Our View

Now that the government is reopening, there’s a huge backlog of economic reports that are going to be released. While there isn’t a Fed meeting in November, there is a two-day meeting scheduled for December 9–10.

I know some people think I’m nuts about the front-running and that the PPT doesn’t want the stock market to fall. You can agree or disagree—but I really believe both. It was happening last night — as of 7:00 PM Sunday night, the ES put in a high at 6795.50 and is trading 6784.50, up 30.75 points. The NQ hit 25,391.50 and is trading 25,330.50, up 168.75 points. At 7:17 PM, the government passed the bill to reopen the government

As for levels, after the YM, ES, and NQ posted two-week lows. The ES at last night’s high was up 140 points off Friday’s 6665.50 low. The NQ, at its Globex high, was up 559.75 points from its 24,709.25 low.

I think the ES is going to 6820, then 6850.

As for the gap up, there could be some selling, but I don’t think either the ES or NQ are going back to the recent lows anytime soon.

I did catch a long ES on Friday, and I have a good enough lead that I’m holding. Over the last few years, I’ve been learning that the news makes a high and makes a low—but it’s how the news is reported that gets people to make extreme decisions. And while it may not be over, the hysteria around the AI bubble stuff remains.

I said last Thursday—and posted it on Twitter and in Friday’s OP—that I heard our dumb-ass elected officials were going to open up the government on Monday, and I was right.

Market Recap

The ESZ25 traded down to 6723.75 on Globex and opened Friday’s regular session (RTH) at 6723.50, down 26.50 points.

After the open, the ES quickly sold off down to 6683.50, rallied back up to a lower high at 6716.50 at 10:15 AM ET, before dropping to 6666.25 and popping up to 6682.00. It then traded back down to 6655.50 and rallied up to 6687.25 around 1:00 PM ET, making a series of dips and rips all the way up to 6705.00 at 1:40 PM ET.

The ES sold off to 6686.00 at 1:50 PM ET and then started plowing higher, trading above VWAP up to 6711.00 at 2:20 PM ET. It pulled back and traded one contract at the exact VWAP price of 6683.75, which triggered an explosive buy program that pushed the ES all the way up to 6744.75 at 3:00 PM ET—an 89.25-point gain off the day’s low.

After reaching the high, the ES pulled back to 6723.25 (one tick below the RTH open) at 3:20 PM ET and traded up to 6745.50 at 3:40 PM ET. It then pulled back to 6731.25 as the 3:50 PM ET cash imbalance showed $2.8 billion to buy. The market ticked down and then ripped up to 6755.50 (exactly 100 points off the low) at 3:55 PM ET, pulled back a few points, then roared up to 6762.50 and settled at 6753.25 on the 4:00 PM ET cash close.

After 4:00 PM ET, the ES ticked down to 6757.00, rallied up to 6765.75, and settled at 6753.75, up 6.25 points or +0.09%.

The NQ made a low at 24,709.25, rallied 518 points up to 25,227.25, and settled at 25,166.25, down 78 points or -0.31% on the day.

In the end, the early selling looked severe, but after the selling dried up and all the options margin calls and rolling lower caught everyone short late in the day, and you can’t tell me the nearly $3 billion bought on the 3:50 imbalance I didn’t add to the late buying spree.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, I think after the NQ was down over 500 points and immediately started going bid, the ES was already on board. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was the highest of the week at 2.04 million contracts traded.

Last 7 Sessions

The table above is a very small snippet of the last 7 sessions after the ES traded up to its 10/30 all-time high of 6953.75. There’s no doubt the ES and NQ took a hit, but it isn’t as bad as it looks.

Total over 7 sessions:

On 10/30, the ES made its all-time contract high at 6953.75. Over the 7 trading days from 10/30 to 11/07, the ES fell a total of 226 points on down days and rallied 57 points on up days, resulting in a net point change of 169 down and a −2.4% decline.

The NQ fell 158.75 points on down days and rallied 29.75 points on up days, for a net point change of −129.00 and a −1.89% decline.

The real weakness came from the NQ, which had its worst week since April 4th. I know it was a rough week, but Friday’s late rally saved the FRYday trade. Again, I think what we saw was what a normal pullback looks like after a historic run.

Does that mean the markets can’t go back down? My own opinion is that in most cases, when you have a selloff like we just had and the futures bounce off a low like that, it could be a good low, or similar to how many of the other pullback/declines ended. I believe the positive end-of-year seasonals will carry through into the end of November and the end of the year.

On Tap

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES Z

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6737.75. This is the key pivot level that defines today’s directional bias. Trading above this level favors the bulls, while sustained price action below it signals continued weakness.

Currently, ES is trading near 6815.00, showing early strength above the bull/bear line. If momentum holds, the next resistance comes in at 6811.50, followed by 6880.75, which serves as the upper range target. A breakout and hold above 6880.75 would open room for a push toward 6900.00+.

If price fails to hold above 6811.50, watch for a retest of 6772.00 and 6763.00. A sustained move below 6737.75 would turn the tone bearish again, targeting 6664.00 as the lower range level and then 6655.50 as deeper support. A break of 6594.75 could trigger a broader liquidation move.

Overall, the near-term trend leans bullish above 6737.75, but watch for fading strength into resistance levels as the session progresses.

NQ Z

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,112.50. This is the key level that separates bullish and bearish tone today. Currently, NQ is trading around 25,518.00, which keeps the bias tilted to the upside above this level.

If buyers can maintain trade above 25,512.50, the next resistance comes in near 25,529 as the upper range target, with a potential move toward 25,921. Sustained strength above 25,921 could accelerate momentum toward 25,995.

If sellers push price below 25,112.50, look for a test of 24,996 as initial support, with the lower range target down near 24,696. A deeper break opens room toward 24,304.25.

The tone remains constructive above 25,112.50 but turns bearish if that level fails on a sustained basis.

“Give a little to the bears, let them feel clever… and then take it all back (plus tip) once the selling stops.” – PTGDavid

DTG Room Preview – Monday, November 10, 2025