Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 3, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:45ET October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET US October ISM Manufacturing; 12:00ET
Fed’s Daly speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Cook speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Nvidia inked a landmark deal to supply its technology to South Korea’s biggest companies
  • China to suspend some rare-earth curbs and US chip firm probes
  • OPEC+ pauses oil output increases for Jan-March 2026
  • Yardeni Research Warns ‘Too Many Bulls’ Risks Stock Market Pullback
  • Job Cuts From Amazon to Target Flash Warning for US Labor Market
  • Trump Threatens US Military Action in Nigeria
  • India plans to almost triple incentives for rare-earth magnet manufacturing
  • More than 735,000 New Yorkers cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday’s mayoral election; highest ever

 

Global stocks rose, driven by investor optimism over a US-China trade truce and surging investment in artificial intelligence. China will pause the plan to add more
export controls on rare-earth metals and end investigations into US companies in the semiconductor supply chain. The US is expected to suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels, starting next week. China’s manufacturing activity expanded less than
forecast in October, with Manufacturing PMI slipping to 50.6 from 51.2 in September. Euro zone manufacturing activity stagnated in October with new orders flat and payrolls shrinking—even as output notched an eighth straight monthly gain, a survey showed.
Output expanded marginally for the eighth straight month but showed little momentum, registering at 51.0 compared with 50.9 in September. New orders remained subdued after over three years of near-continuous contraction. In emerging markets, Nigeria’s dollar
bonds suffered losses after President Trump threatened military action if the country’s government doesn’t halt the killings of Christians by Islamist militants.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures are mixed, with investors gearing up for earnings from Palantir Technologies and a slate of private economic reports for fresh direction on the path for interest rates.
Yardeni Research is growing concerned that too many stock market bulls may be a contrarian red flag. Goldman calculated that US earnings are surpassing estimates at near-record rates, while Morgan Stanley said profit growth for Russell 3000 stocks is at a
four-year high. Economists are worried that recent corporate cutbacks may be a warning sign, with companies such as Starbucks, Target, and Amazon making significant job cuts. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed almost 950,000 US job cuts this
year through September, the highest year-to-date total since 2020. Investors will have more clues on AI demand, as semiconductor firms including Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm report results this week. NVDA shares rise pre-market after Trump said Nvidia’s
most advanced chips will be reserved for US companies and kept out of China and other countries. Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy Kenvue in a cash and stock deal that values the consumer-health company that owns brands like Tylenol at about $40 billion. Microsoft
signed a $9.7 billion agreement to buy cloud capacity from Australia’s IREN, giving it access to more Nvidia chips, while Alphabet plans to raise at least €3 billion in a debt offering.  SM Energy and Civitas Resources agreed to combine in a $12.8 billion
deal. Eaton agreed to buy Boyd Thermal from Goldman for $9.5 billion.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Alvotech (ALVO) plunges 23% after the drugmaker said the FDA rejected its biologics application for a biosimilar candidate to Johnson & Johnson’s
Simponi and cut its 2025 outlook as a result. Cisco Systems (CSCO) rises 1.6% after UBS upgrades the maker of networking equipment to buy from neutral. Eaton (ETN) drops 1.3% after the power-management company agreed to buy the Boyd Thermal business of Boyd
Corp. from Goldman Sachs for $9.5 billion. Kenvue (KVUE) surges 19% after Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy the consumer-health company in a cash and stock deal at an enterprise value of about $48.7 billion. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) slumps 13%. Liquidia (LQDA) jumps
10% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the third quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate. New Gold (NGD) is up 7.6% after Coeur Mining agreed to buy the mining company in an all-stock deal with an implied equity value of about $7 billion.
UniQure (QURE) plunges 59% after the drug developer said the FDA notified the company that data for AMT-130, an investigational gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, did not provide sufficient evidence to support BLA submission.

European gauges are mostly higher as investors look ahead to earnings results. Energy shares advance alongside oil prices as OPEC+ is set to pause its output increases
in the first quarter of next year. Autos gain after it was announced China would ease its chip export ban. Switzerland’s inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.1% in October, instead of accelerating to 0.3% as economists had forecast. Among individual names, GTT
advances over 7%, to a new record high, following an upgrade to its guidance after the market close on Friday. BFF Bank surged as much as 11%, before paring gains, after the Italian firm said the Bank of Italy has lifted the ban on the distribution of profits.
Davide Campari-Milano shares fell as much as 6%. Italian prosecutors have ordered the seizure of around €1.3 billion in shares from the holding company that controls Campari as part of an alleged tax-fraud probe. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.8%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE
100 -0.05%. Travel & Leisure +1.5%, Autos +1.4%, Technology +0.8%. Real Estate -0.5%, Basic Resources -1.2%.

