Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC; 9:30ET Fed’s Miran on Bloomberg TV; 9:45ET S&P Global US Services
PMI/Composite PMI; 10:00ET ISM Services Index, ISM Services Prices Paid/New Orders/Employment; 1:00ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 1:40ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks on economy; 3:30ET Fed’s Miran on Fox Business

Senator Elizabeth Warren calls on the Trump Administration to deem BLS employees essential and release the jobs report

Highlights and News:  

• Global stocks are at record highs as the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence extends to Asia
• Russia carried out its largest attack on Ukraine’s gas network since the war started
• Fire At US West Coast’s Most Important Refinery Contained
• FDA: FASTER REVIEWS FOR COMPANIES TESTING, MAKING DRUGS IN US
• TRUMP ADMIN. FREEZES $2.1B IN CHICAGO INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
• Cubs win 1st postseason series win since 2017!!

Global stocks edge higher, poised for strong weekly gains and more record highs, fueled by an unrelenting tech stock rally and expectations of lower US interest rates,
despite uncertainties surrounding a potential US government shutdown. Traders now almost fully price another rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month after downbeat economic data. Asian technology stocks led the charge as Japan’s Hitachi teamed up with
OpenAI on energy and related infrastructure, while Fujitsu expanded its collaboration with Nvidia. Meanwhile, Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers, a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom. French Prime Minister
Sebastien Lecornu meets with lawmakers for crunch talks as he struggles to find enough support to pass the 2026 budget and remain in office. Gulf nations look increasingly likely to push ahead with President Trump’s plan for Gaza regardless of whether Hamas
accepts it or not. A senior Hamas official said the Palestinian militant group will respond to Trump’s pro-Israel plan to end the war in Gaza “very soon.”

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures nudge higher amid similar gains for European stocks as tech-fueled rally continues. Investors have mostly shrugged off the shutdown but won’t get
to see the important monthly US payrolls figures. The Senate is expected to vote again this afternoon to end the shutdown, but that comes too late for the September nonfarm payrolls employment data, which will be postponed. The St. Louis Federal Reserve is
expected to update its gross domestic product Nowcast estimate for Q3 around midday. he White House has compiled a list of agencies it plans to target for federal firings and is expected to announce it as soon as today.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.15%

In pre-market trading,  Applied Materials (AMAT) is down 2.6% after the semiconductor-equipment maker said net revenue for FY 2026 is set to decrease by $600 million
due to a new rule by the US Department of Commerce. Apple (AAPL) shares are down 0.9% in premarket trading, after Jefferies downgraded the iPhone maker to underperform from hold on excessive iPhone hopes.  Maplebear (CART), doing business as Instacart, falls
1% after a Piper Sandler analyst cut his recommendation on the delivery-services provider to neutral from overweight, citing intensifying competitive pressures. Tronox Holdings (TROX) is down 2.7% as JPMorgan downgrades to neutral from overweight. Baidu Inc.
US shares (BIDU) are up 1.2% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the China-based search engine to $140 from $100. USA Rare Earth (USAR) rises 8.9% after CNBC reported that the company is in close communication with the Trump administration, when
asked whether the company would be open to a deal with the US government.

SMH: most overbought since September 2017.

Shares in Asia rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.7%, taking its weekly advance to 2.7%. Japan was among the region’s top gainers ahead of the ruling
party’s leadership election this weekend. Japanese and Taiwanese tech stocks lead Asian gains as the AI frenzy continues. Hitachi jumped 10% on a new strategic partnership with OpenAI. Hang Seng slides as Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong take a breather following
a powerful three-day surge. BYD leads Chinese electric vehicle shares in Hong Kong lower, with sentiment clouded by Tesla’s stock selloff in the US amid concerns over the global EV demand outlook. South Korea and China were closed for holidays.  Looking ahead,
key events next week include monetary policy decisions in New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. China’s markets will reopen Thursday following the Golden Week holiday. Nikkei 225 +1.9%, Taiwan +1.5%, Philippines +1.1%, Indonesia +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.5%,
Thailand +0.4%, Sensex +0.3%. Vietnam -0.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are mixed and within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels as US session gets under way, with government shutdown in its third day to postpone
the release of September employment report. Services gauges from S&P Global and ISM are unaffected, however, and several Fed officials are slated to speak. 10-year yield is almost 1bp lower at 4.08%: curve is flatter. 2s10s -1.5bps.

METALS: 

Gold inches higher, headed for a seventh weekly advance as the US government shutdown added another layer of uncertainty for investors seeking signals on the Federal
Reserve’s monetary-easing path. For all the hype over artificial intelligence and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better buy. A gauge of the world’s gold equities from MSCI Inc. has soared about 135% this year.  Spot
gold +0.1%, Silver +1.3%, Copper futures +1.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edge higher on positive risk sentiment but remained on course for a weekly loss of about 8% after news of potential increases to OPEC+ supply. Traders
are in a wait-and-see mode for what the OPEC+ Group of Eight will decide over the weekend. OPEC+ could agree to raise production in November by 274,000-411,000 barrels per day, or two or three times higher than the October increase, sources told Reuters on
Tuesday, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share. JPMorgan analysts said they believed that September marked a turning point, with the oil market heading towards a sizeable surplus in the fourth quarter and into next year. Elsewhere, a fire broke out
at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery overnight, though a county official said the flames had been confined to one area. The refinery is one of the largest on the US West Coast.  WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas -1.2%, RBOB +0.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is slightly lower as the US government shutdown extends into its third day. Euro zone services sector PMIs helped the euro tick up
as they accelerated to an eight-month high thanks to moderate growth in Germany, Italy and Spain, although France’s political uncertainty continued to weigh there. The UK’s services PMI declined in September but remained above the breakeven point, according
to data released earlier. The yen reversed early gains after BOJ Governor Ueda reiterates policy stance and avoids clear October hike signals. Yen is still headed for its best week in four months ahead of an election to choose the next leader of the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY +0.03%, AUDUSD +0.15%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.03%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.35%.

Bitcoin -0.25%, Ethereum -0.25%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Coinbase (COIN) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $417
• Curbline Properties (CURB) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Delek US Holdings (DK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Duke Energy (DUK) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $137
• Entergy (ETR) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $105
• Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $490.28
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $48
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $212
• Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $45
• Occidental (OXY) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $60
• Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $55
• Schneider National (SNDR) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $25
• TD Bank (TD CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$120
• Woodward (WWD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $300
• Zillow (ZG) Raised to Buy at Gordon Haskett
• Downgrades
• Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$163
• Blackberry (BB CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$6.98
• Bumble (BMBL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $7
• Celestica (CLS CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$332.41
• Corteva (CTVA) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• DTE Energy (DTE) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $147
• Fastenal (FAST) Cut to Strong Sell at CFRA
• Hecla Mining (HL) Cut to Sell at Roth Capital Partners; PT $8.75
• Instacart (CART) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $41
• Open Text (OTEX CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$55.87
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• PBF Energy (PBF) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
• RLJ Lodging (RLJ) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $7.50
• Southern Co (SO) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $99
• Tronox (TROX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Valero Energy (VLO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $175
• Veeco Instruments (VECO) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Initiations
• Ameriprise (AMP) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $525
• Apollo Global (APO) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $132
• BlackRock (BLK) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $1,280
• Blackstone (BX) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $190
• Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $18
• BNY Mellon (BK) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $125
• Canada Packers (CPKR CN) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT C$20
• Carlyle Group (CG) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $74
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Cognyte (CGNT) Reinstated Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $14
• Evercore (EVR) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $358
• Franklin Resources (BEN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $26
• Gen Digital (GEN) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $31
• Goldman Sachs (GS) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $785
• Hagerty (HGTY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $13
• Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $150
• Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $230
• I-Mab (IMAB) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $9
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $82
• Invesco (IVZ) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $28
• Janus Henderson (JHG) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $52
• Jefferies (JEF) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $69
• KKR & Co. (KKR) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $148
• Lazard (LAZ) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $56
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $365
• Moelis & Co (MC) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $74
• Morgan Stanley (MS) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $180
• Northern Trust (NTRS) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $142
• Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group
• PJT Partners (PJT) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $205
• Raymond James (RJF) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $180
• Red Cat (RCAT) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $17
• RLI (RLI) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $62
• Schwab (SCHW) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $110
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Resumed Hold at TD Cowen
• State Street (STT) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $130
• StepStone (STEP) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $74
• Stifel Financial (SF) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $121
• T. Rowe (TROW) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $108
• TPG (TPG) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $65
• Uber (UBER) Rated New Buy at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $139
• WEC Energy (WEC) Rated New Buy at Citi

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke