Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 7, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 10:00ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 10:05ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 10:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 11:30ET
Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 12:10ET ECB’s Lagarde speaks; 1:00ET 3-Year Note Auction; 4:05ET Fed’s Miran speaks

US economic calendar — still subject to delays from the ongoing government shutdown — includes August trade balance (8:30am), New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and consumer
credit (3pm).

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney today
  • Trump Opens Door to Talks GOP Has Resisted
  • Intercontinental Exchange Near Deal to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket – WSJ
  • Trump Eyes Health Care Talks With Democrats to End Shutdown
  • Tesla May Unveil Cheaper Version of the Model Y
  • Federal officials warn certain HelloFresh meals may contain spinach contaminated with listeria

 

Global stocks struggled for direction as investors awaited political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the week-old U.S. government shutdown
rumbled on, with little sign of the impasse breaking. And in Japan, investors snapped up a sale of government debt, in a sign of easing nervousness after Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of low rates and high spending, was elected leader of the ruling party. France
is now likely to miss a deadline to present its 2026 budget bill, meaning lawmakers will need to pass emergency stopgap legislation to authorize spending from January 1 until a full budget is approved. The World Bank lifted its forecasts for Chinese growth
in 2025 and for much of the region, although it warned of slowing momentum next year. Data showed German industrial orders unexpectedly fell in August, dragged lower by weak automotive industry and a decline in overseas demand. Elsewhere, a senior Hamas official
said, “President Trump’s plan is mainly an Israeli plan” but emphasized that Hamas wants to end the war.

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures waver as the Federal government shutdown entered a seventh day, depriving investors and policy makers of key data to gauge the health of the economy.
Trump suggested he might be open to resolving the shutdown standoff by negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies, but later said he’d only talk once the government reopened. A flurry of AI-related deals among chipmakers has propelled shares higher
and fueled some concerns of a speculative bubble reminiscent of the late-1990s dot-com era. Intercontinental Exchange is in talks to invest $2 billion in Polymarket in a deal that could value the popular crypto-based prediction market at as much as $10 billion.
The deal could come as soon as today. The US will take a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals to secure critical mineral projects in Alaska. Shares soared more than 190% in premarket trading. Tesla plans to unveil a cheaper version of the Model Y today, people familiar
said, trimming features and premium materials to offset the loss of a US federal tax credit.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises 3%, set to extend Monday’s rally, as Jefferies upgrades to buy following the chipmaker’s deal with OpenAI.
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) falls 21% after the maker of semiconductor equipment posted fiscal first-quarter revenue that fell from the year-ago period. Amkor (AMKR) is up 10% after the company broke ground on an outsourced semiconductor advanced packaging and
test campus in Arizona. Constellation Brands (STZ) is up 3% after the owner of the Corona and Modelo Especial brands in the US reported comparable earnings per share for the second quarter that beat. IBM (IBM) rises 4% after the technology firm said it will
integrate Anthropic’s Claude family of large language models into its software portfolio. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, climbs 3% amid plans to invest $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform. Trilogy
Metals (TMQ) gains 220% as the White House said US will take a 10% stake in the small-cap mineral exploration company.

European gauges reverse early losses to trade slightly higher as investors looked for updates on the political crisis in France. CAC 40 leads gains as President Emmanuel
Macron made a last-ditch effort to salvage the government after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation on Monday. Truckmakers including fell after President Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy-duty trucks would begin next month. HelloFresh shares
drop as much as 7% after the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service issued a public health alert concerning their ready-to-eat meals. Shell gains after signaling a rebound in energy trading, while Kering rises over 6% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade. NKT
jumps to a record high after Jefferies raises its recommendation on the Danish energy transmission firm to buy. CVS Group shares rise as much as 10% after the UK veterinary service and animal medicines company reported full-year results. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX
+0.1%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Luxury +1.5%, Personal Goods +1.2%, Chemicals +0.7%. Media -1.1%, Healthcare -0.3%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher while China, Hong Kong and South Korea markets were closed for a holiday. Japanese markets failed to hold initial gains amid an indecisive
mood across global peers. Japan’s household spending rose for a fourth month, +2.3% from a year ago in August, showing resilience amid persistent inflation. Tech-heavy Taiwan shares were among key gainers, while gauges in Thailand and Philippines were not
far behind. Chip stocks including TSMC and Advantest were key gainers after OpenAI agreed to deploy six gigawatts’ worth of AMD graphics processing units over multiple years. Australian stocks fell, bucking the broader region’s advance. A financial regulator
approved Cboe Global Markets’ application to conduct local stock listings, spurring a decline in shares of the nation’s main exchange operator ASX Ltd. Stocks in India rallied for fourth straight session as the central bank’s recent credit easing measure boost
local lenders. Taiwan +1.7%, Thailand +1.5%, Philippines +1.4%, Singapore +1.1%, Indonesia +0.4%, Sensex +0.2%, Topix +0.05%. ASX 200 -0.3%, Vietnam -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields inched higher as the US government shutdown dragged on. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, first of this week’s three coupon
sales, and several Fed speakers. US yields are roughly 1bp cheaper on the day across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s mostly flat.  Treasury auction cycle begins today with $58 billion 3-year new issue, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year
reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. 