Shares in Asia rose, lifted by gains in South Korea’s chipmakers after a slew of technology partnerships bolstered sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan
Index climbed 0.8%, with markets closed in Japan for a holiday. The Kospi soared to a fresh record high as Nvidia forged a deal to supply its technology to South Korea’s biggest companies, including Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor Group and SK Group. Shares
on mainland China reversed early losses to close higher following disappointing PMI data. Gold jewelry stocks tumbled after China ends tax rebate for some retailers. Chinese AI application stocks rose after Beijing vows to promote more homegrown technology
breakthroughs. In the week ahead, traders will be watching for rate decisions from Australia and Malaysia, as well as gross domestic product numbers from Indonesia and the Philippines. Kospi +2.8%, Indonesia +1.4%, Hang Seng Index +1%, Taiwan +0.4%, Singapore
+0.35%, CSI 300 +0.35%, ASX 200 +0.15%, Sensex +0.05%. Vietnam -1.4%, Philippines -1.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are roughly higher by ~3bps across the curve.  10-year near 4.11%; 2s10s + half a bp. US session includes manufacturing PMIs and at least two Fed
speakers.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher around $4,020 an ounce, as China ended a long-standing tax rebate for some retailers. The new policy allows companies
producing non-investment gold to offset only 6% of the VAT, down from 13% previously, which could weigh on demand in one of the world’s largest precious-metals markets. Big US banks, including Citi, are considering a move back into gold storage, a sign they
expect high prices to last. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +0.05%, Copper futures +0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil fluctuated as traders weighed the OPEC+ alliance’s plan to pause its output rebound next quarter on anticipation demand will slow. OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to a
small oil output increase for December while pausing further increases for Q1 2026—dialing back its market-share grab as glut worries intensify. OPEC+ members agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and
November. Following the move, Morgan Stanley raised its near-term price forecast for Brent, while also maintaining a warning for a “substantial surplus.” Trump, meanwhile, threatened possible US military action against Islamic militants in Nigeria, Africa’s
largest oil producer, if the country’s government didn’t halt the groups’ “killing of Christians.”  WTI flat, Brent +0.02%, US Nat Gas +1.4%, RBOB -0.15%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar hovered near a three-month high ahead of economic data this week that will offer only vague clues about the health of the US economy
and could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. Sterling is lower ahead of a Bank of England rate decision later this week, while the yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency.
The Aussie$ steadied, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday, following an uncomfortably high reading of core inflation. The Indian rupee, Asia’s worst-performing currency this year, neared a new low despite
RBI intervention, pressured by US tariff uncertainty. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.25%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.4%, USDCAD +0.3%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK ~flat.

 

 

Bitcoin -2%, Ethereum -3.8%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Antero Resources (AR) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
    • Aon PLC (AON) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $402
    • Apple (AAPL) Raised to Buy at GF Securities; PT $308
    • Casella Waste (CWST) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $95
    • Cisco (CSCO) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $88
    • Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $300
    • Edwards Life (EW) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $96
    • Endeavour Silver (EDR CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$16
    • First Bancorp NC (FBNC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $58
    • First Foundation (FFWM) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $6.75
    • Incyte (INCY) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $125
    • Kilroy (KRC) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $47
    • LCI Industries (LCII) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $110
    • Linde (LIN) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $500
    • Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $445
    • Meta (META) Raised to Buy at Accountability Research; PT $855
    • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright
    • Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $1,350
      • Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $1,300
    • Pampa Energia (PAMP AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $113
    • ProPetro (PUMP) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $16
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $68
    • Replimune (REPL) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $11
    • Roku (ROKU) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $135
    • Teradyne (TER) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $209
    • Universal Health (UHS) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $270
    • Westlake Corp (WLK) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $84
  • Downgrades
    • AptarGroup (ATR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Cut to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $8.50
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $97
    • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $19.64
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Exelixis (EXEL) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Sector Underperform at Peters & Co; PT C$108
    • Iqvia (IQV) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $215
    • Luminar (LAZR) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $181
    • Probe Gold Inc (PRB CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$3.65
    • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $42
  • Initiations
    • Alliance Laundry (ALH) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $32
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $31
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $31
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $32
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $30
    • Amkor Technology (AMKR) Rated New Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $62
    • ASE Technology (3711 TT) ADRs Rated New Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $22
    • Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $17
    • DT Midstream (DTM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $125
    • Ezcorp (EZPW) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $23
    • First Mining Gold (FF CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • Halliburton (HAL) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $35
    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $18
    • Kalaris Therapeutics Inc (KLRS) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Linkbancorp (LNKB) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $9
    • Meridian (MRBK) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $20
    • NB (NBBK) Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $21
    • NeXGold Mining Corp (NEXG CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $38
      • Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $56
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $42
      • US Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $45
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $46
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $45
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $11
    • Playtika (PLTK) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $3.75
    • Probe Gold Inc (PRB CN) Rated New Tender at National Bank; PT C$3.65
    • Qnity Electronics (Q) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $110
    • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $77
    • Slate Grocery REIT (SGR-U CN) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$15.45
    • SLB (SLB) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $48
    • Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
    • Thesis Gold Inc (TAU CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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