Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 6, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims (delayed); 10:00ET Wholesale
Trade, Inventories; 11:00ET Trump makes an announcement, Fed’s Williams speaks, Fed’s Barr speaks; 12:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 2:00ET Mexico Rate Decision; 3:30ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 4:30ET Fed’s Paulson speaks; 5:30ET Fed’s Musalem speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Supreme Court’s Trump tariff skepticism means uncertainty reigns
  • Trump says court revoking tariffs would be ‘devastating’
  • Fed’s Musalem, Hammack, Williams, Paulson, Waller and Barr are all slated to speak today
  • EU Warns It Lacks Near-Term Power to Sway China on Rare Earths
  • BOE Holds Rates in 5-4 Split, Tees Up Dec. Cut
  • US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades
  • Disney Signs DraftKings as ESPN’s New Sports-Betting Partner
  • Typhoon Kalmaegi is heading for Vietnam’s coast

 

Global stocks inched higher as buy-the-dip optimism extended following this week’s pullback, with rising bets on interest-rate cuts lifting sentiment. A rebound in
global stocks driven by dip buying looks set to decelerate, ahead of the last major earnings day of a season that’s delivered stellar results. The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a five-to-four vote, signaling that borrowing costs are likely on
a “gradual downward path.” The 5-4 vote split was more dovish than expected, teeing up a cut in December. Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs on hold and reiterated that officials will take a while to assess the economy before any further cuts. Japan’s
services sector extended its robust growth in October, despite the slowest growth in new orders in 16 months and a resurgence in inflationary pressures, a private-sector survey showed. Japan’s underlying wage growth remained steady in September, keeping the
Bank of Japan on its policy tightening path as markets look for triggers for the bank’s next move.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are muted after recouping early weakness. Traders will likely weigh the implications of the US Supreme Court hinting it is ready to put significant limits on Trump’s
far-reaching agenda, adding to uncertain sentiment. US shutdown impact is spreading to aviation with plans to cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers. Qualcomm, the biggest maker of smartphone chips,
became the latest semiconductor firm to issue an upbeat forecast that failed to impress investors, sending its shares lower post-market. Shares in the Magnificent Seven tech giants were mixed in premarket, with Tesla rising 0.4% ahead of the outcome of its
campaign to grant Elon Musk a potential $1 trillion pay package. Snap shares surged premarket after the company announced a $400 million partnership with Perplexity to incorporate its AI-powered search engine into Snapchat.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) +0.6% after the deadline for investors to vote on Elon Musk gargantuan compensation plan expired at midnight. CarMax (KMX) falls
11% after the used car retailer’s board terminated the employment of CEO Bill Nash. Coherent (COHR) soars 18% after the semiconductor device company’s results and forecast underlined AI tailwinds. DoorDash (DASH) falls 11% after its forecast for fourth quarter
adjusted Ebitda fell short. Duolingo (DUOL) is down 23% after the language-learning software company gave a weak fourth-quarter bookings forecast. Elf Beauty (ELF) sinks 21% after the cosmetics company’s full-year outlooks for adjusted earnings per share and
net sales both missed analysts’ estimates. Fastly (FSLY) jumps 19% after the software company’s results and raised full-year revenue forecast. HubSpot (HUBS) falls 10% after the software company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. LegalZoom.com
(LZ) rises 27% after the legal services company gave an outlook that is seen as reinforcing positive growth trends. Marvell (MRVL) is up 8% as people familiar say that SoftBank Group Corp. explored a potential takeover of the US chipmaker earlier this year.
Papa John’s (PZZA) falls 7% after the pizza company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed. Snap (SNAP) surges 19% after the company announced a $400 million partnership with Perplexity AI Inc. to incorporate its AI-powered
search engine into Snapchat. Stagwell Inc. (STGW) soars 80% after announcing a partnership with Palantir.

European gauges slipped, pressured by sharp losses in France’s Legrand after the electrical-equipment maker missed sales-growth forecasts, intensifying concerns over
stretched valuations in technology-related stocks. Air France-KLM shares slide as much as 14% after the airline group reported a miss on Ebit in the third quarter. HelloFresh shares fall as much as 15% after Grizzly Research published a report on the meal-kit
company. Novo shares rose as much as 3.9% after a judge denied Pfizer’s request to temporarily block the Danish drugmaker’s $10 billion bid to acquire the obesity startup Metsera. Deutsche Post gained over 7% after the logistics company reported earnings well
ahead of expectations. Adecco climbs as much as 11% after third-quarter results which analysts view as “strong across the board.”  Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.15%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.15%. Food & Bev -0.9%, Travel & Leisure -0.9%, Construction -0.7%. Basic
Resources +1.4%, Real Estate +0.6%. 

