Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 14, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:45ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 12:20ET Fed’s Powell speaks on economic outlook and monetary
policy; 1:00ET Trump to meet with Argentina’s Milei at White House; 3:25ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Collins speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Risk Sentiment Worsens as US-China Tensions Mount: China Hits Back at US on Shipping
  • China vowed to “fight to the end” in a tariff and trade war
  • JPMorgan Kicks Off Earnings Season With Another Stellar Quarter
  • Bessent slams China: ‘They want to pull everybody else down with them’
  • Trump’s lumber tariffs take effect today
  • A record 54% of global fund managers said AI stocks are in a bubble: BofA survey

 

Global stocks fell after China hit back at the US with shipping curbs. China escalated its trade dispute with the US, raising new worries about Beijing-Washington
tensions, especially as markets appear overextended following a strong rally. As negotiations between the US and China intensify, the two nations will begin from today charging port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from toys to crude oil.
Meanwhile, Japan’s main opposition parties are discussing the possibility of uniting against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi in a vote that could oust the party from government. Elsewhere, UK unemployment rose to 4.8% in the three
months through August, the highest since May 2021, and wage growth slowed to 4.4% in the private sector.    

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are sharply lower after China placed limits on five US entities tied to one of South Korea’s biggest shipbuilders and threatened further retaliation. Bank earnings will
be in focus today, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan all reporting. Fed’s Powell is due to speak on economic outlook and monetary policy mid-day, and his commentary will be crucial amid a lack of hard data. Investors have turned overweight on US equities
for the first time since February, while recession concerns fell to the lowest since 2022, according to a global survey by Bank of America. Fund managers are now a net 1% overweight US stocks compared with 14% underweight in the September survey. More than
half of fund managers in Bank of America’s latest survey think there’s a bubble in the AI sector. In corporate news, Google aims to invest about $15 billion building an AI infrastructure hub in southern India over the next five years. Goldman posted record
3Q revenues, while JPMorgan soared past estimates for trading and investment-banking fees — with both banks benefitting from a resurgence in dealmaking.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.1%, Russell 2000 -1.1%, DJI -0.7%.

In pre-market trading, US-listed critical mineral companies are extending gains after China hits US with more retaliatory measures on the shipping industry. Astria
(ATXS) shares rose 30% following a brief halt after BioCryst announced plans to buy the biopharmaceutical company.  General Motors Co. (GM) falls 1.8% as the company is incurring $1.6 billion in charges related to paring back electric-vehicle production plans.
Polaris (PII) climbs 8% after saying it will separate Indian Motorcycle into a standalone company and entered a definitive agreement to sell a majority stake to Carolwood LP. Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) jumps 24% after unveiling its high voltage devices for
Nvidia’s 800 VDC AI factory architecture. Rayonier Inc. (RYN) and PotlatchDeltic Corp. (PCH) agreed to combine their businesses, creating a major US timberland owner and lumber manufacturer with a market capitalization of $7.1 billion. Rayonier +1%, PotlatchDeltic
+5%. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) climbs 2.6% after raising a key profitability metric. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is slightly lower even after exceeded analysts’ estimates for third-quarter trading and investment-banking fees, driven by a pickup in dealmaking and underwriting.
Citigroup is +0.7% after reporting. Its traders delivered best third quarter ever as volatility lingers.

AVGO/SMH: held the
200dma last week which has been pivotal in the pair.
50dma is first key resistance.

 

 

 

 

Shares in Asia were sharply lower on broad worries over US-China trade frictions as well as losses in Japan, where political uncertainty dragged shares lower after
a long weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%, for a third day of declines, with Chinese tech names among the biggest drags. The Hang Seng Tech Index entered a technical correction after the gauge fell more than 10% from a high on Oct. 2. China imposed
curbs on five US units of Korean firm Hanwha Ocean in response to US probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both slumped at least 2% each as trading resumed following Monday’s holiday.  Meanwhile,
LG Electronics India soared in its Mumbai trading debut after investors flocked to the firm’s initial public offering. Samsung shares fell 3.8%, despite the company reporting its biggest quarterly profit in more than three years, with some investors cashing
in on its recent AI-mania fueled gains. Hang Seng Tech -3.6%, Nikkei 225 -2.6%, Topix -2%, Indonesia -1.95%, Hang Seng Index -1.7%, Thailand -1.6%, CSI 300 -1.2%, Singapore -0.8%, Kospi -0.6%, Taiwan -0.5%, Sensex -0.35%, Vietnam -0.2%. ASX 200 +0.2%, Philippines
+0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down briefly as much as 4 bps to below 4%. Gilts lead an advance in European government bonds after the UK unemployment
rate unexpectedly rose, prompting traders to boost BOE easing bets. US long end is steady while 2-year yield is down 3bps. 10-year yield is 2bps lower at 4.2% Tuesday’s US session highlights include Fed Chair Powell speaking on the economic outlook and monetary
policy at the NABE Annual Meeting, with both text release (12:20pm) and Q&A expected.

