Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:20ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:00ET 10-Year Note Auction;
2:00ET FOMC Meeting Minutes; 3:15ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 4:30ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 5:45ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 7:15ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Hamas, Israel Upbeat as Top Teams Join Talks on Ending Gaza War
• Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner say they will not leave Egypt until Hamas releases all the hostages
• RBNZ cuts rates 50bps in a surprise move
• EU Sees New US Trade Demands Hollowing Out Trump Deal
• Nvidia CEO says “super excited about the financing” being done by Elong Musk’s startup xAI
• Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff in Focus as Bank Reserves Are Ebbing
• Vietnam officials plan more trade talks in the US in October

Global shares inched higher as investors embraced the possibility of lower interest rates, shrugging off political drama in France and Japan.  Outgoing French Prime
Minister Sebastien Lecornu said a deal could potentially be reached on the country’s budget by year-end, making the risk of a snap election more remote. European Union officials see new US demands for trade concessions as potentially undercutting the recent
agreement that brought the allies back from the brink of a trade war. Hamas said it has exchanged a list of the names of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be released under a swap deal and that it was optimistic about talks in Egypt on President
Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza. One of the biggest sticking points will be pressure on Hamas to disarm, an issue it has so far been unwilling to discuss at the talks. Encouraged by the apparent progress toward implementing Trump’s 20-point proposal, the
US sent special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser Jared Kushner to the talks. Witkoff and Kushner say they will not leave Egypt until Hamas releases all the hostages.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures tick up as investors cast aside worries about lofty valuations as investors awaited commentary from Federal Reserve speakers and the release of minutes from the central
bank’s September policy meeting. S&P 500 snapped an eight-day winning streak on Tuesday as worries are mounting that the benchmark’s $16 trillion rally since its April lows may have overextended. “While it appears we are not in a bubble yet, high levels of
market concentration and increased competition in the AI space suggest investors should continue to focus on diversification,” Goldman Sachs strategists said. Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $20 billion, including $2 billion from Nvidia, to finance AI chips for
its Colossus 2 project. Google is set to invest $10 billion to establish a data center cluster in India. SoftBank will buy ABB’s industrial robots unit at an enterprise value of almost $5.4 billion. Remarks from the Fed’s Musalem, Barr, Logan, Goolsbee and
Kashkari are on deck.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.25%

In pre-market trading, precious metals miners climb after spot gold rallied past $4,000 an ounce for the first time.  AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rises 9% after announcing
a pact with Verizon to provide direct-to-cellular AST SpaceMobile service when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026. CervoMed (CRVO) soars 16% after announcing that its Phase 2b trial demonstrated neflamapimod’s potential as a treatment for dementia.
Confluent (CFLT) gains 17% as Reuters reports that the data-infrastructure company is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest. Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) falls 3% after Equifax said its VantageScore 4.0 service will offer mortgage credit scores
at $4.50 through the end of 2027. Joby Aviation (JOBY) is down 10% after offering $500 million in shares via Morgan Stanley. Penguin Solutions (PENG) shares drop 23% after the company’s FY26 sales guidance range fell short. QuantumScape (QS) rises 5% after
the maker of lithium-metal batteries entered a joint-development agreement with Murata Manufacturing Co. Rocket Lab (RKLB) rises 6% after the company said it signed a contract with iQPS to launch three more satellites for the Japanese company.

Broadcom relative to SMH: held the 200dma key support yesterday.

European gauges extend gains after outgoing French Prime Minister Lecornu said he saw a possible path to end the political deadlock. The Stoxx 600 is near highs for
the day, on track for another record close. Luxury, miners and defense shares are offsetting a drop in autos, led by an 8% decline in BMW after the German luxury carmaker cut its 2025 earnings forecast. German industry production fell the most since early
2022, driven by an auto production plunge. Among individual names, Umicore shares rise as much as 8% after announcing it will sell permanently tied-up gold inventories, strengthening its balance sheet. Marston shares gain as much as 11% following a trading
update from the UK pub company. Addnode gains as much as 13% following an upgrade to buy from hold at Pareto Securities. Aryzta shares fall over 11% after the Swiss baker issued a profit warning and said it replaced its CEO. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.6%, CAC
+0.8%, FTSE 100 +0.8%. Luxury +1.5%, Basic Resources +1.4%, Aero & Defense +1.2%. Autos -1.8%, Technology -0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, driven by losses in technology shares on fresh concerns over the justification for the artificial intelligence boom. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index fell 0.7%, with TSMC, Alibaba and SoftBank among the biggest drags. Investors turned cautious after the Information reported that Oracle may post a disappointing profit margin for the latest quarter, spurring a selloff in Asian tech shares. Hong
Kong led losses as the market reopened after a holiday. Vietnam’s benchmark briefly surged as much as 3% before paring much of the gain, after FTSE Russell upgraded it to emerging market status from frontier. New Zealand’s key stock index extended gains after
the central bank cut interest rates more aggressively than expected and said it’s open to further reductions. The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly held its key interest rate. Japanese shares were mixed after data showed Japan’s wages rose at the slowest pace
in three months, highlighting a challenge for newly elected ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi who has pledged to address the increase in living costs. Mainland China and South Korea markets were closed for holidays. Hang Seng Tech -1.9%, Taiwan -0.5%, Hang
Seng Index -0.5%, Nikkei 225 -0.45%, Singapore -0.4%, Sensex -0.2%, ASX 200 -0.1%. Topix +0.25%, Philippines +0.25%, Vietnam +0.75%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries bull-flatten into early US session with long-end yields richer by around 3.5bp on the day, following similar price action in European bonds. French bonds
advanced during London morning after caretaker prime minister struck a note of optimism on the budget before starting a final day of talks to form a government. US session includes 10-year note auction and minutes of September FOMC meeting.  With US front-end
yields little changed, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are flatter by 1.5bp-2bp; 10-year near 4.1% is 2bp lower on the day. Prolonged funding pressures in US money markets, just as bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve are dwindling, suggest the central bank may
be getting closer to ending the unwinding of its massive portfolio of securities.

METALS: 

Gold surged above $4,000 an ounce, with its 53% gain this year putting the traditional safe haven on course for its strongest annual advance since 1979. Strategists
at Macquarie Group, said gold’s rally is the collective “hedge” against the prospective failure of Wall Street’s AI-driven tech boom. India’s physically backed ETFs saw their largest monthly inflow in September as investors flocked to the precious metal amid
weak stock market returns. Central banks worldwide are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, their fourth year of massive purchases as they diversify reserves from dollar-denominated assets into bullion, consultancy Metals Focus said. Silver climbed
to its highest level since April 2011. Spot gold +1.5%, Silver +2.4%, Copper futures +0.7%. Gold futures most overbought since August 2020.

ENERGY:   

Oil rose as traders brushed off concerns over excess supply this year. Goldman Sachs says the global oil market faces an average surplus of 2m b/d this quarter and
through 2026, leading to rising stockpiles and lower prices. Exxon is considering re-entering Iraq by signing agreements to explore the country’s giant Majnoon field. Investors are awaiting US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration later
today. US oil production is likely to set a larger record this year than previously expected, the EIA said on Tuesday. WTI +1.5%, Brent +1.3%, US Nat Gas +1.2%, RBOB +1.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar gained for a third day against major peers while the yen hit eight-month lows as investors await word from prime minister-in-waiting
Sanae Takaichi on her plans for spending and the economy. The yen is down over 3% this week, on pace for its steepest weekly decline in a year. Kiwi declines to a six-month low after the central bank slashed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points and kept the
door open for further easing. US$ Index +0.25%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.55%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF %, USDCAD %, USDSEK %, USDNOK %.

Bitcoin +0.8%, Ethereum -0.4%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $250
• Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $260
• Anglo American (AAL LN) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $20
• ArcBest (ARCB) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $89
• Axis Capital (AXS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $123
• BOK Financial (BOKF) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $135
• EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $34
• First Majestic (AG CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$22
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $48
• Ionis Pharma (IONS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $80
• Kaspi.kz (KSPI KZ) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $107
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $700
• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $109
• Penumbra (PEN) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $326
• RWE (RWE GR) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $53.30
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Stifel Financial (SF) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $131
• Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$101
• Downgrades
• Allied Properties REIT (AP-U CN) Cut to Underperform at National Bank
• C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $148
• Danaher (DHR) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $220
• Dye & Durham (DND CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14.50
• Edwards Life (EW) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• FedEx (FDX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $274
• Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Glencore (GLEN LN) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $9.30
• Incyte (INCY) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer; PT $82
• Intel (INTC) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $24
• Kratos (KTOS) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $105
• Lantheus (LNTH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $77
• MSC Industrial (MSM) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$65
• Vivo (VIVT3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Initiations
• Aecom (ACM) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT $151
• Agilent (A) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $165
• Alcoa (AA) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
• Amazon (AMZN) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $300
• Amphenol (APH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Atlantic Union (AUB) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $42
• Bentley Systems (BSY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Canada Packers (CPKR CN) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$18
• Century Aluminum (CENX) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
• CG Oncology (CGON) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $90
• Cognex (CGNX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $230
• Constellium SE (CSTM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
• CRH (CRH) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $135
• Eagle Materials (EXP) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $261
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Reinstated Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $40
• FirstEnergy (FE) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $53
• Freeport (FCX) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
• Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $19
• Highwoods (HIW) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $38
• IBM (IBM) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Impinj (PI) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $90
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $250
• Martin Marietta (MLM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $620
• MDA Space (MDA CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$48
• Millrose Properties (MRP) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Olema Pharma (OLMA) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $20
• Pool Corp (POOL) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
• Russel Metals (RUS CN) Resumed Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$48
• ScanSource (SCSC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $43
• Sensata (ST) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Six Flags (FUN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $28
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $121
• Symbotic (SYM) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $38
• TE Connectivity (TEL) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Teledyne (TDY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Tetra Tech (TTEK) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT $41
• Trimble (TRMB) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $63
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $311
• Waters (WAT) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $390
• Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN) Rated New Neutral at CIBC; PT C$24
• WW Grainger (GWW) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $963

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke