Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 4, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Trade Balance, Exports MoM, Imports MoM; 10:00ET JOLTS, Factory Orders, Durable Goods,
Cap Goods Orders (Delayed)

Highlights and News:  

  • Wall Street CEOs warn of market pullback from rich valuations
  • EU LEADERS SKIP LATIN AMERICAN SUMMIT TO AVOID ANNOYING TRUMP
  • DICK CHENEY DEAD AT 84
  • N. Korea Fired Rockets During Hegseth’s S. Korea Visit: Chosun
  • Artificial intelligence data centers are popping up faster than power providers can support them
  • Goldman sees a “tremendous backlog” of large M&A deals
  • New Yorkers Head to Polls With Mamdani Ahead

 

Global stocks are broadly lower amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next moves and after Palantir Technologies earnings revived concerns about lofty tech
valuations. Risk-off sentiment comes after Fed official Austan Goolsbee said he’s more concerned about inflation than the labor market, spurring caution over the outlook for further rate cuts. While he still sees room to ease, Goolsbee told Semafor he worries
about “front-loading” cuts without more data. Meanwhile, China called on the US to avoid sensitive issues so that a trade truce can hold. Ambassador Xie Feng named Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s political system, and development rights as Beijing’s
four red lines.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are sharply lower, with Palantir’s strong beat and raise failing to spur follow-through buying. AI bellwether Palantir Technologies declines more than 7% in pre-market
trading on worries about the company’s lofty valuation after a record run-up. Wall Street chief executives from Capital Group, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs said investors should brace for an equity market drop of more than 10% in the next 12 to 24 months,
and that such a correction may be a positive development. Out of the 336 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 82% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed. In corporate news, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund
will vote against the $1 trillion pay package proposed for Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Starbucks agreed to sell a majority stake in its China business to Boyu Capital at a $4 billion enterprise value. Amazon alleged that a Berkshire Hathaway-owned utility in Oregon
is failing to provide sufficient power for four new data center facilities. UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher cautioned against risks in the US insurance industry, citing “huge ratings agency arbitrage” reminiscent of 2007 and a lack of effective regulation.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Russell 2000 -1.2%, DJI -0.6%.

In pre-market trading, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) sinks 9% after the grain handler cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Shares of Denny’s
Corp (DENN) were skyrocketing in early trading after the casual-dining chain said it agreed to be taken private in a deal valued at $620 million. Eaton Corp (ETN) falls 4% after the power-equipment company forecast adjusted earnings per share for Q4 below
what analysts expected. Fabrinet (FN) rises 6% on light volume after fiscal first quarter results and second quarter guidance beat estimates. Global Payments (GPN) rises 7% after posting quarterly results. Insperity (NSP) sinks 27% after the professional services
company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 8% after the cruise operator reported revenue for the third quarter that missed. Paymentus Holdings (PAY) rises 9% after the online bill payment company provided
fourth quarter guidance that topped estimates. Sarepta (SRPT) tumbles 39% after the drugmaker says the study of Amondys 45 and Vyondys 53 in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy missed primary endpoint. SunCoke Energy (SXC) rises 5% after narrowing its
adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year. Uber Technologies (UBER) slips 3% after the company posted a miss on third-quarter operating income. Upwork (UPWK) rises 19% after the online recruitment company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations
and raised its full-year forecast. Whitestone REIT (WSR) climbs 15% as people familiar said MCB Real Estate is making a renewed push to acquire the company. Yum! Brands (YUM) ticks 2% higher after initiating a strategic review for Pizza Hut. Zoetis Inc. (ZTS)
falls 7% after the animal health company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) falls 7%, taking a breather after rallying more than 170% this year. The data-analysis software company raised its full-year forecast and
reported third-quarter results that beat expectations. While analysts are broadly positive on the report, they flag concerns over the stock’s premium valuation.

ORCL has slipped over 26% from its September high and approaching potential key support area versus peers.

