Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Employment (delayed), Canada Unemployment Rate; 10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment; 11:00ET
NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations; 3:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

• China’s Exports Unexpectedly Fell in October as Prices Keep Falling
• Israel stepped up air strikes on southern Lebanon
• Elise Stefanik Announced She is Running for Governor of New York
• US to block Nvidia’s sale of scaled-back AI chips to China
• US Airlines Cut Flights, More to Come as Gov Shutdown Drags On
• Tesla Shareholders Back Musk’s $1T Pay Package

Global stocks resumed their slide after a brief burst of dip-buying, with caution lingering at the end of a volatile week, as investors fretted over the sustainability
of a rally in artificial intelligence stocks. So far this week, the world’s biggest tech index has fallen 2.8%, which would mark its largest one-week drop since April, when tariffs were announced. Chinese exports fell for the first time since the US imposed
its “Liberation Day” tariffs. Exports of cars, solar panels and batteries remain strong, but prices are falling because of factory overcapacity in China. Shipments to all nations except the US rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for the more than 25% decline
to America. Israel stepped up air strikes on southern Lebanon, raising fears that the year-long truce with Hezbollah could collapse.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower again as investors weighed concerns over tech valuations. Major stock indexes are heading for weekly declines at the start of November, a month that has historically
delivered strong gains. Flows remain supportive with US equity funds attracting $19.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 5, according to BofA, an eighth consecutive week of inflows. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown entered its 38th day, becoming the longest
in American history, with over 1 million federal workers missing paychecks. Lawmakers in the Senate said they would maintain a unified position, suggesting the shutdown will continue and delaying the official October jobs report, although private data suggests
widespread layoffs. Semiconductors remain in the spotlight. Nvidia isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, said CEO Jensen Huang. Elsewhere, Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk.
Comcast is reportedly considering a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, while ITV has confirmed talks with Comcast’s Sky regarding a potential sale of its media and entertainment division.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI -0.3%.

SPX has not fallen below its
50dma since climbing above it in late April. A break
of the ascending trend channel in E-Mini S&P futures may see further downside momentum.

In pre-market trading, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) jumps 10% after the buy-now-pay-later financing company raised its forecast for 2026 gross merchandise volume. Airbnb
Inc. (ABNB) rises 3% after issuing a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) falls 13% after the maker of fiber-optic networking products reported third-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected. Archer Aviation
(ACHR) drops 11% after the company, which is trying to bring electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft to market, said it is buying Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. Block (XYZ) tumbles 14% after the fintech platform reported third-quarter adjusted earnings
and net revenue that missed.  Globus Medical (GMED) soars 28% after the medical-device maker increased its forecast for full-year profit following third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) falls 30% after the biotech reported
a patient died following treatment with its investigational gene-editing therapy. JFrog (FROG) soars 21% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. KKR & Co. (KKR) is up around 5% after
the investment company reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Microchip Technology (MCHP) falls 3% after the semiconductor-device company gave a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast. Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 4% after
third-quarter results topped expectations. Sweetgreen (SG) falls 13% after the restaurant chain cut its revenue guidance for the full year. Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) falls 6% after delaying the release of Grand Theft Auto VI again. Wendy’s
Co. (WEN) rises 7% after reporting that sales declined less than expected in the third quarter.

US Premarket Movers of Note:

• GMED US (+30%): Globus Medical Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $93
• EXPE US (+16%): Expedia Up as Strong Result, Outlook Spurs Upgrade: Street Wrap
• AFRM US (+9.8%): Affirm Shares Gain as Improved 2026 Guidance Beats Estimate
• AKAM US (+7.5%): Akamai Boosts FY Adjusted EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
• SNDK US (+7.1%): Sandisk Gains After 1Q Revenue, 2Q Sales View Top Estimates
• ABNB US (+4.6%): Airbnb Gives Strong Outlook in Sign US Demand Is Picking Up
• SOUN US (-2.9%): Soundhound 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
• TTWO US (-4.1%): Take-Two Falls as Grand Theft Auto Postponed Again: Street Wrap
• MP US (-6.4%): MP Materials 3Q Adjusted Loss per Share 10C, Est. Loss/Shr 17C
• DKNG US (-7.5%): DraftKings Falls as Results Hurt By ‘Ugly’ Betting Outcomes
• STNE US (-7.5%): StoneCo 3Q Adjusted Net Income Misses Estimates
• DOCS US (-8.9%): Doximity Falls After Outlook Underwhelms: Street Wrap
• ACHR US (-9.8%): Archer Aviation to Offer 81.25m Shares at $8/Shr in Direct Offer
• XYZ US (-15%): Block Drops as 3Q Sales, Adj. EPS Miss Estimates: Snapshot
• SG US (-17): Sweetgreen Plunges After Second Consecutive Forecast Cut

European gauges drop and are on track for their second week of declines, as investors monitor earnings and the interest rates outlook in the US. Travel and leisure
shares underperform, dragged lower by British Airways parent IAG after reporting a miss on Ebit in the key third quarter. The media sector outperforms, boosted by ITV’s rally after the broadcaster said Comcast is in talks to buy its media and entertainment
arm. Novo Nordisk declines over 3% after the Danish drugmaker said it expects a negative impact on global sales growth in 2026 following Thursday’s deal with the Trump administration. Rightmove Plc shares slumped as much as 28% after the UK online property
platform warned that revenue growth was likely to be flat in 2026 as it unveiled plans to boost investment in artificial intelligence. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -1.0%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.7%.  Travel & Leisure -1.9%, Technology -1.1%. Autos +0.4%.

