Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 23, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed, Jobless Claims Delayed; 10:00ET Existing Home
Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Mfg Activity; 1:00ET
US to sell $26 billion 5-year TIPS; 3:00ET TRUMP TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT IN WASHINGTON

Highlights and News:  

  • Crude Oil Rises Over 5% After New US – EU Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies
  • US Prepared to Take Further Action, Calling on Moscow to Agree Immediately to a Ceasefire
  • Europe adopts 19th sanctions package against Russia, including LNG import ban
  • White House is considering a plan to curb an array of software-powered exports to China
  • Trump Administration in Talks to Take Stakes in Several Quantum Computing Companies
  • BOJ sees signs of overheating in Japan’s stock market
  • US hits $38 trillion in debt
  • Nearly a Quarter of American Workers didn’t take any of their vacation days this year

 

Global stocks inched higher, getting a boost from a slew of upbeat earnings that helped counter some of the gloom on Wall Street over a lackluster showing from tech
megacaps, while oil prices jumped in response to US sanctions on Russia. Trump imposed Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, targeting oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft. The US said it was prepared to take further action
as it called on Moscow to agree immediately to a ceasefire in its war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is weighing a proposal to restrict a wide range of software-driven exports to China—including laptops and jet engines—as retaliation for Beijing’s
recent restrictions on rare earth exports. Elsewhere, Japan’s central bank warned that its stock market is displaying early signs of overheating, cautioning that uncertainty surrounding US trade policy could trigger sharp corrections and hit financial institutions.
In other news, Trump denied a WSJ report that said the US lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed to lower. Big rotations are going on, with momentum trades like AI losing steam, as earnings misses pile up in the tech sector. Shares in US quantum computing
firms surged in premarket trading after the WSJ reported that the Trump administration is in talks to take equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing surged between 12% and 14%. Tesla, the first of the
Mag 7 to report earnings, saw shares fall around 4% post-market, after missing profit estimates despite record third-quarter revenue. American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected loss, driven by a rebound in business and leisure travel in the domestic
market. T-Mobile gained 1 million new mobile phone subscribers in the third quarter and raised its outlook for the year. Polymarket is seeking funding at a valuation of up to $15 billion, sources said. The meme stock mania of the past few days may be passing,
with Beyond Meat and Krispy Kreme both lower in premarket trading.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P-0.15 %, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI -0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Dow Inc. (DOW) rises 6% after the chemicals company reported third-quarter operating Ebitda that beat. Honeywell (HON) gains 4% after the industrial
company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings that beat expectations. IBM is down 7% after it reported disappointing revenue in two key software categories, including its closely watched Red Hat unit. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) rises 5% after the casino operator
reported a beat. LendingClub (LC) soars 11% after the online lender provided a guidance above estimates and a JPM upgrade to overweight. Moderna (MRNA) is down 4% after the company said its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects,
failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial. Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down 18% after the health insurer cut its adjusted profit guidance for the full year. T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) falls 1% after posting third quarter results. Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls
3% after the retailer narrowed its full-year guidance range for net sales. Ribbon Communications (RBBN) falls 14% after the developer of software for large phone companies posted third quarter profit that disappointed. Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) surges 105%
after the drug developer said mid-stage clinical trial results showed significant reductions in cardiovascular risk factors in patients with obesity.

Staples vs Discretionary: XLP/XLY testing the short term key at the 50dma.

REITs ETF relative to SP500: the 50dma has been a very good s/t pivot point.

European gauges are mostly higher as traders sifted through a barrage of earnings reports. Energy shares lead gains, lifted by higher oil prices following US sanctions
on Russian oil companies. In individual stocks, Nokia Oyj surged as much as 13% after artificial intelligence and cloud demand boosted results. Volvo Car shares soared 33% after better-than-expected profit. Unilever sales were lifted by strong demand in North
America. SAP slipped after cloud revenue missed estimates. STMicro plunged 9% after it forecast 4Q revenue that missed expectations. LSE Group rose as much as 9%, after the stock exchange operator reported strong Q3 results and raised its guidance. Nokia shares
surge as much 13% after a beat. Kering shares rise as much as 10% after net sales beat expectations. Dassault Systemes dropped as much as 17% after the software firm lowered its revenue forecast. Stoxx 600 +0.25%, DAX -0.25%, CAC +0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.6%. Energy
+2.4%, Basic Resources +1.4%, Personal Goods +1.3%. Travel & Leisure -2%, Technology -1%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed after news that the White House is considering curbs against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software. The US
is considering curbs similar to those implemented against Russia if China doesn’t back down from its threat to restrict rare-earth exports, Reuters reported. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3%, with TSMC and SoftBank among the biggest drags, tracking
a continued selloff in global AI shares. Japan and South Korea led losses among regional benchmarks. The Kospi erased earlier gains to record highs after the Bank of Korea held rates steady and dialed back expectations for additional easing this year.
Chinese equities staged a late rebound after China announced in the afternoon that Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks. A pivotal political gathering on the nation’s
development plan for the next five years was also in focus, with authorities expected to deliver fresh policy measures to support growth. A pivotal political gathering on the nation’s development plan for the next five years was also in focus, with authorities
expected to deliver fresh policy measures to support growth. Nikkei 225 -1.3%, Kospi -1%, Taiwan -0.4%. ASX 200 +0.03%, Sensex +0.15%, CSI 300 +0.3%, Philippines +0.4%, Hang Seng Tech +0.5%, Vietnam +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%, Indonesia +1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold losses accumulated during London morning as oil prices surged after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers. Yields are higher by
2bp-5bp across a slightly steeper curve. 10-year yield is near 3.99%; 2s10s +~2bps. US session includes 5-year TIPS auction, following strong demand for Wednesday’s 20-year bond sale.