European gauges slide following a broadly weaker Asian session. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated as much as 1.7%, its steepest drop in over two weeks, with mining
shares and the telecom sector among the biggest laggards. Telefonica shares slide over 11% after the telecom operator reduced free cash flow guidance for 2025. Edenred SE dropped the most in two months as analysts flagged a lower-than-expected earnings target
from the French employee benefits firm amid ongoing regulatory concerns. Schaeffler falls more than 5%, with analysts saying valuation is starting to look stretched. Elmos Semiconductor gains as much as 10% after reporting third-quarter results. Kinepolis
shares rise as much as 6.3% after the movie theater operator agreed to buy the operations of US firm Emagine.  Entertainment.  Stoxx 600 -1%, DAX -1.4%, CAC -1.2%, FTSE 100 -0.5%.  Basic Resources -2.5%, Telecom -1.9%, Defense -1.6%. Real Estate +0.4%, Food
& Bev +0.2%.

Shares in Asia declined, with South Korea leading the retreat, as traders sold some high-flying tech shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.9%, with chipmakers
Samsung Electronics and TSMC among the biggest drags. SK Hynix slipped after Korea’s exchange issued an investment caution on the stock after its big rally. South Korea’s consumer inflation quickened in October as a weaker won lifted energy and food costs,
reinforcing the case for the central bank to extend the pause in its monetary easing cycle. Japan’s manufacturing activity shrank in October at the fastest pace in 19 months on a slump in demand in key automotive and semiconductor sectors, a private-sector
survey showed. Asian indices were broadly lower except for gauges in Vietnam and the Philippines. Kospi -2.4%, Hang Seng Tech -2.8%, Nikkei 225 -1.7%, ASX 200 -0.9%, Hang Seng Index -0.8%, Taiwan -0.8%, CSI 300 -0.7%, Topix -0.6%, Sensex -0.6%, Singapore -0.5%,
Indonesia -0.4%. Philippines +0.7%, Vietnam +2.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.09%. US yields are richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve, led by short end, with 2s10s and
5s30s spreads wider by around 1bp. Fed’s Goolsbee said the government shutdown shifts risks to inflation, with lack of recent data leaving the central bank “with one eye covered.” IG dollar issuance slate has four offerings so far. Monday’s volume was second-highest
this year — $34.5 billion from 13 borrowers led by Alphabet with a $17.5 billion eight-part offering. Market participants now see a 65% chance of another rate cut in December, down from over 90% prior to Powell’s remarks, as per CME’s FedWatch Tool.

 

METALS: 

Gold is slightly lower after declining 0.9% earlier in the session, hovering just below the $4,000 per ounce mark, as easing trade risks
and a resilient dollar curbed demand for the safe-haven asset. Gold ended little changed on Monday after China announced on Saturday that some retailers would no longer be able to fully offset a value-added tax on inputs when selling some products. The move
has clouded the outlook for demand as it remains unclear what the regulation will look like in practice. Copper extends a decline from a record as Codelco eased concerns about supplies. Spot gold -0.4%, Silver -0.8%, Copper futures -2.9%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices fell over 1% as OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter next year along with weak manufacturing data and a stronger dollar weighed
on the market. “The succession of poor manufacturing PMIs from Asia and then the US ISM is a worry for oil demand. So is the ever present market upsetting tariff threat,” said analysts at PVM Oil Associates. HSBC says it expects OPEC+ to resume output target
hikes after a pause in the first quarter of next year. Gunvor Group sees Russian oil continuing to find its way to the market despite tougher US sanctions. Traders are now awaiting the latest US inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute due later
in the day. WTI -1.4%, Brent -1.2%, US Nat Gas -1.2%, RBOB -1.1%.  

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen is firm, boosted by haven demand as global equity markets decline. Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi said stable inflation with wage growth
is still a work in progress, signaling she wants the BOJ to proceed cautiously with its policy deliberations. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America see little immediate risk of currency intervention in Japan, saying the usual triggers “have not yet been met.”
US$ hovers near a three-month high as a divided Federal Reserve prompted traders to rein in their bets on interest rate cuts. Sterling slides to its lowest since April, after UK finance minister Rachel Reeves, in a rare speech ahead of her November budget,
said this would be a budget of “hard choices”, signaling possible broad tax rises were coming. Aussie$ falls after the RBA left its cash rate steady as expected but cautioned about easing further given higher core inflation and a revival in the housing market.
India’s rupee pulled back from a near-record low after RBI intervention. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY -0.45%, AUDUSD -0.6%, NZDUSD -0.8%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK +0.8%, USDNOK +0.9%.

