Our View

I said right after Trump got elected that there would be constant volatility — and so far, so good — and I think there’s a lot more to come. The other part of this? I think people have gotten their faces ripped off. Sell off hard one day, rally the next, have a big drop on Thursday and Friday, and then rally sharply the same day. Why? Because billions, if not trillions, of dollars in options are expiring.

And if you think this is nuts, just wait. If the Democrats win over the House of Representatives and start the process of impeaching President Trump, it will get even crazier. There are so many unknowns: NVDA’s earnings, economic data releases, lingering AI bubble talk, a rising VIX, and December Fed rate cut probabilities. Last week, the odds were around 45–50%, down sharply from 80% a month ago.

Everything spells volatility!!!

Anyone who says this trade is easy is full of it. I haven’t seen this many up-and-down false starts in a very long time. I’m long again from lower, and as I write this on Sunday night, the ES is moving higher.

I have two concerns: first, a big gap up; second, getting above the 6800–6820 level. That’s what the bulls need to restart the march to new highs. I still feel strongly that we will see an upside breakout, but so far, November hasn’t cooperated as planned.

Our lean: I’m long and trying to stay with that idea, but I have to admit — it’s not easy. You can sell the gap-up and buy the pullbacks. The last 10 Mondays have all closed higher. If the ES fails, I guess it’s back to 6700.

Market Recap

I’ve talked about this on and off for a long time. I’ve even pointed out the number of up days. It’s something that worked for 20 years — and then one day, it just stopped. It was, and still is, called Mutual Fund Monday — one of the trading rules I put into the MrTopStep Trading Rules 101 back in 2011.

There’s another rule in there that worked after last Friday’s big down open and drop — it’s called Counter Trend Friday. In fact, back when it was talked about, the idea was to buy on Friday and hold into Monday. Even the PitBull’s Thursday/Friday low is in there.

The markets have been in a state of flux, with some big dips and some big rips. Over the last 15 sessions, the largest single ES down day was -1.7% last Thursday, and the largest up day was +1.2%, with 4 of the last 6 sessions closing higher.

Yes, the ES, NQ, and YM have seen some really ugly selling — but on the other side of the coin, the ES has had two face-ripping FRYday short-covering rips.

The ES sold off hard on Globex, down to 6677.75, a drop of 70.75 points or -1.05%, and opened Friday’s regular session at 6692.00. After the open, the ES traded 6692.00, and in the same minute, sold off to 6650.50 (RTH low). And that was it for the downside.

After the low, the ES rallied 116.25 points to 6766.75 at 10:45, dropped 19.25 points to 6747.00 at 11:05, then rallied to 6789.00 at 11:40. It sold off to 6770.00 at 11:45, rallied 25.25 points to 6795.25 at 12:10, dropped to 6780.75, rallied to a new high at 6785.50, dipped to 6760.75, then climbed back to 6782.50 at 1:10. It dropped 29 points to 6753.50 at 1:45, rallied to 6790.00, and then dropped 39.50 points to 6750.50 at 3:45. A new low was made at 6750.00 at 3:56 before ticking back up to 6750.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $600 million to sell. It traded 6758.00 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00 (the new game in town), the ES rallied to 6769.25 and traded 6765.25 at the 5:00 session close down just 4 points (-0.06%) from the previous session close. The NQ settled at 25,147.50, down 5.25 points, or -0.02% on the 5:00 cash close.

In the End

The theme on Friday was clearly the Magnificent 7. After the initial drop off the open, the NQ started going bid — and it didn’t stop. It was one mega buy program after another, adding gunpowder to the already oversold ES.

After some big early losses:

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted well, but some of the intraday moves were extreme. In terms of trade, stayed steady at 2.03 million contracts.

Looking Ahead

While the government gets back to business, so will a deluge of economic reports. The big one this week is the September jobs report, coming Thursday — over a month and a half behind schedule. But remember: the Fed already had the data, so I’m sure it will be fudged. The timing of when the other key economic indicators go back online is still undecided. These include GDP and Consumer Spending, both key data points that investors will watch for economic clues.

You can view the updated schedule on the BLS website: BLS Revised Release Dates

As for earnings:
According to FactSet, 92% of companies have reported Q3 earnings. Of those, 82% beat EPS estimates.

Upcoming reports:

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES Z

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6746.25. With price trading near 6773.50, the market is holding above this pivot and leans bullish intraday.

Above, the first upside objective is 6809, our upper target range. A sustained move through that level opens a path toward 6868.25.

If ES pulls back, initial support sits at 6762.75. Below that, 6755.25 and the bull/bear line at 6746.25 are the key downside levels to watch. Losing 6746.25 exposes the lower range target at 6683.50.

Overall, holding above 6746.25 keeps the market geared toward testing 6809. A drop back below shifts focus to 6683.50.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25040.25. Trading below this level keeps the tone bearish, and the market will need to reclaim and hold above it to shift back toward a bullish stance.

Current price is around 25213.50, showing an attempt to firm up above the bull/bear line. If buyers can defend this area, the next upside objective is the upper range target at 25383.25. Above that, resistance sits at 25706.

If sellers take control and push price back below 25040.25, the downside opens quickly. First support is 25094.50, followed by the lower range target at 24697.25. A break under that exposes 24374.50.

Overall, holding above 25040.25 favors a push toward 25383.25, while losing that level brings 24697.25 back into focus.

NQ Z

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25040.25. Trading below this level keeps the tone bearish, and the market will need to reclaim and hold above it to shift back toward a bullish stance.

Current price is around 25213.50, showing an attempt to firm up above the bull/bear line. If buyers can defend this area, the next upside objective is the upper range target at 25383.25. Above that, resistance sits at 25706.

If sellers take control and push price back below 25040.25, the downside opens quickly. First support is 25094.50, followed by the lower range target at 24697.25. A break under that exposes 24374.50.

Overall, holding above 25040.25 favors a push toward 25383.25, while losing that level brings 24697.25 back into focus.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, November 17, 2025