Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 17, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Empire Manufacturing; 9:00ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 9:30ET Fed’s Jefferson Speaks
on Economic Outlook; 10:00ET Construction Spending; 1:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 3:35ET Fed’s Waller Speaks on the Economic Outlook

BLS says September Jobs Report will be released Nov 20th

Highlights and News:  

  • China escalates Japan spat with threats of economic reprisals
  • Trump says he’d back bill to sanction Russia’s trading partners
  • Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Lifts S&P Target, Sees New ‘Bull Market’
  • Peter Thiel’s Fund Sold Off Entire Nvidia Stake in Third Quarter
  • Jeff Bezos has created an AI start-up where he will be co-CEO
  • Fed’s Williams Discussed SRF Facility with Primary Dealers
  • US airlines will be able to resume normal operations today

 

Global stocks steadied as US economic data starts flowing again this week, with the September jobs data due on Thursday. The main event for markets this week is likely
Nvidia earnings after the close on Wednesday. China is escalating its confrontation with Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, with state media threatening major countermeasures. A row erupted after Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi
told lawmakers a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and potentially trigger a military response. A social media account linked to China’s state broadcaster warned that Beijing “has made full preparations for substantive retaliation” and
hinted at imposing sanctions and restricting trade. A senior Japanese diplomat will head to China today to try to calm things down, after China warned its citizens against travel to Japan. Japanese equities will likely outperform emerging-market peers next
year due to stronger earnings, ongoing reforms and moderate fiscal support, while EMs are expected to lose momentum as the dollar stabilizes, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures reverse earlier gains as investors looked ahead to earnings from Nvidia Corp. and the release of long-delayed economic data. Statistical agencies will start working
through a backlog of reports, including September’s jobs figures, which should provide clearer insight into economic momentum and the Fed’s likely path on interest-rate cuts. Nasdaq 100 contracts lead gains, with Alphabet climbing over 5% in premarket trading
after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake. Sentiment is getting a big boost from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, who said a new bull market and earnings cycle is powering on. Wilson predicts a 16% rally for the S&P 500 over the next year, driven
by strong company earnings. Jeffrey Gundlach is less optimistic, saying he is worried about “garbage lending” in private credit and unhealthy valuations across asset classes, saying the US stock market is “among the least healthy in my entire career.” Deutsche
Bank said that equity positioning has slipped back to neutral with discretionary investors turning underweight and positioning in mega-cap growth and tech trimmed.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.15%, DJI -0.1%.  

In pre-market trading, Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 4% after a regulatory filing showed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired 17.9 million shares of the Google
parent during the third quarter. company reported revenue and adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter that missed estimates. Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) gains 1.8% after UBS upgraded its view on the company to buy. Gap (GAP) rises 2% as Barclays
upgrades the apparel retailer’s stock to overweight, seeing “durable brand recovery” when looking past tariff pressures. PotlatchDeltic (PCH) falls 2% after being cut by two steps at Bank of America. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) climbs 16% after the company
reported earnings. Sealed Air (SEE) falls 3% after Clayton Dubilier & Rice agreed to buy the packaging company that invented Bubble Wrap. Zymeworks (ZYME) jumps 35% after the drug developer gave topline results from a late-stage trial of its experimental combination
therapy for cancer of the stomach and esophagus. Shares of partner Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) are up 21%.

AVGO/SMH: tested the key 200dma for the first time since June ’24.

European gauges extended losses into a third day as investors await key events this week including the resumption of US data releases and earnings from Nvidia Corp.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index reversed an early small gain as luxury and retail shares weigh. Among other individual movers, Genuit Group falls as much as 14%, after the provider of water and ventilation products warned it expects the market to remain subdued
for the remainder of 2025 and into next year. SIG Group AG surges as much as 12% after the Swiss food packaging maker appointed Mikko Keto as CEO. Swedish defense group Saab AB rose after a keenly-anticipated deal to supply Colombia with new fighter jets in
a contract worth €3.1 billion. Morgan Stanley strategists raised their end-2026 target for the MSCI Europe index today. “We expect EU equities to be pulled into the slipstream of a broadening US recovery in 2026, despite continued domestic fiscal challenges,”
they wrote. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Luxury -1.5%, Retail -1.2%, Chemicals -1.1%. Defense +1%, Energy +0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed, with China, Hong Kong and Japan markets lower amid heightened tensions over a deepening diplomatic spat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell
0.1%, with Sony, Fast Retailing and Tencent among the biggest drags. Meanwhile, South Korean stocks extended their blistering rally, and the main Philippine stock index climbed 3.5%. Japanese tourism and retail-related shares dropped on China’s travel warning.
Investors will be closely watching Nvidia’s earnings later this week for cues on the sustainability of momentum in AI spending, with major repercussions for suppliers in Asia.  Japan’s GDP shrank for the first time in six quarters, though at a slower rate
than economists expected. Thailand’s economy shrank 0.6%, the deepest decline since mid-2021. Philippines +3.5%, Kospi +1.95%, Vietnam +1.2%, Thailand +0.85%, Indonesia +0.55%, Sensex +0.45%, Taiwan +0.2%, ASX 200 ~flat. Nikkei 225 -0.1%, Topix -0.4%, CSI
300 -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%, Hang Seng Tech -0.95%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are mixed with 2-year +0.5bp and 10-year yield -1bp around 4.14%, with 2s10s spread flatter by 1.5bp. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion
20-year bonds on Wednesday and $19 billion 10-year TIPS Thursday. New York Fed President John Williams met with primary dealers from Wall Street banks to discuss the Standing Repo Facility after an uptick in usage in recent weeks. Fed speaker slate includes
Williams (9am), Jefferson (9:30am), Kashkari (1pm) and Waller (3:35pm).  

