Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 14, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Retail Sales, PPI Final Demand; 10:00ET Business Inventories; 10:05ET Fed’s Schmid
speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 3:20ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts for Latin American countries to address high food prices
  • CHINA TO STRENGTHEN FISCAL POLICY SUPPORT IN 2026-2030: XINHUA
  • Taiwan, US Reach Agreement on Exchange Rate Policies
  • SPEAKER JOHNSON: WILL AIM TO GET ALL FUNDING BILLS BY JANUARY
  • NBA star Stephen Curry is leaving Under Armour

 

Global stocks fell as a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials doused hopes for a December US rate cut, while a chaotic economic data calendar and concerns over
an AI bubble heightened investor unease. Still, foreign inflows into US equity funds saw their ninth-straight week of inflows through Nov. 12 at $6.4 billion. Chinese equities fell following softer activity data. Strategists pointed to data showing economic
activity in China cooled more than expected at the start of the fourth quarter, with an unprecedented slump in investment and slower industrial growth adding to the cautious tone. UK markets slid amid fresh uncertainty over Britain’s fiscal outlook. Chancellor
of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves scrapped plans to raise income tax rates in the coming budget, prompting questions over how she would offset the revenue shortfall.
The euro zone economy continued to expand at a modest but respectable pace in the third quarter while the trade surplus surged in September on healthy exports to the United States,
data from Eurostat showed.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures extend their two-day decline as fears of a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve fueled a retreat from risky assets. Nasdaq futures lead losses after tumbling more than
2% in the previous session as mounting doubts over an interest-rate cut next month stirred fresh jitters about stretched valuations. Traders slashed the odds of a December US rate cut to under 50% after several officials expressed doubts about the need for
a third consecutive reduction. Applied Materials is 5% lower in pre-market trading after the chip-equipment maker suffered a sales decline last quarter and predicted another drop in the current one. Warner Bros Discovery shares rose post-market after the Wall
Street Journal reported that Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for the company. Merck is closing in on a $3.3 billion deal to acquire San Diego-based Cidara Therapeutics, a biotech company developing a treatment for influenza. Meanwhile, President
Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts for Latin American countries to address high food prices as he seeks to address voter concerns over the cost of goods.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1.1%, Nasdaq -1.6%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -0.7%.

In pre-market trading, Applied Materials (AMAT) declines 6.5%. The chip-equipment maker suffered a sales decline last quarter and predicted another drop in the current
period, though the company sees demand improving in the second half of 2026. Avadel Pharma (AVDL) jumps 18% after the pharmaceutical company said it received an unsolicited proposal from H. Lundbeck A/S to acquire it for up to $23.00 per ordinary share. Cidara
Therapeutics (CDTX) is up 104% after Merck & Co. agreed to acquire the biotech company, which is developing a flu treatment. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) plunges 17% after the drone company’s FY25 revenue forecast missed estimates. Stubhub (STUB) tumbles 19% as
analysts note that it was surprising that the ticketing platform did not provide a forecast for the current quarter. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up 2.8% after the WSJ reported Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for the media company. Walmart
(WMT) has announced that chief executive Doug McMillon is retiring and will be replaced by the head of the group’s US division at the end of January. WMT shares are down 2.5% ahead of the bell.

Nasdaq 100 Index hasn’t settle below its
50dma
since April.

European gauges are broadly lower as investors worry about the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest rates and weak economic data in China. The FTSE 100 headed
for its biggest drop since April on reports of a U-turn by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves on income tax hikes. News that the decision reflected improved economic forecasts failed to reassure investors. Siemens Energy led energy stocks higher after
raising guidance, while banks and tech shares are among the biggest laggards. Bechtle shares surged as much as 17% after the supplier of computers and office supplies reported a significant improvement in earnings. Siemens Energy jumped as much as 12% after
the German energy company raised guidance above consensus, citing strong demand for gas turbines and data center equipment. Bavarian Nordic shares drop as much as 7.8% after the Danish vaccine maker’s revenue guidance for the full year was weaker than expected.
Stoxx 600 -1.8%, DAX -1.7%, CAC -1.6%, FTSE 100 -1.9%. Technology -3.2%, Banks -3.1%, Defense -3.1%, Basic Resources -2.7%.

Shares in Asia declined, led by technology-heavy markets, as concerns over lofty valuations and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook dampened sentiment.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6%, the most since April. Technology megacaps including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the major drags. China’s factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October, piling pressure
on policymakers to revamp the export-driven economy. Tech stocks will continue to be in focus for the week ahead, with several firms in the region reporting earnings including Xiaomi and Baidu. Kospi -3.8%, Hang Seng Tech Index -2.8%, Philippines -2.5%, Hang
Seng Index -1.8%, Taiwan -1.8%, Nikkei 225 -1.8%, CSI 300 -1.6%, ASX 200 -1.4%, Topix 00.6%, Indonesia was flat. Sensex +0.1%, Vietnam +0.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries erased losses in early US trading amid a curve-steepening rout in gilts, where reports that UK government will drop a proposed income tax increase have
sparked jitters about its fiscal credibility. US 10-year yield is about 6bp lower on the day near 4.06% after peaking near 4.14% as UK 10-year yield surged as much as 13bp. 2s10s curve is ~1bp flatter while 5s30s is up ~2.5bps. Markets are now pricing in less
than a 50% chance of a cut next month, down from about 63% earlier this week and over 95% a month ago. US session includes three scheduled Fed speakers, while economic data continues to be delayed as the US government recuperates from its record-length shutdown.