 

METALS: 

Gold fell from a fresh all-time high before reversing losses to trade slightly higher on safe-haven demand, following renewed trade tensions between the US and China.
Analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026. Gold has now officially added +$10 trillion of market cap in the last 12 months. Spot silver fell after touching a record high above $53.50. Inventories of silver
in London have fallen by a third since mid-2021. However, a large part of that is held by exchange-traded funds. The remaining “free float” of metal available to provide liquidity to the London market — mostly held by big banks — has dropped to just 200 million
ounces, down 75% from a high of over 850 million ounces in mid-2019, according to Bloomberg calculations. One executive at a logistics company said he has been receiving calls with growing urgency from customers seeking to take silver out of vaults linked
to New York’s Comex and fly it to London. He estimated that traders were currently seeking to move some 15 million to 30 million ounces of silver from New York to London. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver -1.7%, Copper futures -3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil fell after the IEA raised its estimate for a record oversupply. Supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels a day — 18% higher than September estimates
— an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, the agency said. WTI -2%, Brent -1.9%, US Nat Gas -2.2%, RBOB -1.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar advanced against most major peers after fresh trade frictions with China rattled risk assets and sent investors looking for havens.
China vowed to “fight to the end” in a tariff and trade war, while acknowledging that the door for negotiation is open. Sterling fell after UK jobs data prompted traders to add to wagers on Bank of England interest-rate cuts. The euro dipped after French President
Macron rejected calls to resign on Monday, as his latest government was threatened by two no-confidence motions. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.55%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.9%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.45%, USDNOK +1%.

 

 

Bitcoin -3.8%, Ethereum -7.4%. Ether drops more than 7% on broad crypto selloff

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alvotech (ALVO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
    • AMD (AMD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $300
    • Ares Management (ARES) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $180
    • Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $3.20
    • Dlocal (DLO) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $19
    • DoorDash (DASH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $325
    • Fifth Third (FITB) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $52
    • Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $181
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $30
    • Hub Group (HUBG) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $40
    • Monolithic Power (MPWR) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $1,200
    • NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $47
    • Nexa (NEXA) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $5.50
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $270
    • TaskUS (TASK) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $18
    • Warner Music (WMG) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
    • Zymeworks (ZYME) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $26
  • Downgrades
    • Albemarle (ALB) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $100
    • BASF (BAS GR) ADRs Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT $10.80
    • Carrier Global (CARR) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $520
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$32
    • EverCommerce (EVCM) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $11
    • Huntsman (HUN) Cut to Underperform at BofA
    • PagSeguro (PAGS) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $9
    • Regions Financial (RF) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $27
    • Salesforce (CRM) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $264
    • Santander (SAN SM) Brasil ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4.90
    • Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
  • Initiations
    • Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $21
    • AppLovin (APP) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $700
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $88
    • Ardent Health (ARDT) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $19
    • Axis Capital (AXS) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $103
    • Bilibili (BILI) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Macquarie; PT $36.03
    • Centene (CNC) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $33
    • Chord Energy (CHRD) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $130
    • Cigna (CI) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $370
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • CVS (CVS) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $91
    • Devon (DVN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $42
    • Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $56
    • Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
    • Elevance (ELV) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $343
    • Go Residential REIT (GO/U CN) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $14.50
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Rated New Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
    • Humana (HUM) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $235
    • Immunovant (IMVT) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $16
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) US Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $17
    • iRhythm (IRTC) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $205
    • Mind (MNMD) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $32
    • Molina (MOH) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $207
    • MP Materials (MP) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • Oscar Health (OSCR) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $17
    • Ovintiv (OVV) Rated New Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $42
    • Pattern Group (PTRN) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $18
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $19
      • Rated New Outperform at William Blair
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $18
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $18
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $18
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $17
      • Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $18
    • Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$38
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $258
    • Salesforce (CRM) Reinstated Buy at President Capital Management
    • Savara (SVRA) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $11
    • Senti Biosciences (SNTI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
    • SPX Technologies (SPXC) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $205
    • Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT C$73
    • UnitedHealth (UNH) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $406
    • Upstream Bio (UPB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $47
    • USA Rare Earth (USAR) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI) Rated New Accumulate at Johnson Rice
    • Zegna Group (ZGN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $12.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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