 

METALS: 

Gold fluctuates in choppy trade after hitting an all-time high of $3,977.19 an ounce, driven by strong investment demand amid broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs Group raised its price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 an ounce, up from $4,300, analysts said in a note, citing ETF inflows and central-bank buying. China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in September for the 11th straight month,
data from the People’s Bank of China showed. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.2%, Copper futures +0.6%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are steady as investors assessed a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ against the backdrop of oversupply expectations. OPEC+ did not discuss
increasing quotas after November, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. WTI -0.15%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas +2.6%, RBOB +0.02%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is better bid against all FX majors while the yen struggled at two-month lows, prompting a warning from Finance Minister Katsunobu
Kato about excess volatility. Yen is adding to Monday’s sharp losses on bets that Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance would result in a slower timeline for the Bank of Japan’s policy tightening which could tempt traders back into the yen carry trade. The
euro is weaker as French political risks remain front and center. Outgoing PM Lecornu has been instructed by Macron to hold final discussion with political parties to see if there is a way forward. French Far-Right Party National Rally’s Jordan Bardella And
Marine Le Pen have declined PM Lecornu’s invitation to take part in talks. Kiwi leads G-10 losses after a report showed New Zealand business confidence dipped in the third quarter. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD
-0.6%, USDCHF +0.5%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.15%, USDNOK +0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum +0.2%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $300
    • Banc of California (BANC) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $20
    • Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
    • Brinker (EAT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $175
    • Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
    • Comerica (CMA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $83
    • Edwards Life (EW) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $88
    • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Emcor (EME) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $675
    • Fifth Third (FITB) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60
    • First Financial (FFBC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $30
    • Fulton Financial (FULT) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $21
    • Hologic (HOLX) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $78
    • MidCap Financial (MFIC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
    • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) US Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $18.50
    • Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $1,385
    • ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
    • Smurfit WestRock (SW) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52
    • Veeva (VEEV) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $380
  • Downgrades
    • ACNB (ACNB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Autoliv (ALV) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $124
    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT C$184
    • Capital Southwest (CSWC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • CarMax (KMX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $42
    • D.R. Horton (DHI) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $105
    • GE Healthcare (GEHC) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $83
    • Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $52
    • HBT Financial (HBT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • KB Home (KBH) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Mattr Corp (MATR CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$11.25
    • Meritage Homes (MTH) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • OneMain (OMF) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $57
    • Oportun (OPRT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
    • PennyMac (PFSI) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $129
    • PulteGroup (PHM) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • QuidelOrtho (QDEL) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $33
    • SLM (SLM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $29
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $75
    • Toll Brothers (TOL) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • TrueCar (TRUE) Cut to Hold at Needham
  • Initiations
    • AES Corp (AES) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $15
    • Alphabet (GOOGL) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $285
    • American Electric Power (AEP) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI
    • Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
      • Rated New Outperform at William Blair
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
      • Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $24
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $32
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $27
    • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $8.50
    • Brilliant Earth Group (BRLT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $3
    • Capital Power (CPX CN) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT C$80
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $42
    • Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $32
    • Con Edison (ED) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $106
    • Dominion Energy (D) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $67
    • Duke Energy (DUK) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $143
    • Entergy (ETR) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $98
    • Exelon (EXC) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $57
    • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $37
      • Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $31
      • Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $42
      • Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
      • Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $26
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $41
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
      • Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $27
    • IPG Photonics (IPGP) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $96
    • Legence (LGN) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $38
      • Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $41
      • Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $40
      • Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $40
      • Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $40
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $34
      • Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $35.50
      • Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $36
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $36
      • Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $34
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $37
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $36
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Rated New Buy at Clarksons; PT C$26
    • Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $290
    • Micron (MU) Rated New Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $249
    • Mount Logan Capital (MLCI) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
    • Netflix (NFLX) Rated New Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $1,514
    • NextEra Energy (NEE) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $92
    • Nexxen (NEXN) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $13
    • NiSource (NI) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $45
    • Northview Residential REIT (NRR-U CN) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$18
    • OneSpaWorld (OSW) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $28
    • Paychex (PAYX) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $135
    • PPL (PPL) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $43
    • PSEG (PEG) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $83
    • Rogers (ROG) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $97
    • Seadrill (SDRL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $33
    • Sempra (SRE) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $105
    • Soleno (SLNO) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $125
    • Southern Co (SO) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $103
    • Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Spire (SR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $92
    • Taboola (TBLA) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • TKO (TKO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $235
    • Via Transportation (VIA) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $60
      • Reinstated Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $59
      • Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $55
      • Rated New Outperform at William Blair
      • Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $60
      • Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
      • Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $55
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $58
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $50
    • Willow Lane Acquisition (WLACU) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $15
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $92

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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