 

METALS: 

Gold falls as Fed rate cut hopes fade after hawkish Fed comments. The White House tempered hopes for clarity on the economy, stating that October’s unemployment data
may not become available. Weighing on rate-cut expectations, some Federal Reserve officials have cited inflation concerns and relative labor market stability following two rate cuts earlier this year. Chinese investors should be aware of risks in gold price
volatility and avoid making singular bets on the bullion market, according to a report in the China Securities Journal. Meanwhile, physical gold demand across major Asian markets was subdued this week as elevated prices curtailed buying activity, with discounts
in India reaching their highest level in five months. Freeport-McMoRan resumed operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg copper mine after a September accident. Spot gold -2%, Silver -2.1%, Copper futures -1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rise in response to risks to Russian flows from Ukrainian drone strikes and tougher US sanctions, offsetting signs the market faces a punishing glut. Ukrainian
drones attacked Russia’s giant Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, prompting a state of emergency after Moscow launched a massive air strike on Kyiv. Iranian forces seized a tanker carrying a cargo of high-sulfur gasoil after it passed the Strait of
Hormuz. The Trump administration rescinded curbs on drilling in Alaska’s mammoth state petroleum reserve, which has an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable crude. WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas -2.7%, RBOB +0.9%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches lower, heading for a weekly fall as investors trimmed positions while waiting to assess a backlog of US data following the
government’s reopening. Sterling recovers from earlier losses as UK Chancellor Reeves considers dropping tax hikes in the coming budget, prompting questions about how she will make up for a revenue shortfall. The Swiss franc climbed to a 10-year high against
the euro as expectations of stickier inflation and the prospect of lower US tariffs bolstered demand for the haven currency. Separately, reports that Switzerland is close to securing a reduced 15% tariff on exports to the US gave the Swiss currency an additional
boost. The won reversed early losses after South Korea pledged to defend the won as it approached a 16-year low, promising action in coordination with the National Pension Service. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.05%,
NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -0.45%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.5%.

 

 

Bitcoin -3.6%, Ethereum -1.6%. Bitcoin sinks to a six-month low.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $260
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $110
    • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $12
    • Gap (GAP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
    • Innovex (INVX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $20
    • MP Materials (MP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $74
    • Nucor (NUE) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $167
    • Ondas (ONDS) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $12
    • Riskified (RSKD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $6
    • Sempra (SRE) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $106
    • Septerna (SEPN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $28
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $127
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $17
    • UiPath (PATH) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $18
  • Downgrades
    • AG Growth International (AFN CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Altius Minerals (ALS CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$42
    • Ardent Health (ARDT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
    • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $7
    • Bitcoin Depot (BTM) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $2.30
    • Chemtrade Logistics (CHE-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$17
    • Dye & Durham (DND CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$4.50
    • Flowserve (FLS) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Gambling.com (GAMB) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Home Depot (HD) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $370
    • Ihs Holding (IHS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
    • KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $4.50(Earlier)
    • Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Cut to Hold at Jones
    • Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Monopar (MNPR) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $123
    • Northland Power (NPI CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$20
      • Cut to Sector Perform at Peters & Co; PT C$23
      • Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$24
    • Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $39.81
      • Cut to Hold at ABG; PT $38.06
    • Progressive (PGR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $232
    • Stubhub (STUB) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Tidewater Midstream (TWM CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$6
    • TScan Therapeutics (TCRX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Verisk (VRSK) Cut to Hold at Argus
    • Vontier Corp (VNT) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $40
  • Initiations
    • Adagene (ADAG) ADRs Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $8
    • AGCO (AGCO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $114
    • Allison Transmission (ALSN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT C$108
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $675
    • Chagee Holdings (CHA) ADRs Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Clean Harbors (CLH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $220
    • Cummins (CMI) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $599
    • Deere (DE) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $543
    • DiaMedica (DMAC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $25
    • Enanta (ENTA) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $17
    • Gates Industrial (GTES) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $23
    • GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$68
    • Herc Holdings (HRI) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $170
    • Jacobs (J) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $160
    • KBR (KBR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
    • Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $55
    • Manitowoc Co (MTW) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $9
    • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $48
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $600
    • Oshkosh (OSK) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $144
    • Paccar (PCAR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $106
    • Polaris (PII) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital; PT $59
    • Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $138
    • Republic Services (RSG) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $238
    • Terex (TEX) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $50
    • Trimble (TRMB) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $94
    • United Rentals (URI) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $995
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • WM (WM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $238

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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