 

METALS: 

Gold nudges higher as US sanctions on Russia and potential new export restrictions on China heightened geopolitical tensions, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
Focus shifts to the US CPI report due tomorrow that is expected to shed more light on the Fed’s interest rate cut trajectory. A 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week has been almost fully priced in by investors. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +1.5%,
Copper futures +1.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil jumped more than 5% after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers. Sources said Reliance Industries – India’s largest buyer of Russian oil –
plans to massively cut those imports amid EU and US sanctions, with other Indian refiners likely to make substantial reductions as well. Separately, EU countries approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia that includes a ban on imports of Russian
LNG. Several suppliers have cancelled sales of Middle Eastern and Canadian oil to China’s Yulong Petrochemical after the UK imposed sanctions on the refiner last week, which is likely to push it to buy more Russian crude, multiple sources said. Trump said
he planned to speak to Xi Jinping about China’s purchases of Russian oil when the two leaders meet next week in South Korea. WTI +5.1%, Brent +4.7%, US Nat Gas +0.7%, RBOB +3.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers while petrocurrencies rose as oil prices spiked. The yen extended its losses into a fifth
day. BOJ watchers pushed back their forecast for the next interest-rate hike after Sanae Takaichi took over as PM. Only 10% of economists now predict a rate hike on Oct. 30, down from 36% in the previous survey. The South Korean won led declines, hitting its
lowest level in nearly six months after the Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged and tempered expectations for further easing this year. The Turkish lira also slipped ahead of the central bank’s rate decision.  US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY
+0.5%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum +2.2%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Anglogold (AU) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $90
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $195
    • Barrick Mining (ABX CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • CME Group (CME) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $300
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • LendingClub (LC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $22
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $114
    • Principal Financial (PFG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Add at CGS Int’l; PT $185
    • SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$39
    • TransMedics (TMDX) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $148
    • U.S. Bancorp (USB) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $52.50
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $210
  • Downgrades
    • Citigroup (C) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $98.93
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $37
    • Hologic (HOLX) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $78
    • OR Royalties (OR CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$57.38
    • Plymouth (PLYM) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $24
    • Take-Two (TTWO) Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $280
    • Tegna (TGNA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $22
    • Triple Flag (TFPM CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$48.98
    • Vivid Seats (SEAT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $13
    • Winnebago Industries (WGO) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
  • Initiations
    • Accenture (ACN) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $266
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $100
    • Allot Ltd (ALLT) Reinstated Buy at Needham; PT $12.50
    • Bill Holdings (BILL) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $71
    • Block (XYZ) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $105
    • Booking (BKNG) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Cognizant (CTSH) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $75
    • Collective Mining (CNL CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • Comstock Resources (CRK) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $26
    • EPAM Systems (EPAM) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $170
    • Expedia (EXPE) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Fidelity National (FIS) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $73
    • Fiserv (FI) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $128
    • Flywire (FLYW) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $15
    • Genpact (G) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $43
    • Global Payments (GPN) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $110
    • Globant (GLOB) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $67
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $250
    • Marqeta (MQ) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $5
    • Mastercard (MA) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $735
    • PayPal (PYPL) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $78
    • Rupert Resources (RUP CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • Toast (TOST) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $51
    • Veritone (VERI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $10
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $207.40
    • Viper Energy (VNOM) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $38
    • Visa (V) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $450
    • Volvo (VOLVB SS) ADRs Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $34.50
    • Western Union (WU) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $9
    • Zedcor Inc (ZDC CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$7.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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