Shares in Asia climbed the most in over a week, as dip buyers lifted technology shares after a two-day selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, with TSMC, Tencent
and Nvidia-supplier SK Hynix among the key boosts. Chinese chip stocks gained after a media report said the government is requiring new state-funded data centers to swap overseas AI chips with locally designed alternatives. Japanese artificial intelligence-related
companies rose: Advantest, which supplies testing equipment to Nvidia, rose 3.15%, while chip equipment maker Disco Corp advanced more than 6%. Shares of Chinese autonomous vehicle firms WeRide and Pony.ai fell over 12% and nearly 8%, respectively, in their
market debut in Hong Kong. Hang Seng Tech +2.75%, Hang Seng Index +2.1%, Singapore +1.5%, CSI 300 +1.4%, Topix +1.4%, Taiwan +0.7%, Kospi +0.5%, Philippines and ASX 200 +0.3%, Indonesia +0.2%. Sensex -0.2%, Vietnam -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains in early US session, supported by soft job cuts data and gains for gilts after Bank of England’s 5-4 decision to hold rates at 4%, with
dissenters preferring a cut. US session includes several Fed speakers, with December rate-cut odds hovering around 60%. The yield on 10-year notes fell three basis points to 4.13%. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer across the curve led by intermediates, with 5s30s
spread steeper by around 1bp; 2s10s +0.5bp.  

 

METALS: 

Gold rose for a second day, climbing above $4,000 per ounce as a retreat in the dollar and a prolonged US government shutdown raised worries over the economic outlook.
“The Supreme Court skepticism on the tariffs and the slightly weaker dollar are likely supporting gold,” UBS analysts said.  Spot gold +0.8%, Silver +1.2%, Copper futures +0.6%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices edge up, buoyed by easing concerns over a potential supply glut as sanctions on Russian companies begin to bite. Russia collected $9.7 billion in taxes
from oil and gas producers in October, a 27% decline from the same month last year, Russia’s Finance Ministry said.  The global oil market faces an estimated surplus of 1.74 million barrels a day this quarter, up from 400,000 between July and September, according
to ANZ.  WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas +2.3%, RBOB +2.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell after hitting a four-month high in the previous session, testing its 200dma resistance for the first time since breaking it in
early March. US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as AI reshapes industries, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data. Norwegian krone leads G-10 gains after Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs on hold
and reiterated that officials will take a while to assess the economy. The yen firmed after wage data showed faster growth in Japan’s labor cash earnings, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to normalize its policy. Traders are growing gloomy on the
outlook for the pound, already at its lowest in months, concerned that a long-awaited budget this month will do little to boost Britain’s growth prospects.  US$ Index -0.35%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.4%, USDJPY -0.35%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.3%,
USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.35%, USDNOK -0.5%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum -2.4%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aldebaran Resources (ALDE CN) Raised to Buy at Cormark Securities
    • ATS Corp (ATS CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$49
    • Biogen (BIIB) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $202
    • Bunge Global (BG) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $120
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $660
    • Champion Homes (SKY) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $91
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $199
    • Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
    • DigitalOcean (DOCN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $60
    • Geopark (GPRK) Raised to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $8.50
    • GXO Logistics (GXO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $64
    • Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $165
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $187
    • LegalZoom (LZ) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$7
    • PSEG (PEG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $90
    • Rigel Pharma (RIGL) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $42
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $70
    • Sonos (SONO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17
    • Suncor (SU CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$70
    • Teradata (TDC) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $31
    • UMB Financial (UMBF) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $128
  • Downgrades
    • ACV Auctions (ACVA) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $6
    • Alpha & Omega Semi (AOSL) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $24
    • BioMarin (BMRN) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $61
    • Bumble (BMBL) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $5
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $14
    • Duolingo (DUOL) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Elf Beauty (ELF) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $100
    • Green Plains (GPRE) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $10
    • Ingredion (INGR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $124
    • Kornit Digital (KRNT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
    • Lineage (LINE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $41
    • Perrigo (PRGO) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • Southern Co (SO) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $98
    • Tim Brasil (TIMS3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $23.60
    • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $100
  • Initiations
    • Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $176
    • Amazon (AMZN) Rated New Buy at Sealand Securities; PT $289
    • Apellis Pharma (APLS) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $44
    • Brinker (EAT) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $145
    • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $16
    • Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42
    • Inventiva SACA (IVA FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Wolfe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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