 

METALS: 

Spot gold steadied near $4,080 an ounce as traders assessed dwindling expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.  The minutes from the last
Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting late last month will be released on Wednesday. Following cautious remarks from several Fed officials, markets now price just a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction in December, down from 62%
a week earlier. Investors will keep track of a series of US economic releases due this week, with Thursday’s delayed September non-farm payrolls report set to provide key guidance on the labor market. Spot gold ~flat, Silver +0.6%, Copper futures -0.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied with WTI futures hovering around $60/barrel on signs that activity had resumed at a key Russian port and as oil traders surveyed by Bloomberg
doubt OPEC+ will cut supply in 2026 despite forecasts of a surplus. Russia’s Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea resumed oil loadings following a suspension, Reuters reported. Separately, Ukraine claimed responsibility for a strike on a Rosneft refinery, the
latest in a series of attacks. India is ramping up its energy imports from the United States in a bid to reduce its trade surplus with Washington. India announced a deal that will see the United States supply nearly 10% of New Delhi’s liquefied petroleum gas
imports. WTI +0.1%, Brent +0.1%, US Nat Gas -2.3%, RBOB -0.25%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose versus all Group-of-10 peers except the Swedish krona, and stayed in tight ranges on aggregate, as traders waited for a new set
of US economic data this week. The yen slipped after Japan’s growth data showed contraction in 3Q; Japan’s economic contraction over the summer will support Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s case to compile an ambitious stimulus package even as the central bank
stays on track for a rate hike in the coming months. Rupee outperformed all Asian peers amid rising optimism over a US-India trade deal. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.25%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK
-0.02%, USDNOK -0.02%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.9%, Ethereum +3.6%. Bitcoin rises to near $95k after briefly erasing it’s 2025 gains earlier; Ethereum jumps more than 3%.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Apogee Enterprises (APOG) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $47
    • Ball (BALL) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $61
    • Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $21
    • Block (XYZ) Raised to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $68
    • Expeditors (EXPD) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $166
    • Exponent (EXPO) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Gap (GAP) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $30
    • MSC Income Fund (MSIF) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $15
    • O-I Glass (OI) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $17
    • RBC (RY CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$231
    • Rubrik (RBRK) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $97
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $170
    • Sylvamo (SLVM) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $59
    • Vita Coco (COCO) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Yum (YUM) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $173
  • Downgrades
    • Adverum Bio (ADVM) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $5
    • Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Biomea Fusion (BMEA) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Celcuity (CELC) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $94
    • Century Therapeutics (IPSC) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink
    • CES Energy (CEU CN) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$13.25
    • Cidara (CDTX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $221.50
      • Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $221.50
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $221.50
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $110
    • HP Enterprise (HPE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
    • Potlatch (PCH) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $46
    • Repare Therapeutics (RPTX) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • Sealed Air (SEE) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $45
    • Superior Plus (SPB CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$8.50
    • Weyerhaeuser (WY) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $26
  • Initiations
    • Akamai (AKAM) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $100
    • Alto Neuroscience (ANRO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $27
    • Axon (AXON) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT $860
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Buy at BOCOM Intl; PT $425
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Fastly (FSLY) Reinstated Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Installed Building (IBP) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • MakeMyTrip (MMYT) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $95
    • NetApp (NTAP) Reinstated Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Nutanix (NTNX) Reinstated Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $90
    • Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $5
    • Pure Storage (PSTG) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $120
    • Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI CN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$31
    • Rubrik (RBRK) Reinstated Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • SFL Corp (SFL) Reinstated Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $9.50
    • Stagwell (STGW) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $10
    • Sunoco (SUN) corp LLC Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $70
      • corp LLC Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $57
    • TopBuild (BLD) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $500
    • Vivos Therapeutics (VVOS) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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