Shares in Asia fell, with technology-heavy markets leading the decline, as concerns about swelling valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.9%, its worst week
since August. Markets with large technology weightings, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, tracked declines in US peers. Adding to negative sentiment is further risks of disruption to the region’s supply chain after reports the US will block Nvidia’s scaled-back
AI chips to China. China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in October, dropping 1.1% from a year earlier, as global demand failed to offset the slump in shipments to the US. Chinese-controlled chipmaker Nexperia has been allowed to resume exports, a supplier
said. Tech stocks will continue to be in focus for the week ahead, with several firms in the region reporting earnings including Tencent, SoftBank and Sony. India will also report inflation figures, while Hong Kong and Malaysia will release gross domestic
product data. Vietnam -2.6%, Kospi -1.8%, Hang Seng Tech -1.8%, Philippines -1.3%, Nikkei 225 -1.2%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Taiwan -0.9%, Thailand -0.8%, ASX 200 -0.7%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Sensex -0.1%. Singapore +0.2%, Indonesia +0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Yields across the US Treasury curve edged higher with 10-year up half a basis point around 4.09%; 2s10s +2bps, 5s30s +2.5bps.  Focal points of US session include
November preliminary University of Michigan sentiment, with October jobs report expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown. The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee said a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown makes him uneasy about continuing
interest-rate cuts. That follows Beth Hammack’s caution that high inflation poses a bigger risk than job market weakness. NY Fed President John Williams said recent repo market stress indicates bank reserves are approaching “ample” levels. The
200 week moving average is major support in 10-year yield.

METALS: 

Gold firms as traders weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, tariff uncertainty and an ongoing US government shutdown. Gold ETFs in India are
heading for record inflows, with this year’s purchases already close to $3 billion and translating to about 26 tons of the precious metal, the WGC said. China added to state gold reserves for a twelfth consecutive month. Gold is trading little changed from
last Friday’s close, following two straight weeks of losses. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +1.3%, Copper futures +0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edge higher but remain on track to record a weekly loss for the second straight week amid mounting concerns about oversupply and weak demand. Gunvor scrapped
its bid for Lukoil’s international assets after the US called the commodities trader “the Kremlin’s puppet” and said it would never get a license. Hungary’s Viktor Orban will offer to purchase US LNG and nuclear fuel when he meets with Trump in Washington
today, seeking a reprieve from Russian oil sanctions, sources said. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.5%, US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB +0.4%

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, US$ inches lower as investors weigh the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt against lingering concerns over the US economy. The dollar reversed an
earlier decline versus the yen after data show Japan household spending slowed. Japan will target a primary balance surplus over several years instead of annually, PM Sanae Takaichi said, signaling a shift back to a more reflationary policy platform in the
style of her mentor, Shinzo Abe. Japan’s household spending rose 1.8% in September but missed estimates. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY +0.03%, AUDUSD +0.02%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.15%.

Bitcoin -1.1%, Ethereum -2.8%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• 4D Molecular (FDMT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• AMD (AMD) Raised to Outperform at CICC; PT $265
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $1,200
• Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $21
• Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Black Hills (BKH) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $81
• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Canadian Apartment (CAR-U CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$47
• Champion Homes (SKY) Raised to Outperform at Zelman; PT $79.25
• Datadog (DDOG) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $230
• Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Definity Financial (DFY CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$80
• Dlocal (DLO) Raised to Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $20
• Equinox Gold (EQX CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$19
• Excelerate Energy (EE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Expedia (EXPE) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $250
• First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Globus Medical (GMED) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $93
• Host Hotels (HST) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $22
• JFrog (FROG) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $75
• Matson (MATX) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $142
• Middleby (MIDD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $125
• Ouster (OUST) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $33
• Penn Entertainment (PENN) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $21
• Seadrill (SDRL) Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT $34
• Sonic Automotive (SAH) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $82
• TC Energy (TRP CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$83
• Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$78
• Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) Raised to Buy at Accountability Research
• Trade Desk (TTD) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $65
• Unity Software (U) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $50
• WSP Global (WSP CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$305
• Downgrades
• AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $4
• Altus Group (AIF CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$52
• Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $13
• Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $13
• ARC Resources (ARX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$30
• Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Cut to Neutral at Chardan Capital Markets
• BlackLine (BL) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $55
• CarMax (KMX) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $34
• Cogent Comms (CCOI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $27
• Dentsply (XRAY) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• European Residential REIT (ERE-U CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$1.25
• First Majestic (AG CN) Cut to Market Perform at Cormark Securities
• Forge Global (FRGE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $45
• Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• High Liner Foods (HLF CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$16
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $5
• Penn Entertainment (PENN) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Sangamo (SGMO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $1
• Sweetgreen (SG) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Teads Holding (TEAD) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$65
• TransAlta (TA CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$18
• Treace Medical (TMCI) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $5
• Initiations
• CTW Cayman (CTW) Rated New Buy at 01 Partners; PT $5.70
• Foghorn Therapeutics (FHTX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $12
• Immunic Inc (IMUX) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $3

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke