Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 17, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import Price Index, Export Price Index (all delayed);
9:15 Industrial Production (delayed); 12:15ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 4:00ET TIC Flows

Highlights and News:  

  • President Trump and President Zelenskyy to meet today in the Oval Office
  • Fear & Greed Index at 22 (was 46 a week ago): with SP 500 ~2% from all-time high
  • TRUMP: SUCH HIGH TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS NOT SUSTAINABLE
  • TRUMP: PERMANENTLY CUTTING DEMOCRAT PROGRAMS WE DIDN’T WANT
  • US Nears Tariff Relief for Auto Industry
  • Top performing country ETFs ytd: South Korea EWY +72%, Vietnam VNM +71%, Greece GREK +64%
  • ICE reports the arrest of a criminal alien from Montenegro serving as a sworn police officer in Illinois

 

Global stocks fell sharply amid resurgent credit market woes after a sharp selloff in US regional lenders reverberated through Asian and European trading hours. Worries
over credit quality in the US economy are heightening investor unease, already stirred by escalating trade tensions between the US and China. China criticized the US on Thursday for fueling alarm over its rare earth restrictions, dismissing Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent’s “grossly distorted” comments about a senior Chinese trade official and rejecting the White House’s demand to lift the controls. MSCI’s index for EM stocks dropped 1.3%, driven by losses in technology shares. Global stocks recouped some losses
after Trump told reporters that current tariffs on China were “not sustainable” and affirmed he would meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea in a couple of weeks.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures extend Thursday’s declines on concern about lending standards among US regional banks. Futures trimmed losses after President Trump moved to calm fears of a trade war
with China, lifting sentiment following steep declines in the shares of lenders. Trump said high tariffs on Chinese goods is not sustainable. A rout in regional banks, sparked Thursday by news that Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp were victims of
fraud on loans to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages, is set to continue. The Fed’s Beige Book said it all: the share of the national economy that is still expanding has collapsed in the past six weeks to 18% from 43%, according to Rosenberg
Research. The White House is set to relax tariffs on the US auto industry, with the Commerce Department expected to grant a five-year extension to an agreement that lowers tariffs on imported car parts for automakers. The announcement could come as soon as
today. In corporate news, Meta Platforms is set to seal an almost $30 billion financing package for its data center site in rural Louisiana. The VIX reverses earlier overnight gains after it closed above 25 for the first time since late April.  Over $3.4 trillion
worth of options will expire today with notional open interest for this expiration expected to be the largest recorded for any October, according to Goldman Sachs.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) falls 4% after Barclays downgrades the wireless telecommunications stock to underweight from overweight, citing expensive
valuations. CSX (CSX) rises 2.8% after the freight transportation company reported third-quarter revenue above analysts’ estimates. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) declines 3% after President Donald Trump said the price of the blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic could
come down to just $150 a month. Fifth Third (FITB) rises 2.6% after the company reported earnings per share for the third quarter that beat. Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) rises 1.6% after posting third-quarter results. Micron (MU) falls 1.3% as Reuters reports
that the chipmaker plans to stop supplying server chips to data centers in China. Truist Financial (TFC) rises 1.1% after the financial services company reported adjusted earnings per share and non-interest income that came in above the average analyst estimates.

Regional Bank ETF

AAII survey showed bullish sentiment dropped from ~46% to 33.7%. Fear & Greed Index at 22 (was 46 a week ago): even with SP 500 ~2% from all-time high yesterday.

European gauges opened sharply lower on concerns in US regional lenders but are well off their lows with the CAC 40 climbs back to flat. Europe’s banking sector lost
as much as 3.2% before paring some losses. Trump announced a deal with Germany’s Merck KGaA to cut the price of its fertility medicines in exchange for relief from threatened tariffs. Merck will offer its complete portfolio of IVF therapies through the president’s
direct-to-consumer platform and boost manufacturing in the US. EssilorLuxottica shares jumped over 12% and to a record high after the eyewear group reported third-quarter revenue that soared past estimates. Vitrolife rises as much as 8%, one of the few gainers
in the European health-care sector after Trump advanced his campaign promise of making IVF less expensive. Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 7% after Trump said the White House will negotiate to lower prices for weight-loss. Volvo fell as much as 8%, after
the Swedish truck maker said it expects a slowdown to extend into next year. Norion Bank falls as much as 12% after the Swedish niche lender reported earnings that fell short of estimates. Polish financial stocks led the Warsaw bourse down after the parliamentary
approval of a higher corporate tax rate for banks  Stoxx 600 -0.9%, DAX -1.4%, CAC +0.03%, FTSE 100 -1%. Defense -2.5%, Insurance -1.8%, Financial Services -1.7%. Luxury +1.5%, Autos +0.5%.

Shares in Asia declined, hurt by lingering worry over US-China frictions and as loan problems at two American regional banks heightened concerns about the credit market.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%, snapping a two-day gain, with financials and tech hardware the biggest drags. TSMC dropped, with investors seen taking profits after the chipmaker raised its revenue outlook on strong AI demand. Hong Kong and mainland
China benchmarks were among the worst performers amid the ongoing trade spat with the US. Investors also are positioning after the strong recent rally, with eyes on next week’s Fourth Plenum policy meetings. Japanese stocks fell as investors eye continued
uncertainty over the local political situation. Hang Seng Tech -4%, Indonesia -2.6%, Hang Seng Index -2.5%, CSI 300 -2.3%, Vietnam -2%, Nikkei 225 -1.4%, Taiwan -1.25%, ASX 200 -0.8%, Philippines -0.05%. Kospi was flat. Sensex +0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are slightly higher after reaching multi-month lows earlier overnight with 2-year yield falling as much as 5bp to 3.37%, lowest since 2022. The move
was reversed after President Trump said high tariffs on Chinese imports wouldn’t last. The curve is mixed with 2s10s flat and 5s30s -1.5 bps. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said officials can keep lowering interest rates in quarter-percentage-point increments
to support a faltering labor market, while Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his view that a move twice that size would be appropriate this month.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold prints new record above $4,370 an ounce in volatile trading, before turning lower. Gold is headed for its biggest weekly gain since December 2008 when the
collapse of Lehman Brothers fueled the global financial crisis. Gold just became the first asset in history to hit $29 TRILLION in market cap. Silver reverses from a new all-time high to trade over 2% lower. The price gap between London and New York silver
futures remains unusually wide at $1.20 an ounce, with over 15 million ounces of silver withdrawn from warehouses linked to the Comex futures exchange in New York over the past week. Spot gold -0.7%, Silver -2.1%, Copper futures -0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices inch higher but heading for a weekly loss of around 3% after the IEA forecast a growing glut. Trump and Putin agreed on Thursday to another summit on the
war in Ukraine, to be held in the next two weeks in Budapest. The unexpected development occurred as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy traveled to the White House on Friday to advocate for increased military aid, including US-made long-range Tomahawk missiles,
while Trump urged India and China to halt purchases of Russian oil. WTI +0.1%, Brent ~flat, US Nat Gas -0.1%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar index is a bit higher after reversing earlier overnight losses as Trump says high tariffs on China are not sustainable. Hedge funds
that have bought the dollar versus the yen and the euro earlier this month have been stopped out, while institutional investors are largely sidelined, according to traders. he Swiss franc hit its strongest level in a month and the yen firmed before paring
gains. Reuters learned today that Japan’s lower house scheduling committee board has agreed to hold a parliamentary vote to select the next prime minister on October 21.Citigroup sold Argentine pesos to the Federal Reserve on Thursday as part of US Treasury
Secretary Bessent’s wide-ranging effort to buoy the currency and Javier Milei’s administration. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.01%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD is flat, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.25%, USDNOK -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -1.7%, Ethereum -1.6%. Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum after its recent rout, even as longstanding havens like gold and silver hit fresh highs. Futures
are holding above the 200dma.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Appfolio (APPF) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $285
    • Bentley Systems (BSY) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
    • BXP (BXP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $83
    • Cascades (CAS CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$12
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $65
    • Deere (DE) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $535
    • Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
    • International Paper (IP) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $57.80
    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $18
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $38
    • Jefferies (JEF) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $81
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Raised to Market Perform at KBW; PT $191
    • Moody’s (MCO) Raised to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$20.50
    • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $106
    • Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$7.75
    • Zions (ZION) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $65
  • Downgrades
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $60
    • Bank OZK (OZK) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Booz Allen (BAH) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $105
    • Bragg Gaming Group Inc (BRAG CN) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Jumia (JMIA) ADRs Cut to Sell at Aletheia Capital; PT $7.50
    • Kezar Life Sciences (KZR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $7
    • Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $44
    • Reinsurance Group (RGA) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
    • Smartstop Self Storage REIT (SMA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $39
    • Sonoco (SON) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Southern Co (SO) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $102.50
    • UDR (UDR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $46
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$12.50
  • Initiations
    • Ascendis Pharma (ASND) ADRs Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
    • Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Chevron (CVX) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $190
    • Conoco (COP) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $100
    • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $42
    • Credo Technology (CRDO) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $165
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $43
    • Didi Global (DIDIY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $8.30
    • Exxon (XOM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $156
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $58
    • iBio (IBIO) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $2
    • InvenTrust Properties (IVT) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $30
    • Kontoor Brands (KTB) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $105
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $214
    • McKesson (MCK) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Occidental (OXY) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $42
    • Option Care Health (OPCH) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $154
    • Primo Brands (PRMB) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $23
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $154
    • Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $76
    • Suncor (SU CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT C$57
    • TransDigm (TDG) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $216
    • Veracyte (VCYT) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $45
    • VSE (VSEC) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $195

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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