 

 

Bitcoin -2.5%, Ethereum -2.5%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

US Premarket Movers of Note:

  • DENN US (+49%): Denny’s Soars After $620 Million Go-Private Deal
  • SGHC US (+19%): Super Group Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
  • IHRT US (+13%): Netflix Is in Talks to License Video Podcasts From iHeartMedia
  • SANM US (+12%): Sanmina 1Q Adjusted EPS Forecast Beats Estimates
  • FN US (+11%): Fabrinet Gains as 1Q Results, 2Q Outlook Beat Estimates
  • EXAS US (+5.9%): Exact Sciences Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates
  • HIMS US (+4.9%): Hims Jumps on Talks to Offer Novo’s Obesity Pill
  • INCY US (+5.9%): Incyte Option Trading Highest Since Nov 2024
  • SW US (-2.1%): Multi Manager Access – EMU Adds Smurfit WestRock, Cuts Infineon
  • SNPS US (-2.1%): Marsico Global Exits Synopsys, Buys More Tencent
  • GEV US (-2.3%): China’s Trade Envoy Li Meets With GE Vernova’s Executive
  • AMD US (-2.3%): Earnings Day Ahead: AMD, Shopify, Uber, Arista Networks
  • TSLA US (-2.4%): Tesla Near Record Is Poster Child for Risk-On Mood
  • ANET US (-2.9%): Earnings Day Ahead: AMD, Shopify, Uber, Arista Networks
  • MSTR US (-3.1%): Strategy Inc to Conduct IPO of Euro-Denominated STRE Stock
  • AVTR US (-4.1%): Avantor Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
  • MU US (-4.2%): Micron’s CFO Murphy Sells $28.4 Million of Shares
  • LUMN US (-4.2%): Lumen Technologies Option Trading Highest Since Aug 2024
  • CRDO US (-4.3%): Credo Technology’s Brennan Reports Stock Transactions
  • LSCC US (-6.2%): Lattice Falls as Adj. Gross Margin Forecast Misses Estimates
  • PLTR US (-6.8%): Palantir Drops as Valuation, US Concentration Weigh
  • GRAB US (-8.6%): Grab Raises Outlook After Money-Saving Products Fuel Rides
  • SRPT US (-38%): Sarepta Sinks as Older Duchenne Drugs Fail Trial

 

  • Upgrades
    • Aimco (AIV) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $10
    • Apple (AAPL) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $300
    • Bruker Corp (BRKR) Raised to Hold at Nephron Research; PT $36
    • Comcast (CMCSA) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $28
    • Hercules Capital (HTGC) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $19.50
    • Inspire Medical (INSP) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $90
    • Knife River Corp (KNF) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $75
    • Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen
    • PDD (PDD) ADRs Raised to Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT $156
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $105
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $65
    • Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $450
    • Tactile Systems (TCMD) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $28
    • Terex (TEX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $47
    • WM (WM) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $242
  • Downgrades
    • AbbVie (ABBV) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $237
    • AKITA Drilling (AKT/A CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$2.50
    • Alvotech (ALVO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $8
    • Apple Hospitality (APLE) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $11.50
    • Avantor (AVTR) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $22
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • CT REIT (CRT-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$17
    • CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $524
    • Denny’s (DENN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $6
      • Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • DraftKings (DKNG) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $35
    • Flutter (FLUT) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $250
    • Ichor (ICHR) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $21
    • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Park Hotels (PK) Cut to Hold at CFRA
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Cut to Neutral at UBS
    • Summit Hotel (INN) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $4.50
    • Thryv Holdings Inc (THRY) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • TScan Therapeutics (TCRX) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • uniQure (QURE) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT $30
  • Initiations
    • Antalpha Platform Holding (ANTA) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $14
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Goliath Resources Ltd (GOT CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$5
    • Idexx Labs (IDXX) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
    • Novagold Resources (NG CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • OFS Capital (OFS) Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $7
    • Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $60
    • Qnity Electronics (Q) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
      • Rated New Buy at Fermium Research; PT $105
    • Twist Bioscience (TWST) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $41

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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