• Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $53
• Nike (NKE) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $90
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $70
• Roche (ROG SW) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
• Shoals Technologies (SHLS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $10
• Downgrades
• American Tower (AMT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $220
• Array (ARRY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $9
• Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $32
• Barry Callebaut (BARN SW) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $15.10
• Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $79
• Corteva (CTVA) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $67
• Edison International (EIX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $57
• Electronic Arts (EA) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $210
• Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $210
• Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$322
• Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Cut to Sell at Canaccord; PT C$6.50
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $70
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• MRC Global (MRC) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna
• Olin (OLN) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $25
• OR Royalties (OR CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$56
• RH (RH) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Triple Flag (TFPM CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$42
• Initiations
• Absci (ABSI) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• Cadence Design (CDNS) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $400
• CAMP4 Therapeutics (CAMP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $7
• Carriage Services (CSV) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $60
• Context Therapeutics (CNTX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Corsair Gaming (CRSR) Rated New Neutral at B Riley; PT $10
• EHang Holdings (EH) ADRs Rated New Buy at DBS Bank; PT $28
• Interfor (IFP CN) Resumed Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$12
• Mercury Systems (MRCY) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT $88
• Option Care Health (OPCH) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $30
• Ramaco (METC) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $50
• Schneider Electric (SU FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
• Symbotic (SYM) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $65
• Turtle Beach (TBCH) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $21

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke